Times: If your house isn’t selling, "do a Madonna" and beware agents desperately seeking business

The desperate need of EAs for business could have an adverse effect on sentiment and on property prices. UAUUUAHHH AHHAHHA An agent determined to secure an instruction will produce the most optimistic valuation. Certain estate agencies are notorious for this practice, but it is most dangerous when the mood has turned from exuberant to reflective. The inflated price will have to be cut when buyers fail to materialise. Such reductions send out the misleading message that the market is falling sharply, rather than merely proving that the initial valuation was unrealistic. MISLEADING MY @RSE!! ITS CRASHING

Times: Problems at Paragon Mortgages

"ARE WE LIKELY TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DEMAND FROM PROPERTY INVESTORS? Some commentators are predicting a drop in demand of as much as 20 per cent, while the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors predicts that buy-to-let is set to become the preserve of the wealthy. It has released figures suggesting that to purchase a buy-to-let property you would need to stump up a deposit of about £65,000 – effectively 30 per cent of the property’s value." Dead in the water, dead in the water UAUUUU AUAUUAAUUAU

Times: Rate-setters split over cost of borrowing

Jonathan Loynes, of Capital Economics, said: “Gieve’s vote may have been partly motivated by his extra interest in the financial markets in his role as Deputy Governor for financial stability and the criticism he received in the wake of the Northern Rock debacle.”

ThisWasMoney: The buy-to-let bubble bursts

So could buy-to-let be Britain's sub-prime? Certainly, the economics no longer stack up. Rental yields have fallen to the point that they no longer cover mortgage and maintenance costs. But not everyone will be able to carry the burden for long. The selftaught landlords, who came late to the market, might well seek to dump property, driving prices and rental values down further causing a downward spiral. YES YES AHAHAH HAHHAHH AHAHH

BBC News: UK lender pulls sub-prime range

Kensington Mortgages is pulling out of the sub-prime mortgage market because of current market conditions !

BBC: England failure 'may hit economy'

Phew, I was getting really concerned that a slowdown may be something to do with financial mismanagement and lack of House Price Inflation and associated MEWing but the good old BEEB have eased my worries by saying that a slowdown is do with the nation not buying England kit and merchandise. Thanks heavens.

FT.com: Banks bail out bond insurer CIFG

Caisse d’Epargne and Banque Populaire, two French mutual banks, have pledged to inject $1.5bn into CIFG, a bond insurer, to enable it to weather the collapse of the subprime mortgage debt market.

BBC: McClaren sacked as England coach

Steve McClaren has been sacked as England coach following his side's failure to qualify for Euro 2008. It is widely accepted that interest rates will be dropped in December along with a surge to buy over priced junk propery by buy-to-sweat investors and first-time-fibbers.

Firstrung: Nationwide benefits from Northern Rock debacle as prime mortgage lending shrinks by 40%

Reading through the coded spin N-Wide only made £300mil, nothing in these days when you can burn through £25-30bil inside weeks. Also their share of the mortgage market has fallen from 10% to 5.7%, clever positioning? Its share of net mortgage lending fell to about 5.7% in the period, down from its typical market share of more than 10%. Nationwide revealed a conservative and sustainable approach to lending and focus on quality delivered prime net lending of £3.3 billion (September 2006: £5.6 billion) and total group net lending of £3.6 billion (September 2006: £5.9 billion), while ensuring asset quality remains much stronger than industry averages

Nationwide: UK House Prices Adjusted for Inflation STILL climbing

Well, looks like we ain't listening. For those of you waiting for the real house price graph to be updated, if you go the Nationwide website, it shows prices are STILL going up beyond the trend rate.

Times: Banks feel the pinch as covered bond trading is suspended

Banks won't lend to each other because they worried another one of them is broken. We will be going back to a barter economy soon! One place I read recons this "covered bond market" (anyone understand these?) might be shut till the end of the year. "A key source of liquidity for cash-strapped banks – the covered bond market – appeared to be closed off yesterday after trading between banks in the secondary market was officially suspended and the mortgage bank Abbey was forced to abandon a new issue of bonds."

FT Alphaville: Securitisation Headaches for UK Mortgage Lenders

Securitising mortgages has become too expensive for HBOS. If the UK's biggest mortgage bank thinks securitisation is too expensive where does it leave the rest of them?!

BBC News: Hips home packs get full roll-out

Home information packs (Hips) will be required for all properties being sold in England and Wales from 14 December, the government has announced.

Guardian: HIPs to be extended to all properties

Woohoo! The government's controversial home information pack (Hip) scheme will be rolled out to all properties from December 14, it was announced today. The packs, which are already compulsory for all homes on the market with three bedrooms or more, are designed to speed up the selling process and reduce the number of sales that fall through.

CNN Money: Wall Street playing with more funny money

For the seven banks Fortune surveyed, level three assets totaled over $430 billion, equivalent to 110% of the banks' combined equity. That number will likely increase in the fourth quarter, making bank balance sheets even harder to read

FT: Steady output eases pressure for rates cut

Manufacturers will increase prices over the next three months, according to a survey published on Tuesday by the CBI employers’ body. An unexpectedly resilient set of output figures and the evidence of pricing pressure revealed in the survey made it more likely that the Bank of England would postpone cutting rates, economists said.

This is Money: Paragon sparks fear of meltfown in buy-to-let

Paragon shares have crashed by about 90% this year, making it worth just £90m. It needs to raise £280m by Feb to repay its obligations to the banks. In a matter of months, buy-to-let has gone from a great source of income to a potential disaster area.

This Is Money: Boom but no bust for housing

Stephen Nickell is chair of the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit, a quango which advises the government on property prices. He is a former member of the BoE Monetary Policy Committee, which sets interest rates. He says: "I wouldn't be all gloom and doom about the housing market. Any hint of a slowdown and there are people who will come forward - there are queues of people waitingto get a share of the action. The housing market has this fundamental support." It all boils down to the basic law of supply and demand. Houses are too scarce, so prices will carry on rising, he explains. "It is not a bubble phenomenon, but based on fundamentals."

