Wednesday, Jan 23, 2008

A firm hold then

BBC: Bank votes 8-1 for hold in rates

Any guesses who voted for a cut?

Posted by geed @ 09:58 AM (919 views) Add Comment

13 Comments

1. Little Professor said...

Very surprising - I thought it would have been much more finely balanced than that. Plenty of people were predicting a cut, so this firm hold is reassuring for us bears.

No surprise that our old friend Danny Blanchflower voted for a cut. Full minutes here:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/mpc/pdf/2008/mpc0801.pdf

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 11:08AM Report Comment
 

2. su said...

David Blanchflower

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 11:10AM Report Comment
 

3. Little Professor said...

For most members, no change in Bank Rate was necessary this month. The short-run inflation outlook had worsened markedly.

A second period during which inflation was significantly above target, so soon after the one in Spring 2007, might be more likely to lead people to revise up their expectations of future inflation, particularly if the rise in inflation persisted for longer.

Movements in the yield curve and the depreciation of sterling had already provided some further monetary easing.

Reductions in Bank Rate in two successive months might, given the current conjuncture, encourage observers to think that the Committee was focused more on stabilising demand than meeting the inflation target and so shift the yield curve down further.

The Committee will be able to use the February forecast round to assess the medium-term outlook for inflation, and the impact on that of both the upside risk to inflation in the short term and the downside risk to demand and activity.

It now appears likely that CPI inflation will rise quite sharply early in 2008 and RPI inflation seemed less likely to fall back in the short run than had previously been expected.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 11:12AM Report Comment
 

4. little professor said...

Full minutes here:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/mpc/pdf/2008/mpc0801.pdf

Danny voted for a cut.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 11:14AM Report Comment
 

5. geed said...

Blanchflower! pr!ck! thanks LP.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 11:21AM Report Comment
 

6. confused76 said...

"The financial sector was particularly hit by the slowdown in growth in the last quarter, expanding by just 0.4% - the slowest rate of growth for more than four years - as it was hit by the global credit squeeze.
"We stand by our view that rates will come down again next month, but barring a sudden deterioration in the growth outlook the MPC is unlikely to act aggressively," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec.
"The fact that GDP growth in the fourth quarter held up relatively well supports that view."

We are just seeing the very very early beginning of the crisis of the financial sector. Expect GDP growth to slow down and even go in reverse later in 2008. That will prompt BoE to cut aggressively.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 11:41AM Report Comment
 

7. little professor said...

Blanchflower's reasoning for voting for a cut:

One member judged that the outlook for UK-weighted global demand had materially worsened,
especially in the United States. Consequently, the risk of a sharp and persistent slowdown in activity had also increased.
There was little likelihood that wage bargainers would seek higher awards if CPI inflation increased temporarily
judging by the recent behaviour of pay. In that member’s view, a further cut was warranted and would
be consistent with financial market expectations.

Yes, CPI's raging, but please don't increase my wages.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 11:57AM Report Comment
 

8. Brightfox said...

This pillock should be removed from the BOE, he clearly has a poor grasp of economics....Mr. Brown should surely be embarrased by him! However i doubt this very much

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 12:28PM Report Comment
 

9. Albertini Albertino said...

About time someone did some analysis on these voting figures, then. Since Doveid joined the MPC in June 2006, he's voted twenty times - once for a rise (the famous 9-0 of May 2007). In those twenty occasions, there have been 44 votes for a rate-rise, so he's running at less than half-'average'.

He's also been in a 1-8 minority wanting a cut three times. Do we question his independence or his intelligence first?

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 12:30PM Report Comment
 

10. handle_it said...

What is the real rate of inflation ?

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 01:25PM Report Comment
 

11. hpwatcher said...

What those folks at BoE think or do, is now of absolutely no consequence......

I bet Brown now wishes he had called that election.....

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 02:01PM Report Comment
 

12. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...

Brown will have his ar5e kicked straight out of no.10.

Not a moment too soon. Never could stand the man from day 1 of No.11.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 02:41PM Report Comment
 

13. David Smith's Sub Prime. . . said...

Blanchflower is being paid by the housing and property makeover 'industry'.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 04:26PM Report Comment
 

Add comment

Username   Admin Password (optional)
Email Address
Comments
  • If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
  • If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Main Blog | Archive | Add Article | Blog Policies