Monday, Jan 14, 2008
Big claim.....
The Times: Goodbye to all that: the worst is over for the global credit crunch
''Global stock markets have suffered their worst early-January trading since records began in the 1920s. Conventional wisdom is again overwhelmingly gloomy - about the global economy, the asset markets and even the sustainability of the global financial and trading systems. However, conditions are not nearly as bad as the headlines and market pundits suggest. In Britain, there seems to be almost no chance of economic and financial disasters comparable to those suffered from 1990 to 1992. ''
Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:53 AM (1052 views) Add Comment
18 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. Adrian Allen said...
The Worst is over?? I thought it had only just begun.
I seem to remember similar claims in the past, unfortunately most journalists have no ideas of the real problems that are happening.
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
If I had to have a stab at the future, this fear will spread into March just as Martin Armstrong's Global Economic Confidence Model suggests. After heavily oversold positions stock markets will rebound in late spring. The question is where will global capital flow next in their search for profit? China and the emerging economies?
The Chinese stocks index is heading north again after a big correction. Will the slashing of western IRs lead to a massive carry trade to the emerging economies. Are we setting up an Elliott wave 5 (final blow-off phase) for Chinese stocks that will peak in 2009 in a speculative frenzy?
I see the Chinese are already piling into gold pushing their futures market to $1000 an ounce.
If you are looking for a buying opportunity, junior gold mining stocks have been battered in December even as gold rallied hard. Mid-tier producers have done well but junior and exploration stocks are ripe for a takeover frenzy. It could be double your money in 6 months in this sector.
3. hpwatcher said...
''most journalists have no ideas of the real problems that are happening.''
I probably agree with that. Some of then aren't really involved at all in what they are writing about. I guess a bit like musical journalists......
4. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
17 years of being an economics journalist and best headline he can come up with is:-
"Goodbye to all that: the worst is over for the global credit crunch"
"In Britain, there seems to be almost no chance of economic and financial disasters comparable to those suffered from 1990 to 1992."
Using the word almost - just in case he is wrong. Then he can say he was right. Almost.
I think some of these journalists just have no idea of the financial problems that millions of people are now in.
5. Icarus said...
Why is it that almost all serious analysis of global finance comes from the US? Apart from the Telegraph's Ambrose Evans Pritchard British 'analysts' take the line that the big, bad credit crunch will be gone by summer (no reason given) and then we can all come out and play. How's this for 'analysis' in Anatole's article? - "the eurozone will suffer more than Britain....because the ECB will resist making the inevitable rate cuts". How do you even start to take issue with a statement like that?
6. alan said...
Roger Bootle (telegraph) has a much more bearish view.
7. Andyh said...
Kaletsky and Smith of the Times are fully paid up members of the New Labour glee club. For the last X number of years they have sung from the same Labour song sheet that all is well in the garden (as long as you borrow cash to buy the seeds and mortgage the gnomes to the hilt). I don't expect their tune to change anytime soon. In their own sweet way they are comparable to that guy who was the mouthpiece of Sadaam (there are no US tanks within a thousand miles of Baghdad blah blah).
8. jack c said...
This article is in sharp contrast to everything I have read from leading fund managers in the past week or so - most think that the credit crunch will run through 2008 and into 2009.
9. C'mon Correction said...
we'll see.....
10. Letthemfall said...
Interesting how the Times has been so out of kilter for some while with the other broadsheets on this subject. Editorial policy perhaps?
11. wiltshire said...
"....almost no chance of economic and financial disasters comparable to those suffered from 1990 to 1992"
How funny. Northern Rock is certainly a disaster that's not comparable to anything suffered from 1990 to 1992 because of course it's not comparable to any financial disaster we' ve ever suffered in this country. Presumably it's a one-off. We shall see.
12. tick tock said...
What does everyone expect the Corporate media to do in such circumstances? These are not public service providers, they are Corporate propagandists. The reporters are not fools, they are liars, and are well paid to be so.
Murdoch's machine will talk up the markets up all the way down to the bottom, that is its job. Its commercial revenue is dependent upon the continuation of the bull market. Ignore them.
13. dbnazz1 said...
The work of a complete buffoon!
If this is the quality of journalism that you get from the Times, then what paper can you rely on for quality economic reporting.
14. renting2 said...
Credit Crunch is soooooo 2007 daaahhling!
15. Symo said...
Only just seen the tip of the iceberg. More write downs to come, fund managers already looking for defensive stocks with 2 years of good yields.
Economics writers can't believe anything they say as if they could read the market why bother writing for a newspaper to earn a crust?
16. hpwatcher said...
My own view is that no one knows.....
17. drewster said...
The housing market is just the beginning. Expect to see more evidence of the credit crunch in credit cards, car loans, overdrafts, and unsecured personal loans. We have rising petrol prices, rising utility bills, rising food costs, and rising mortgage payments. Most people think these are temporary phenonema and are using the credit card to cover the increased cost of these basics. When the reality sinks in that expensive food and petrol is here to stay, we can expect to see rapidly rising defaults on all non-housing loans.
I do however agree with his penultimate paragraph:
"5. In the currency markets, sterling will continue to fall against every other leading currency, partly because Britain is so vulnerable to a serious setback in housing. By the second half of 2008, however, the euro will take over from the pound as the pariah of the global currency markets, since the eurozone will ultimately suffer more than Britain from the slowdown in the global economy because the European Central Bank will resist making the inevitable interest-rate cuts."
18. bystander said...
Drewster, which part, just the bit you highlighted or the whole. Will the euro suffer the same fate and will sterling see something of a revival. Or will we see 1for1 GBP/Euro befor ethe year is out???