MoneyWeek: The real reason why people lose confidence in markets

Whilst pundits like to blame media scaremongering, it is the sudden realisation of just how much we now spend on petrol - or the collapse of Paragon or Northern Rock - that really rattles us.

FT.com: Storm worsens over UK Revenue’s data loss

If you still believe in "economic stability", "no more boom ..." and the rest of the spin, welcome to the western hemisphere's favourite recently-discovered banana republic. Rampant HPI, debt out of control, a run on a bank, massive and ineffective public sector, faked statistics and staggering incompetence from a government that would like to know everything about you and watch your every move. What happens when the ID card database winds up in the hands of some jihad-oid death brigade? Thanks guys - "the innocent have nothing to fear"?

FT.com: Rock chief could get £380,000 pay-off

Adam Applegarth, the chief of Northern Rock, looks set to get as much as £380,000 when he leaves the embattled bank next year, in spite of claims that any payment would be an “insult” to the millions who have suffered from the lender’s turmoil.

FT.com: Fears of slowdown in US hit markets

A growing realisation that the global economy will not escape a US slowdown saw stocks around the world tumble on Wednesday while investors sought safety in government bonds. Fears intensified amid concerns that more bad news from banks could emerge while US markets are closed for Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

The Street: E*Trade in Free Fall

I have an account with interactive brokers and it has a rating of BBB which is slightly concerning.
http://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/download/sp_rating.pdf
I have yet to check other brokers that trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange and compare.
Anyone one with any recommendations of what broker to switch to?

Safe Haven: Three Steps To Protect Your Funds Now

Short piece summing up how to keep your money safe. Lots of good links to other articles.

Telegraph: FTSE battered as Northern Rock faces relegation

Beleaguered Northern Rock is facing the humiliating prospect of being relegated from the FTSE 100 straight to the Smallcap index. Such a dramatic decline has not been seen since the dotcom bust. Sub-prime worries affected other lenders and homebuilders, and derivatives are now pricing in a 7% fall in house prices next year.

BBC News: Hip assessors claim lack of work

Another example of inflated Government stats, 'It's quite clear... there are far too many people now qualified to become home inspectors and energy assessors compared to the government's statistics of what they need'. The problem apparently is that 'too few homes are being put on the market to make a living' - Oh Dear

Fool: Don't Bank On Interest Rate Cuts

The November industrial trends survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) shows that the 21% net balance of manufacturers saying that prices will rise next quarter is the joint-second highest since 1995. Uhuuhhhhuuuuuuuuuuuuuhuuuhuhuhu

Bloomberg: Europe Suspends Mortgage Bond Trading Between Banks

Are banks taking away their toys until people start to play 'fairly'? European banks agreed to suspend trading in the $2.8 trillion market for mortgage debt known as covered bonds to halt a slump that has closed the region's main source of financing for home lenders.

FT: The $25bn Citi CDO liquidity put and who else has one

Several CDOs were created by Citi in 2005 that borrowed from technology used in designing SIVs- another market in which Citi was a leader. The rationale was that a CDO which could issue short-term commercial debt (alongside its traditional issuance) would have access to a broader funding market and would be able to more dynamically manage its funding portfolio. To mitigate any CP rollover risk, Citi entered into a series of “agreements” which forced it to buy the CDO CP if no one else would. As Mr Rubin calls them, “liquidity puts”.

telegraph.co.uk: Selling houses: Purchasers put off by perfection

Fully renovated properties are not selling, as buyers seek out unmodernised homes to 'do up' as a way of adding value in a slow market. Zoe Dare Hall reports

Telegraph.co.uk - 20/11/07: Property market: Sell in the new year

Television property expert Phil Spencer tells Graham Norwood why the market will be better in 2008 Phil Spencer has a simple message for owners wanting to sell their homes despite the market downturn and the approach of Christmas: don't do it.

Telegraph: Rate Cut is a "Real Possibility" next month

The Bank of England appears to be going to lower rates even though inflation is rising and oil is near $100 USD a barrel. It's like 2005 all over again. And just to keep the housing market going. BALLS :(

FT: If housing affordability is such a big issue in the UK, why does every man and his dog seem to be a landlord these days?

Buoyed by rising prices and low interest rates, the growth in private residential investment has been extraordinary. But the party could be over. For starters, the numbers no longer add up. Net rental yields are now below financing costs and are likely to stay there. That means landlords have to support their investment from other sources of income while praying that capital values rise. Already demand for buy-to-let mortgages is slowing, and in the third quarter 6 per cent of landlords with tenancies up for renewal chose to sell instead, A THIRD MORE THAN A YEAR AGO AUUUUUUHHHHAHAHHAHHA

Bloomberg: Europe Suspends Mortgage Bond Trading Between Banks

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- European banks agreed to suspend trading in the $2.8 trillion market for mortgage debt known as covered bonds to halt a slump that has ***closed the region's main source of financing for home lenders***.

The Independent: A hagglers market

Chris Wood, vice-president of the National Association of Estate Agents, says that the Naea itself uses the Propertysnaketo figure out who these bad estate agents (who overvalue properties in order to get attract business) are. British buyers are now going to have to involve themselves in a famously un-British pastime: haggling. Is it time for buyers to start making those famous cheeky offers?

Times Online: Tin revival drives delighted men back down derelict Cornish mine

"The last working tin mine in Cornwall has been given a new lease of life, nine years after it closed, thanks to demand for metal in China and the developing world. South Crofty is expected to employ 400 people and help to regenerate one of the poorest regions in Britain." --- Could this start happing all across the former coal-mining regions of northern England and south Wales? What could this mean for the relative property values of the south Wales valleys compared to London?

MoneyWeek: Why now's the best time of year to buy Canadian miners

Commodities expert Dominic Frisby reports on why Canadian mining stocks present some fantastic buying opportunities, plus the outlook for gold and the UK property market.

Independent: Is the buy-to-let boom over?

