Saturday, Dec 15, 2007
It's only a matter of time
The Times: Why the ‘R’ word can’t be ignored
"It would take a brave soul to believe the Brown line that boom and bust has been abolished and that moderate economic growth can be sustained forever without pause. With bankers in a funk and supplies of credit drying up, monetary policy – the main lever of economic control - just won’t work as it used to. Cutting interest rates is like pushing on a piece of string." The Times also has a story on lower Christmas sales in todays paper. The next month will set the tone - when the Christmas optimism is over and January and February bring another few months of negative numbers.
Posted by growler @ 08:58 AM (404 views) Add Comment
7 Comments
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1. stillthinking said...
The economy will certainly go into recession. We have borrowed too much money. Instead of paying 20 billion(whatever it is) a year for the last 5 years, and spending 20 billion a year for the -next- 5 years (keeping everything going), we have just spent 40 billion a year over the last five and now things are going to stop. This did cause an incredible boom, but it was in China, external not the UK. As the Chinese want to buy ownership of companies not consumables, trading with them is a mistake pure and simple, while we allow foreign ownership (which we actively encourage).
I think we will have a severe recession, and the ridiculous thing, is that provided we don't get to the point where people are starving, there will be a lot of people who will benefit. I think, as long as I can keep eating, I will eventually benefit from a recession in this country as it will act as a natural fire and pull everything down. Excess taxes, bloated public sector, high house prices, the lazy hand out culture, high immigration, high rail fares, these will all be unsupportable in a severe recession. Bring it on.
2. Afrobaggie said...
Aren't we then talking about the D word?
3. Quiet Guy said...
"business leaders and ministers frown at any mention of the R word, or worse, the S (for slump) word."
How about the D word, Depression?
I hope I'm wrong but I suspect that some really nasty problems are sneaking up on us. It's funny; years ago I could not wait to see the housing market turn. Now that it's happening, it a bit scary.
4. Sold My Soul To The Never Never Never said...
Still thinking - Mind you don't get ill. My husband was made redundant this year (£3410 redundancy package) and is struggling to get a reasonably paid job - due to his company selling out to the Americans and sending all the work to China. He is working in our low wage economy now and we have to live on the handouts now to subsist with our living - tax credits. Be careful what you wish for!
5. Renting said...
I think Quiet Guy may very well be right about 'really nasty problems'. Until I found this site I hadn't heard of K-Waves. Now I've read up on it and Gann cycles, coupled with $50 trillion US debt it all looks very scary indeed!
It's worth looking at www.kwaves.com/
Renting
6. hpwatcher said...
The question isn't whether there will be a recession, that is a given, but whether there will be a depression...
7. stillthinking said...
I have got a bit of a sniffle now you mention it. I neglected to mention that I have no responsibilities either. My view is either enter an almost feudal world of landowners/tenants as a tenant, with no real chance of changing places, or watch the whole shebang collapse as a fresh roll of the dice. I, and many others under 40, don't really have any money banked in the UK so whatever. How a family can exist in London as things are is impossible to understand. I wouldn't even try it.
I was looking at flats in west london today, and apparently there is a shortage of cheap (to rent) one bed flats at around 800-900 a month (the unbelievable bottom price), while there are huge amounts of two bed flats going spare at 1100 a month. The last step of another 50 a week seems to be too far for most. Whatever happens to prices, make no mistake, there is a real shortage of places to live.