Monday, Dec 24, 2007
Can normal market cycles be 'controlled'?
Firstrung: Investors ignore market cycles at their peril
John Wood, senior fund manager of the J O Hambro Capital Management (JOHCM) UK Opportunities fund.
"What we are currently experiencing is a normal market cycle, and we will see the usual phases of "Regret" and "Recovery" following a "Recession" . The time to buy equities will be during the "Regret" phase."
Posted by converted lurker @ 12:28 PM (379 views) Add Comment
2 Comments
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1. enuii said...
I don't think we are seeing a normal market cycle here, this is much bigger, and could probably be called an engineered depression.
See http://aftermathnews.wordpress.com/2007/05/22/estulin-tracks-bilderberg-2007-meeting-and-its-attendees/ about 2/3 the way down the page for the conspiracy theorists angle on this, summarised below.
As the world turns, and as oil and natural gas supplies dwindle while demand soars dramatically, especially with Indian and Chinese booming economies who want all the trinkets and privileges of an Western way of life, we, as the Planet, have crossed the midpoint of oil production and discovery. From now on, the only sure thing is that supply will continue to diminish and prices will continue to increase. In these conditions world conflict is a physical certainty. End of oil means end of worlds financial system, something which has already been acknowledged by Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times
Jose Barroso, President of the European Commission, announced several months ago during the unveiling of the new European energy policy that the time has come for a post-industrial age. To bring the world into the post industrial age, you first need to destroy the worldīs economic base and create another Great Depression. When people are poor, they donīt spend money, they donīt travel, and they donīt consume.
IMO it is becoming more apparent that the easiest way of curbing the demands on the worlds finite resources is by engineering a global depression to let market forces cure our environmental ills as a result of our increasingly unsustainable lifestyles and the post industrial western consumer economy.
2. planning4acrash said...
So, how to plan to not be bottom of the pack? Certainly, one thing is to pay off all debts. Even student loans, where we saw rates double from 2.4 to 4.8% this year alone. Participate in the credit culture and you are doomed to a kind of slavery (if you can sustain your debt) or being ostracised (poor credit rating) if you default. Secondly is recession proofing your career and thirdly, being wise with investments. Right now? I'm not sure whether there is a trend yet for where will be good for investment post crash. There will be short term safe havens, but beyond that, I'm waiting for a trend. Career wise? Well, you are better off sinking 10k into reading an MSc in a field that is sustainable and that you are willing commit to for the long run than sinking it into housing, or any other form of investment (I think training is the best investment right now). There are many people in many industries without good skills would could be the ones for the chop, but the highly skilled will wreap well when they maintain a decent living as the cost of living falls.
I have put my money where my mouth is, have done two post-grad courses in the past 3yrs, got some good work experience and am now focusing all efforts on paying off student loan.