Britain's biggest buy-to-let lender crashed yesterday. The game may be up for property investors

The Wall Street Journal: Mortgage Giant Fuels Worries With Steep Loss

The hoped-for saviors of the U.S. housing market could use some first aid themselves. The wider-than-expected $2.03 billion loss posted yesterday by Freddie Mac for the third quarter makes clear that the mortgage giant and its rival Fannie Mae -- government-chartered companies that buy and guarantee mortgages -- have less power to prop up the housing market than some politicians hoped. Freddie Mac said it recently has been forced to sell mortgages to ease its financial woes, and it is rushing to raise capital through a sale of preferred stock likely to be launched next week.

FT: standby for generalised systemic financial meltdown

“Gold is for optimists. I’m diversifying into canned goods.” Yes this guy really sees things heading over a cliff.

Firstrung: Is the CML trying to bury bad news by only releasing gross lending mortgage figures?

CML Director General Michael Coogan commented: "The next few months will be a testing time as ongoing pressures in financial markets feed through into the wider economy. Funding constraints will continue to restrict lending activity and make loans more expensive. The Bank of England's recent Quarterly Inflation Report reinforced the likelihood of a reduction in rates early next year, and that should provide some relief for borrowers sooner rather than later."

Firstrung: Building Society net advances down 30% year on year - BSA

"Although building society lending in October was greater than in previous months, activity is still subdued in comparison to last year, with gross advances amounting to £4,654m in October, compared to £4,936m in October 2006. The mortgage market looks set to cool further as the impact of the higher interest rates and tighter credit conditions more generally continue to feed through."

Firstrung: Three-month sterling rate is the highest since 19 September

The strong demand for cash over the traditionally illiquid New Year period has pushed three-month sterling BBA LIBOR rates to a two-month high. Interbank lending rates rose during August and September as banks became more reluctant to lend to each other amid market volatility and worries stemming from the spread of the US sub-prime crisis into global markets. Rates reverted to historically more normal levels for shorter-term lending, before beginning to rise again in early November. Today's three-month sterling rate of 6.48625 is the highest since 19 September.

International Herald Tribune: British mortgage lender falls as it considers share sale

Shares of Paragon Group, the British mortgage lender that gets all its funding in capital markets, sank as much as 50 percent Tuesday after the company said profit had fallen and it might need to raise £280 million in a share sale. "The future for Paragon hinges on the reopening of the securitization market," said Simon Willis, an analyst at NCB Group in London. If the market does not loosen by February, he said, Paragon might be forced to look for a buyer.

BBC News: What caused Japans recession?

Worried? you bet. This report shares a lot of what is happening now with what happened to Japan - and they are STILL suffering. It's only unemployment that is different - or is it? maybe the figures we see aren't all we should believe?

MoneyWeek: Who wants to be a property millionaire?

Is it really possible to become a property millionaire in a matter of years? Even when property prices across the board are falling? A good many people would have you think so. According to Brad Rosser of Inside Track it 'just depends where you buy and what you buy'. So Merryn went along to one of their free seminars to find out what they knew that she didn't.

The Telegraph: Surfer dude stuns physicists with theory of everything

"It may even be possible to test his theory, which predicts a host of new particles, perhaps even using the new Large Hadron Collider atom smasher that will go into action near Geneva next year."

Times Online: Bank votes 7-2 to keep interest rate unchanged

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7 to 2 in favour of holding the UK interest rate at 5.75 per cent as it emerged deputy Governor Sir John Gieve voted for a quarter-point reduction to borrowing costs.

Times Online: What will happen to my mortgage – and my hard-won savings?

Northern Rock and Paragon shareholders should sell now...Paragon may increase mortgage rates...the banks' future is uncertain, where all this leads to?

BBC: Bank voted 7-2 to hold UK rates

Policymakers at the Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep UK interest rates at 5.75% earlier this month, minutes show. The two policymakers who did not vote to hold rates were David Blanchflower as well as deputy governor John Gieve.

ThisWasMoney: Buy-to-let faces meltdown threat

"The rug has been pulled out from underneath Britain's buy-to-let mortgage boom, threatening a meltdown in the property market. Paragon plans to slash the number of buy-to-let mortgages it offers by 50% in 2008 - a lead which other lenders are expected to follow. Concerns about the future of buy-to-let mortgages were fuelled by a separate announcement from Bradford & Bingley - the UK's biggest buy-to-let mortgage lender - that it has taken urgent measures to raise ready cash." Bye bye

House Price Crash NewsBlog: Mewing like a cat on LSD.......

From 9 months ago: Feb 27th 2007

Some friends of mine keep asking me "So when is this big crash going to happen then". I tell them, be patient, you'll see the first creaks soon enough. THEM: "Yeah, but you've been saying that for the last 5 years - and my house is now worth 5 times what it was 5 years ago, so you're the mug" ME: "True enough, but tell me, have you actually sold and realised that profit or are you just mewing like a cat on LSD? When the stock market tightens credit, your house may resemble an engine block strapped to your body as you are thrown into the River of Financial Despair"

Shanghai Daily: Ethanol, touted as an option to oil, turns out be hot air

ETHANOL, the centerpiece of President George W. Bush's plan to wean the United States from oil, is 2007's worst energy investment. The corn-based fuel tumbled 57 percent from last year's record of US$4.33 a gallon and drove crop prices to a 10-year high. Output in the US tripled after Morgan Stanley, hedge fund firm D.E. Shaw & Co and venture capitalist Vinod Khosla helped finance a building boom. Even worse for investors and the Bush administration, energy experts contend ethanol isn't reducing oil demand. Scientists at Cornell University say making the fuel uses more energy than it creates, while the National Research Council warns ethanol production threatens scarce water supplies.

