Monday, Dec 10, 2007
Ha bloody Ha!
Yahoo Finance: Will the housing market crash?
"I expect property prices to rise by around 5% next year, due to the strong fundamentals of undersupply and falling interest rates. The Government forecasts that 4.4 million more people will be living in the UK by 2016, and house builders will not be able to supply enough property to meet that demand, defending robust house prices and even driving them up further."
Posted by soldinjune @ 11:34 AM (808 views) Add Comment
9 Comments
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1. Davros said...
IMF, the worlds most senior economists.
Stuart Law, salesman, with a vested interest in the housing market.
Who do you trust?
2. confused76 said...
"Finally, the buy-to-let market is helping to hold up the housing market and rents are rising more than they have in years. Yes, repossessions are increasing, but those properties are being bought by investors. While these sales are at lower prices, people who don't need to sell are not discounting."
hold on a second... BTL properties are being repossessed, so BTLetters are losing money. Nice to see that Stuart-teflon-suit Law acknowledges that. Then if the same properties are being bought by other investors at a discounted price, that does not matter. There are dumber and smarter investors, but the simple truth is prices are down.
3. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
"There is nothing visible that is going to cause a serious recession in the UK"
0.25 cut in rates and we have to listen to fools like this.
So if thats the case then why did interest rates just go down?
4. wdbeast said...
It is not often that I wish people bad, however I will make an exception!
How does Stuart Law sleep at night.
5. Lukeskywalker said...
Funnily enough, I've just posted a comment on this on another site:
Mr Law's commentary reads like that of a man deluding himself; or perhaps others. The fundamental indicators that are quoted by these property experts - if expert means a purveyor of views that are in the interests of their own businesses - were absent (and today are still absent) before the US housing market began to fall.
Let's disseminate each of his statements:
"The IMF's statements are completely flawed." - The International Monetary Fund aren't of the habit of giving flawed information.
"How can the UK housing market be over-valued.. ..when people are still paying and prices are still going up?" - Perhaps because it’s a market and markets function by being over or under representative of intrinsic value, most of the time. Remember the dot-com boom? Of course he understands the irrational psychology of markets, so this comment is just reckless rhetoric.
"House prices drop when interest rates go through the roof." - Again, all eyes on the US. Markets boom and fall because the participants change sentiment, that's really all. Interest rates don't need to be "through the roof" when consumer gearing is high.
"Oil prices don't have the same impact.. ..inflation is very much under control." Has he seen the Factory Gate figures this morning? A 16 year high.
"The prospect of a recession, but all the economic fundamental indicators are positive" - If we're looking at spot figures, they are. But the US is facing very real threats of recession and we are unlikely to "de-couple". At the least, the economy is slowing. And again, you don't need a recession.
"There is nothing visible that is going to cause a serious recession in the UK or globally." - I'm afraid there is a risk of recession or at least very slow growth in the US. Where has Mr Law been recently? I suggest he log on to Bloomberg.
"The global nature of the market means the UK isn't as tied to the US as it used to be." - Just plain untrue. All economists look at the US because of its size and influence. Just what has made Mr Law think this has changed?
"Finally, the buy-to-let market is helping to hold up the housing market." - Well, if anything is clear of the housing market today, it's that BTL is suffering, it's economically unviable, and the lenders have pulled many of their BTL products.
6. Lukeskywalker said...
Mr Law's commentary reads like that of a man deluding himself; or perhaps others. The fundamental indicators that are quoted by these property experts - if expert means a purveyor of views that are in the interests of their own businesses - were absent (and today are still absent) before the US housing market began to fall.
Let's drill down into each of his statements:
"The IMF's statements are completely flawed." - The International Monetary Fund aren't of the habit of giving flawed information.
"How can the UK housing market be over-valued.. ..when people are still paying and prices are still going up?" - Perhaps because it’s a market and markets function by being over or under representative of intrinsic value, most of the time. Remember the dot-com boom? Of course he understands the irrational psychology of markets, so this comment is just reckless rhetoric.
"House prices drop when interest rates go through the roof." - Again, all eyes on the US. Markets boom and fall because the participants change sentiment, that's really all. Interest rates don't need to be "through the roof" when consumer gearing is high.
"Oil prices don't have the same impact.. ..inflation is very much under control." Has he seen the Factory Gate figures this morning? A 16 year high.
"The prospect of a recession, but all the economic fundamental indicators are positive" - If we're looking at spot figures, they are. But the US is facing very real threats of recession and we are unlikely to "de-couple". At the least, the economy is slowing. And again, you don't need a recession.
"There is nothing visible that is going to cause a serious recession in the UK or globally." - I'm afraid there is a risk of recession or at least very slow growth in the US. Where has Mr Law been recently? I suggest he log on to Bloomberg.
"The global nature of the market means the UK isn't as tied to the US as it used to be." - Just plain untrue. All economists look at the US because of its size and influence. Just what has made Mr Law think this has changed?
"Finally, the buy-to-let market is helping to hold up the housing market." - Well, if anything is clear of the housing market today, it's that BTL is suffering, it's economically unviable, and the lenders have pulled many of their BTL products.
7. Letthemfall said...
No fool like a VI fool. It's embarrassing really.
8. The Baldman said...
This just does not make any sense. By the way obviously Assetz are property advisors. No vested interest!!
9. Tsaleem said...
does talk a lot of sense here