Sunday, Dec 09, 2007
Interesting bet
The Times: Property mogul bets on house price rise
NICK LESLAU, one of Britain’s best-known private property entrepreneurs, is taking a £234m bet that house prices will rise over the next 10 years.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 04:47 PM (1703 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Can the MPC IR cutting bail out the housing market?
It doesn't matter.
Whether we have inflation or deflation, it is clear that monery supply growth will continue to go vertical.
The end result is fiat currency destruction.
2. Suck My Deposit said...
Well he would wouldnt he.
3. wiltshire said...
"The average age of the tenants in Swiss Re’s deal with Leslau is 82, so it is expected the majority of the properties will be sold off over the next decade. When a property is sold, Leslau’s company Prestbury will be entitled to a share of the proceeds."
House prices can only go up of course. I bet others did just as imaginative deals back in the very late 80s/early 90s and probably lost the shirts off their backs. You never hear that though do you? No, not when there's need for more VI propaganda. Hold tight everyone, it'll be alright in about 10 years. I hope he crashes and burns. Vulture.
4. Icarus said...
Question - what does this guy know that the rest of us don't. Answer - nothing. The fallacy is that somebody who made an inspired winning bet will continue to make winning bets.
5. Str2007 said...
selling 3,400 unmodernised cabbage & wee properties? quality.
6. Davros said...
Who can say what might happen in 10 years, just look at Japan.
We can safely say today is the top of the market, so in 10 years time, if we're still at the same record measures of affordability, houseprice would have kept pace with inflation. Not a great investment really is it?
7. bidin'matime said...
STR2007 - 'cabbage & wee properties' - I like that description!
8. drewster said...
This really does seem like a crazy deal. There may be some complex technical factor in the structure of the bet which means it isn't purely a bet on house prices rising. The article contains suspicious phrases like "a complex property derivative deal" and "innovative transaction" - it sounds like the dot-com boom, "things are different this time".
9. Amorgos said...
10 years and property will probably go up a bit from what it is now. But now is certainly not the time to go long on house prices! If he was a decent investor he'd be beginning his bet in a dip.
This sounds to me like a publicity stunt more than a serious money making bet.
10. planning4acrash said...
My fear about this money supply thing S2R? The fact that it hasn't resulted in currency devaluation to date suggests that there is resistance in the economy, which suggests a tipping point and system shocks somewhere in the future. Just like global warming, lets call it economic warming shall we? Maybe world leaders should have met in kyoto to discuss world financial warming prior to discussing actual global warming. No doubt the two are interlinked given the effects of today's unchecked economic growth and environmental destruction,.
11. planning4acrash said...
My fear about this money supply thing S2R? The fact that it hasn't resulted in currency devaluation to date suggests that there is resistance in the economy, which suggests a tipping point and system shocks somewhere in the future. Just like global warming, lets call it economic warming shall we? Maybe world leaders should have met in kyoto to discuss world financial warming prior to discussing actual global warming. No doubt the two are interlinked given the effects of today's unchecked economic growth and environmental destruction,.
12. planning4acrash said...
My fear about this money supply thing S2R? The fact that it hasn't resulted in currency devaluation to date suggests that there is resistance in the economy, which suggests a tipping point and system shocks somewhere in the future. Just like global warming, lets call it economic warming shall we? Maybe world leaders should have met in kyoto to discuss world financial warming prior to discussing actual global warming. No doubt the two are interlinked given the effects of today's unchecked economic growth and environmental destruction,.
13. voiceofreason said...
p4c, does this mean that we can have "greenhouse cash" too ?
Maybe we also need to reduce our cash footprints, live a cash neutral lifestyle.
Invest in "renewable cash" sources.
There are a lot of parallels.
Recycled cash could after all be thought of as debt backed by deposits as collateral. Compared to non-renewable cash that is debt backed by exotic financial instruments. etc etc
14. Deadspider said...
"NICK LESLAU, / is taking a £234m bet that house prices will rise over the next 10 years."
"Leslau will pay a lump sum of £234m to Swiss Re"
"When a property is sold, Leslau’s company Prestbury will be entitled to a share of the proceeds"
"Prestbury, which is backed by Sir Tom Hunter, Scotland’s richest man"
Leslau is using other peoples money . Not his own .
He's merely betting his reputation whilst keeping his :
"amassed / personal fortune of some £200m"
I wonder if he actually has a personal stake in this bet .
15. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
If he's right I'll eat my hat.
;)