Bangkok Post: Nikkei falls below 15,000 on US losses

Tokyo stocks fell in Tuesday morning trading, sending the benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average below 15,000. Lingering worries about the US mortgage crisis kept Tokyo market players away from buying as the stronger yen, which makes Japanese goods more expensive abroad

telegraph.co.uk: Worse to come, warns Bank chief

The Bank of England deputy governor has warned that money markets may be set for an even bigger squeeze before the end of the year, as wholesale borrowing rates soared yet higher.Sir John Gieve, the Bank's deputy governor for financial stability, told a hedge fund conference that "there still may be more bad news to come".His words echo those of the Governor, Mervyn King, The three-month London interbank offered rate for sterling, known as BBA Libor, rose to a two-month high of 6.49pc, indicating that banks are unwilling or unable to lend to each other.

telegraph.co.uk: benign D&O market was about to turn as the credit crunch is

The insurance industry could face a $6bn (£3bn) bill for claims against directors relating to the sub-prime mortgage lending crisis.William Sturge, a partner at law firm LG, said legal action is expected to trigger many directors and officers' (D&O) insurance policies.He said the ".Markel - one of the largest underwriters of non-US policies in Lloyd's - said the potential for claims was "enormous". David Jones, managing director of its PI division, said: "There will be class actions, mainly in the US, although there could be repercussions in the UK." "

ft.com: Man Grp Chief Exec: One Hedge Fund In 10 To Go Bust

The market turmoil this year has claimed a large number of hedge fund scalps, with notable collapses including funds from Bear Stearns, Australia's Basis Capital and Sowood Capital. UBS closed its Dillon Read Capital after subprime losses, and many other funds have closed to withdrawals and are struggling to survive, including some from Mallorca-based Absolute Capital and London's Cambridge Place Investment Management and Wharton Asset Management.

The Times: Business News Article

Oh dear oh dear... What tangled webs they have weaved...

FT: Rightmove forecasts house price decrease in November

Sorry I am posting old news, music to my ears: "average UK house price is £239,986 in November down from £241,642 in October" expect more price falls in December and in the first part of next year" seriously consider dropping your price and taking an offer now rather than holding out, and offered even less in a few months’ time," "motivated sellers are starting to cut their prices and will need to be the cheapest on the street to sell" "major conurbations"

Bloomberg: At Subprime Event Too Early to Tell Who'll Survive

They dubbed it ``The Survivors' Conference.'' In early November, 2,000 people who handle asset- backed securities for a living crowded into a ballroom at the JW Marriott hotel in Orlando, Florida, just 3 miles from Disney World, to hear speaker after speaker explain why 2008 may be their worst year ever.

Bloomberg: Bradford & Bingley Sells $8.7 Billion Loan Portfolios

Bradford & Bingley Plc, the U.K.'s biggest lender to landlords, sold 4.2 billion pounds ($8.7 billion) of home and commercial property loans to improve cash flow as credit costs increase.

This is Money: My experience of an Inside Track seminar

The Money Week Editor gives a great account of a property seminar where she's told the subprime crisis is not an issue, it's a 'cracking' time to buy in Florida and that anything about property slowdowns - especially in the newspapers - is a 'pack of lies'. Of course!

MoneyWeek: Prescott’s pointless housing policy

Why has the government been turfing people out of their homes and knocking down perfectly sound houses? It's all down to the Pathfinder scheme - possibly the most ill-thought-out policy this Government has ever introduced.

Times Online: Brokers predict the end of ultra-low rate mortgages

confused76 posted this in a comment on another article, I felt it was worth sharing on the main blog. "The best two-year fixed rate you can get is 5.48% from Giraffe Money. Lenders are becoming more cautious in light of the credit crunch and many will look to widen their margins and add an extra layer of protection in the coming months."

Guardian: Lender's woes send chill through 'try-to-let' market

"It shouldn't be called buy-to-let, it should be called try-to-let. The whole industry needs a rethink.' The buy-to-let market has grown strongly in recent years on the back of hundreds of thousands of private investors snapping up flats and houses to rent. However, there are increasing signs that rents are falling and many buy-to-let investors are not making enough money from their tenants to cover their mortgages

Times Online: Property market: your questions answered

Experts are predicting that the property market next year will be stagnant — rather than suffering any significant falls. Owners will simply hold off selling, if they can’t secure a price they are happy with, and the reduced number of homes for sale should keep prices high.

Times Online: Rumsfeld logic serves as guide to direction of US economy

There are, in principle, three ways that a housing collapse can affect the broader economy and financial markets: 1. Directly, through a cutback in construction activity. 2. Indirectly, through a negative wealth effect on consumer confidence and demand for credit. 3. Indirectly, through damage to bank capital and, thus, the supply of credit.

Guardian Unlimited: Price of a pint could rise 60%

Apparently the bad weather has caused an increase in the price of hops. Yeah right.

MSN Money: Has the US recession already begun?

Sorry if this has been posted already.

Guardian: Business Article

34 minutes ago they were reporoting that Northern Rock Shares have slumped to 60 pence valuing the company at £250 squillion!!!!!! That is 1% of the value that Swervyn Mervyn allowed to be put on it.... Nice to know that the economies in good hands...

Daily Mail: One million homeowners face a 60 per cent jump in mortgage rates

More than a million homeowners face a jump in mortgage payments of up to 60 per cent when their cheap fixed-rate deals end. Analysts fear the impact will result in a surge in repossessions. The Council of Mortgage Lenders is so concerned that it has taken the extraordinary step of suggesting that some homeowners should sell their property rather than risk losing it.

Telegraph: Buy-to-let specialist Paragon crashes

In a clear warning that the bank could be forced into run-off, Paragon said that, although the value of its existing mortgage assets "remains strong", "if we are unable to secure new warehouse facilities... we will have to scale back new lending activities significantly and manage costs accordingly". Any counter arguments - anyone ?

BBC News: Paragon hit by finance problems

Another one bites the dust !!

EuroInvestor: Northern Rock

Any experts out there that can explain what could happen to Northern Rock if the share price is valued at next to nothing ? Quite dramatic stuff, looking at the graph, it can only go one way - - - - down.

MoneyWeek: Why the market turmoil is far from over

Even by this year’s volatile standards, yesterday was a horrendous day for global stock markets. The FTSE had its worst day since the big credit squeeze in August and the Dow slumped below 13,000. So what happened?

