Monday, Dec 17, 2007
Economic Depression/Kondratieff Winter, till 2010-12
Safe Haven: Credit Crunch Update
Bottom Line: The Fed will continue to intervene and will stop at nothing to save our banking systems. This incessant intervention will eventually hyper-inflate our currency, but the lending crisis will still remain/get worse (credit will become unavailable). These issues will probably take several more years to play out, so I don't think we will see the ultimate bottom, and the ensuing Economic Depression/Kondratieff Winter, till 2010-12.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 03:22 PM (1189 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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4. Hey said...
The longwave Kondratiev cycle in America has had a 40 year periodicity since 1900, which economic depressionary periods happening at 1893, 1929, 1973 and 2008. This is causes by scientific revolutions in physics that happen at 80 year intervals. The scientific revolution (paradigm change) cycle causes an associated cycle of industrial revolutions that happens at 80 year intervals on average (1790, 1890, 1970). There are economic depressionary periods during the industrial revolutions and 40 years after the start of each revolution. This is why there have been economic depressionary periods every 40 years. The industrial revolution depressionary periods are milder than the ones that follow them that I call technological acceleration depressions.
5. Hey said...
I wrote this comment in June of 2009. Now it is Dec. 24, 2009--I think that the economic recessionary period will deepen now. People will probably start calling this a depression. In 1989, I wrote up a theory of economics based on industrial revolution cycles that happen at 80 year intervals. The model predicted a boom for the US similar to the 1920s boom until about 2010. Then it predicted a 1930s type depressionary period. This year, the major world goverments pumped up spending and lending and etc. to try to stimulate the economy. But we are in a technological acceleration phase of the quantum mechanics based industries. (My theory of economic depressions is based on a model that scientific revolutions happen at 80 year intervals, each revolution in physics (ie the relativity-QM paradigm starting in 1905) enables industrial revolutions to begin about 60 or 70 years later (1970s QM industrial revolution) if factors of the past replay (ie no disaster, etc.)
People in the US haven't been buying like they did even last year, according to recent polls by Gallup. If their polls are correct, in the past few weeks average weekly spending is down substantially from the same period last year.
The QM bases industries began in the 1970s and 1980s, then developed and we had the boom in the 2000s. However, we have reached the mid-life period of their industrial life cycle. During this time, there is increasing automation causing rising unemployment, as well as oligopoly formation in the major QM based industries. Until this process is finished, unemployment will increase, leading to reduction in consumption. Other factors are involved in technological acceleration depressions. You can see my website or articles at cust38.metawerx.com.au On there are papers written in the 1990s that describe this economic period well, and have my economic predictions.
Merry Christmas 2009
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