Bloomberg: Paragon Shares Plunge After Lender Plans Rights Offer

Paragon Group shares sank as much as 50 percent in London trading after profit fell more than analysts estimated at the U.K. mortgage lender, which may need to raise as much as 280 million pounds ($547 million) by selling new shares. Paragon said it slowed lending to new customers and withdrew certain mortgage products to limit the risk of writing unprofitable business.

Telegraph: Buy-to-let group Paragon crashes on crisis

Shares in buy-to-let specialist Paragon crashed this morning (down 50%) after the company warned that it may have to launch an emergency rights issue as the credit crisis begins to dry up alternative sources of funding. Yes! This may mean I won't have to read anymore BTL advertising masquerading as a 'news article' on the BBC website

Times Online: Credit jitters send UK bank shares tumbling

Jitters over the credit crunch inflicted fresh pain on investors yesterday as shares in Alliance & Leicester, Bradford & Bingley and other banks fell heavily and the wider stock market lurched lower.

Times: Paragons future in doubt

Paragon shares in free fall today; where Paragon leads the Buy to Let market surely follows.

iht.com: Swiss Reinsurance, the biggest reinsurer in the world

Swiss Re takes $1 billion subprime hit as crisis spreads beyond banks Swiss Reinsurance, the biggest reinsurer in the world, said Monday that it had taken a $1.07 billion write-down for the value of some derivatives, making it the latest casualty of the U.S. subprime crisis that is now spreading beyond lenders and investment banks

ft.com: Fed and markets squaring up for rate-cut showdown

It would be hard to imagine a worse moment for the Federal Reserve and the market to collide over an interest rate cut that the market wants and expects, but the US central bank is not prepared to deliver. Yet the risks of such a collision appear to be increasing by the day. Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says the Fed and the markets are locked in an "increasingly rigid standoff" over the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the next Fed policy meeting in December.

times online: Barratt chief calls for cut in interest rates to stem falling sales

Shares in Barratt fell yesterday to a four-year low, down 5 per cent to 480p, part of a wider sell-off in both housebuilding and commercial property stocks as fears intensified that both property markets were heading for a repeat of the 1990s recession.

theaustralian.news.com.au: Greens warns of double-dissolution

AUSTRALIA could go to the polls again within 18 months if Labor wins Saturday's election but not a Senate majority, the Greens say. The coalition is fighting to retain a wafer-thin majority of 39-37 in the upper house. The Greens, Australian Democrats, Family First and independent candidates Nick Xenophon and Pauline Hanson are vying for the balance of power when the new Senate sits from July 1, 2008.

Times: Taxpayers to foot the Northern Rock bill

“In the last few weeks this Government has provided the equivalent of 30 Millennium Domes to this bank without even the prospect of a decent pop concert at the end of it.”

London Evening Standard: Housing market logjam could see prices fall

"The London property market is stuck in a logjam that could lead to a sharp fall in prices, estate agents warned today. Ed Mead, sales director at Douglas & Gordon, said prices in central London were already down about five per cent." Chris Brown, president-elect of the National Association of Estate Agents cites lots of muffled excuses, apart from the main reason; PROPERTY IS OVER-PRICED Poxtons minis seen at car auctions.

Times: Barratt sees sharp fall in sales of private homes

Private buyers down 14 percent as punters stay away from Barratt developments as housing market falters at the start of a long and economically cold winter for the housing biz.

In The News: Darling defends Rock decisions

Rock now has government backed loans totalling 24BN Pounds yet its share price falls 21% further today as Darling insists that the lending was all guaranteed against "quality assets" including mortgages!

Thomson Financial News Limited: UK social housing likely to keep strong government support - S&P

MUMBAI, Nov. 19, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Standard & Poor's (NYSE:MHP) Ratings Services said the UK government's announcement of planned changes to the social housing sector is unlikely to result in any change to the already-strong support to the sector

Reuters: FTSE skids as credit woes hit banks

Going down, down, dooooooooown.

CNN: Cleveland's mortgage meltdown has sparked a crime wave in the nation's hardest hit area for troubled homeowners.

Most of us who read this blog secretly or openly hope prices will crash here like they are in the USA at the moment. Read this and be careful what you wish for !

FT.com: The nervous wait before the plunge

The US experience shows what should have been obvious: house prices can fall without a recession as a trigger. Dizzying height and a rise in interest rates to modest levels are enough. The UK has both those attributes in spades. ......That is a lesson easily learned from a look at the US. (Part of the excitement of a rollercoaster ride is to stand in the queue listening to the screams of those whose ride began earlier.) US house buyers were told that a national fall in house prices would not happen. It has.

BBC: Oil prices rise after Opec summit

Or will we still see the press pig VIs flogging their dead horses as they now clearly think the sole purpose of the MPC is to control UK house prices (UK economy ?) as opposed to inflation ?

CNN: Crime scene: foreclosure

Cleveland's mortgage meltdown has sparked a crime wave in the nation's hardest hit area for troubled homeowners. The first thing that happened after owners moved out of foreclosed homes in Slavic Village was that squatters and looters moved in, according to Mark Wiseman, director of the Cuyahoga County Foreclosure Prevention Program. "In the inner city, it takes about 72 hours for a house to be looted after it is vacant," he said. Putting a house back together takes money, more money than the restored home could bring on the market. And stopgap programs, such as razing derelict houses, aren't feasible - Cuyahoga County only has a few million dollars available for demolition work, and Wiseman estimates at least $100 million is needed.

Bloomberg: U.K. Home Prices Fall; Sellers Told to Ask for Less

The average asking price dropped 0.7 percent to 239,986 pounds ($491,000) from October, Britain's most-used property Web site said in a statement today. From a year earlier, the cost of a home rose 7.9 percent, the least in 17 months. Rightmove conducted its survey from Oct. 7 to Nov. 10.

Daily Mail: Logjam may force down property prices

The London property market is stuck in a logjam that could lead to a sharp fall in prices, estate agents have warned. Over-optimistic sellers are refusing to accept 'too-low' offers, creating a massive gap between asking prices and actual sale values.

Evening Standard: Housing market logjam could see prices fall

The London property market is stuck in a logjam that could lead to a sharp fall in prices, estate agents warned today.

New Statesman: Will UK house prices crash?

No, says CML's Paul Samter. Prices realised may have dropped relative to asking prices, but this is a long way from a full blown house price crash. The balance between supply and demand, the strong UK economy, predicted falls in interest rates next year and a shortage of housing supply will help to support prices.

Market Oracle: US Dollar Devaluation is a Supply and Demand Problem

17.9pc growth means a doubling rate of 4 years.

With wages and inflation less than 5pc this newly created money (which is debt) is not being eroded away. The final blow-off debt spkie continues.

BBC News: Broker closed for sub-prime loans

A mortgage broker has been closed down and two others fined for mis-selling sub-prime mortgages. The Financial Services Authority (FSA) took the action against the three small firms after investigating the sale of sub-prime mortgages earlier this year.

Times: Home economics: a loss of market confidence

"Sometimes, though, Rics is in danger of creating a situation that its members are keen to avoid and its head-office economists do not expect: a loss of market confidence, leading to a sharp fall in house prices." "A report by Michael Saunders, of Citigroup, called Bye-Bye, Buy to Let, argues that the economic fundamentals have turned firmly against buy-to-let. Rental yields are below mortgage rates, in some cases, decisively so � the number of available buy-to-let mortgage products has fallen by 40% since July, and many landlords will fear the days of easy capital gains are now over." David, listen to the economists, the professional ones, not the clowns forced to write in mainstream papers for a living

FT: Amateur buy-to-let investors flee

“In particular, we have seen the amateur buy-to-let investor drop out, while there are now more negotiations over price than a few months ago, which is actually helping the professionals. It is basic economics that the release of land will match the demand.” So demand and supply means that prices are falling... but I thought immmmmigrants, diiiivorces, plaaanning peeermissions... wuaauhahahhahahh

Bloomberg: Bond Market to Fed: Recession Threat Means More Cuts

'The economy is so bad the central bank will have to lower interest rates at least three-quarters of a percentage point to avoid a recession.' Hunt predicts the Fed may lower its target to 2 percent in the next few years.

NY Times: As Owners Feel Mortgage Pain, So Do Renters

In the foreclosure crisis of 2007, thousands of American families are losing their homes without ever missing a payment. They are renters in houses whose owners default on their mortgages — a large but little noticed class of casualties. Many renters say they never even knew their buildings were heading for foreclosure.

Times Online: Northern Rock plunges after 'cut-price' bids

Shares in Northern Rock plunged 16.2 per cent to an all-time low today after the beleaguered mortgage lender admitted that the proposals it received last Friday to rescue the heavily indebted business were "materially below" its market value.

Reuters: European stocks extend fall, index negative on year

LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - European equities fell across the board on Monday and hit the day's lowest levels as banks again topped losers in a market still worried about the impact of exposure to the risky U.S. mortgage market. By 1115 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst index (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) was 0.6 percent weaker at 1,485.2 and sharply below the day's highs of 1,502.8. At its lows, the index turned negative on the year compared with a 15 percent gain at the same time last year.

Times Online: Big energy users eager to invest in nuclear stations

Big British energy users, including manufacturers and transport groups, are so concerned by the threat of rising electricity prices that they are considering investing in new nuclear power stations

MoneyWeek: Why 0% house price growth for 2008 is optimistic

Nationwide has predicted 0% movement for the property market next year, whilst estate agents Savills have announced that things will be worst for those in the North. In London and the South East (where most of these big agents make all their money), life won’t be quite as bad, they reckon. But they would say that, of course... and it could actually be a lot worse, says MoneyWeek's John Stepek.

BBC market news: Barratt Share Price

Don't know much about share prices, but can anyone explain to me why Barratt Developments have lost over 60% of their value since February? I thought there was a housing shortage and the government was promising to build lots of houses??

Telegraph: Lloyd's braced for wave of credit crunch claims

Boom.

Lloyd's of London, the world's largest insurance market, is bracing itself for hundreds of claims from company directors as fears mount that the credit crisis will unleash a wave of lawsuits. Sources said that up to 30 notifications had already been received. The chief executive of one syndicate said: "There is always going to be a delay before the insurers feel the pain. " A fortnight ago, a class action lawsuit was filed in New York by investors who had bought shares in Citigroup, alleging the investment bank misled them by falsely reporting financial statements.

Times Online: London office prices suffer as big banks put lettings on hold

The multi-billion-pound London offices market is set for further price falls as evidence emerges that big banks have put their requirements for large new lettings on hold for up to a year and are opting for short-term flexible leases.

BBC: Rock offers 'undervalue the bank'

Northern Rock has said the proposals received so far from potential investors were "materially below" the stricken bank's current share price.

BBC: The Pound In Your Pocket - 18 November

"It does not mean that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket, in your purse or bank has been devalued."

Telegraph: Credit limits cut by wary lenders

Credit card holders are having their borrowing limits slashed as lenders try to protect themselves from potential exposure to bad debts. The tightening of limits is even affecting customers with good repayment records and comes on top of a stricter attitude to issuing cards to new borrowers.

Frstrung: Average national house prices drop by 0.7% (£1,656), with all regions bar London falling - Rightmove

The depressed state of the housing market has resulted in sellers dropping their asking prices by an average of 0.7% (£1,656) this month. The net effect is that prices have remained at a standstill for the last 4 months, reducing the annual rate of increase to just 7.9%. Rightmove expects this slowdown to continue, and forecasts that overall prices will be flat at 0% in 2008. We expect more price falls in December and in the first part of next year, before a more stable financial environment and underlying demand lead to some minor price gains later in the year.

Rightmove press release: Rightmove November report

All regions bar London falling; usual flim-flam about stagnation next year (no falls), but there is a plea for IR cut.

telegraph.co.uk: Lloyd's braced for wave of credit crunch claims

Lloyd's of London, the world's largest insurance market, is bracing itself for hundreds of claims from company directors as fears mount that the credit crisis will unleash a wave of lawsuits.

FT.com: The nervous wait before the plunge

Is the rollercoaster about to drop precipitously?

FT: Buy-to-let crisis hits UK housing plans

Uuuuuuuuuuuu... cannot believe the blackest weekend for the BTL crowd (to date, only to date) ends with this great news: there is no supply shortage! on the contrary, it is a true supply glut of "luxury apartments" and the only minor tiny tiny problem is that “The recent tightening of lending criteria by the major building societies has had a material impact on the buy-to-let market". But of course there is not enough "affordable" properties. Stuart Law, dont worry, there'll be plenty affordable after the crash!

ft.com: Non-doms’ look again at staying in UK

Scores of wealthy foreigners are meeting advisers to review their assets and weigh up whether pending tax changes for “non-domiciled” residents will force them to leave the UK. Foreigners and their employers are increasingly worried that the new tax treatment they face will be so expensive it will not justify staying, say accountants and solicitors. ft.com

nytimes.com: Stock Market Likely to Stay Under Pressure

Now, as problems in the credit markets are cutting into profits at banks, brokerage firms and insurance companies, that growth engine is looking more like a millstone. Financial stocks are down 17.6 percent for the year, and many market specialists expect that they will remain under pressure in the coming year, making it harder for the broader market to regain its footing.

Telegraph Blogs: When estate agents turn desperate

To my mind, the clearest sign yet that things are taking a turn for the worst arrived this morning in the shape of a surprise text to my phone from an estate agent. “Hi. This one is just on the market, 5 bed detached house with 3 receps and en-suite in Langshott. Are you able to view?” I nearly fell off my chair. Contact from an estate agent!

Reuters: Northern Rock to have government loan extended: report

The UK's illustrious chancellor Darling has bowed to pressure from Northern Rock and is working on a plan to change the status of the funding to 'restructuring aid' in order to circumvent EU guidelines in state aid.

Mirror: So are house prices set to crash?

"LOUISA, 33, has made millions knowing when to buy and sell property. With Kirstie Allsopp she presents Inside Property on London Tonight on Mondays at 6pm. She says: I WILL stake my house on the fact there will not be a property crash like the one in the late 1990s. The economic situation is completely different. When I bought my first property then, interest rates were 11 per cent as opposed to 5.75 per cent today. There was high unemployment and we didn’t have the Financial Services Authority – a buffer between lenders and the Bank of England. They are acting as underwriters in the Northern Rock fiasco, making money there safer than ever. We didn’t have that sort of security in the 1990s." Ah ahha ahhah ahahha

The Oil Drum: Canada: The Finance Round-Up: November 16th 2007

Oil people are interested in this because it impacts upon oil prices. It is all just as relevant for the study of house prices and the soundness of the economy in general. The headline article says the following: According to Gregory Peters, head of credit strategy at Morgan Stanley: There's a greater than 50 percent probability that the financial system will come to a grinding halt. You have the SIVs, you have the conduits, you have the money-market funds, you have future losses still in the dealer's balance sheet in the banks [..] That's all toppling at once. Enjoy!

TimesOnline: Housebuilder sale sparks family feud

A FAMILY feud is brewing at one of Britain’s largest private companies after a group of shareholders at Miller Group, the housebuilding and construction empire, put its majority stake up for sale.

Zirana: Real Estate Broker Bobbie Lemberg Interview

Bobbie Lemberg is a former Director of the California Association of Realtors. She sees Sunnyvale and Cupertino home and property prices remaining stable and a good bet for investors, inspite of a real estate crash in the neighbouring areas and in the rest of California.

Times: UK heads for worst growth in 15 years

“This is a very difficult time to interpret the economic tea leaves,” said Graeme Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors. “The evidence to date suggests we shouldn’t be too pessimistic, but my instinct suggests we’re entering the most difficult period for 15 years.” Overreliance on debt and house price inflation to sustain the growth... does this ring any bell? Or are these oracles just begging for IR cuts?

Times: Why bother buying?

Why waste your cash on buying a property when you could rent instead and splash out on frocks and handbags?

Times: British Land set to pounce if property prices wobble

"Mr Hester said that commercial property prices generally were falling. Further sharp drops were expected as the sector struggled with wider macro-economic uncertainties. “I cannot say definitively where or when it will end,” he added" C'mon BTLers, exit now before the market across the board becomes a falling knife

Market Oracle: Gold and Silver Correction is Normal and Necessary for the Bull Market to Continue

Just a quickie about the "expected" fall in the gold price. Conclusion - although servere (corrections to a bull trend often are servere and brief - particularly when the RSI is way overbought) corrections provide an opportunity to accumulate more.

FT: UK agent hit by cancelled home sales

Britain’s biggest chain of estate agents, Countrywide, is to close down branches after being hit by a spate of cancelled sales amid the gloomiest outlook for the housing market since the early 1990s.

Bloomberg: Goldman Sees Subprime Cutting $2 Trillion in Lending

The slump in global credit markets may force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion and trigger a ``substantial recession'' in the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman's forecast reduction in lending is equivalent to 7 percent of total U.S. household, corporate and government debt, hurting an economy already beset by the slowing housing market."What it all comes down to is that Joe Six-Pack has been taking equity out of his house and supporting the U.S. economy,''

Times' Anne Ashworth: Is it Christmas already? Tell Santa to break out a rate cut without further delay?

"Even the most downhearted RICS members do not report any panic selling, confirming the suspicion that there lies ahead not a price slump but a period of stagnation, with the number of transactions subsiding. Meanwhile, after the signal from the Bank of England that interest rates could be cut next year, some people are already looking beyond the slowdown, trying to spy out the locations that could be the first to start moving upwards again – or become the next hotspots" ... and of course the American "infidels" are killing themselves on the road to Bagdad

Firstrung: Yuppie dreams lie in tatters

"We remember Yuppies for their power suits, lavish lunches and a live for today spirit, and many may well have thought the champagne lifestyle would never go flat. But at least the original Yuppie generation tended to have their parents to fall back on when financial difficulty struck. The next generation of young professionals no longer have the same level of family safety net, as their parents are likely to be equally financially stretched - but the older generation can at least play a vital role in encouraging their children to save more for the future."

Firstrung: Lenders mortgage rates not influenced by MPC rates anymore

"Our advice to homeowners is sit tight and watch this space, as it provides increasing evidence that the mortgage industry is moving away from being influenced by movements in base rates by the MPC."

THE AUSTRALIAN: Audacity of the Northern Rock game

Anatole Kaletsky | November 16, 2007 LAST week I asked, perhaps a little hyperbolically, whether tens of billions of pounds of taxpayers' money should be diverted from health, education and social services to subsidise the bonuses of stockbrokers and salaries of bankers.

Safe Haven: More Declines in Asian Holdings of US Tsrys

Foreigners were net sellers of US long term securities in September at $14.7b after $150.7b in net selling in August.

The Times: Property prices slip in suburbs

This is one the clearest and spin free articles I've seen in a while. No only are prices sliping but in the words of the article "Several big lenders said that they could not guarantee that they would cut their standard variable rates if the base rate fell."

BBC: House Prices "face slowdown"

Amazing how the BBC and Fionnullla change their tune on a sixpence.
Not two weeks ago house prices were going up up and away driven by immigration, population growth, divorce, demographics, lack of building ...
IT IS OVERSUPPLY OF CREDIT CAUSING A BUBBLE AND HIGH PRICES YOU MUPPETS !!!

Telegraph: Elderly sell homes to cover care bills

Nearly one in five people has to sell all their assets, including the family home, to fund their place in a care home, according to new research. Amid the ongoing scandal of people who have worked and saved all their lives giving up everything when they go into a home, it found a chronic lack of awareness of the cost of care. Six in 10 adults over the age of 50 have no idea how much care homes charge until they are faced with the reality - which is around £25,000 to £30,000 a year.

Telegraph: Warning over rate rise by 'devious' lenders

Nearly five million home owners are facing dramatic increases in their monthly mortgage bill next year, as "devious" lenders raise their rates despite the Bank of England signalling that it will cut interest rates. On a fixed-rate deal of 4.95 per cent taken out two years ago, the monthly repayment was £1,031 a month on a £250,000 interest-only mortgage. These payments will shoot up to £1,583 when the deal ends....Some serious pain on the way!

Fool.co.uk: The Future of House Prices

We figured it was high time we rounded up some of these predictions for house price growth in 2008. Nationwide: 0% Hometrack: +1% Assetz: +5%

BBC News: The Pound In Your Pocket - 18 November

BBC trying again to make it palatable

times online: Lenders may not pass on rate cuts

Major lenders including Halifax, RBS, Lloyds TSB and Barclays said yesterday that they could not guarantee that borrowers would benefit from any base rate cuts next year.

Times: Homeowners brace themselves for a cold front on the property market

Anne Ashworth and Judith Heywood, who just 2 WEEKS AGO were adoring the landbitch Rosie Miller, now write: "The pain of the property market slowdown of 2008 will not be equally shared. The rich, in homes of £2 million-plus, may barely notice the downturn and could become richer, while the relatively poor could become even poorer. Most economists and estate agents are forecasting that homes worth £350,000 or less in all areas will be those hardest hit in the slowdown." OK, this defies any logic but what do you expect. I post more links about the BTL black weekend in the comments

FT.com: Time to nationalise Northern Rock?

If current proposals for the Rock are unattractive it should be nationalised, run down and sold off a bit at a time over six or seven years.

A bit like the 1970's and 80's really.

Times: Commercial property confidence worst since 2003

No laughs, no shadeufreude (is the spelling correct?) but I have heard of people who really lost big money in property funds this year. and no hope of any rebound, this century at least. "The findings from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors are likely to stoke fears that the commercial property market is heading for a collapse not seen since the early 1990s." One thing about the RICS is that they guessed the timing of the last crash right (months before others had any clue)

World Net Daily: Feds raid Liberty Dollar offices

Apologies for being a bit off topic but the house price mess we have today is very much linked to speculation with fiat currency. Have you ever considered trying to set up your own private currency to escape inflation? Here's what happened to a company that tried.

BBC "News": Northern Rock's chief steps down

"Bloody Hurrah!"

BBC News: Is this the end of the muffin top?

From the catwalk and into M&S, high-waisted trousers are now firmly part of the fashion mainstream. Is this farewell to the fleshy overspill inevitable when wearing hipsters? Tenuous, I know!

BBC: House prices 'face 2008 slowdown'

House price growth is set to stall next year as the market witnesses a "significant slowdown", building society Nationwide has warned. There is no evidence that house price growth has completely stopped and if the BoE starts cutting rates it is 2005 all over again! SH*T!!!!

Times Online: A&L dives on credit worries

Property groups were also on the slide as RICS data showed demand from tenants had fallen dramatically. British Land was down 5 per cent at 867p, driven by Lehman Brothers cutting from overweight to equal weight and warning that the market was fearful of a further writedown of the unsold Meadowhall shopping centre and risky further City developments. Land Securities lost 4 per cent to £14.39 thanks to Citigroup cutting its price target. UK Commercial Property Trust was down 5 per cent to a new low of 68p.

Gold Eagle: November 19th, 2007

Written in 2004, this article is about the Mayan Calendar and the tensions between east and west civilizations. Food for thought.

Unfortunately, precisely on November 19th 2007 (according to the Mayan Calendar) forces will kick in which will cause the economic infrastructure to start unravelling. It is on that day (according to Calleman's interpretation) that the collapse of the financial infrastructure will manifest.

Anyone for shorting the FTSE100?

BBC News: Credit squeeze forces rate rise

Like all lenders Standard Life has seen its costs rise in recent months. Borrowers have been warned that they could face higher mortgage rates amid signs that lenders are feeling the effects of the global credit crunch. Standard Life said its standard variable rate (SVR) will rise by 0.15 percentage points to 7.46% on Monday. Other lenders could now follow suit, analysts said.

BBC: D-day for Northern Rock bidders

Potential buyers for Northern Rock have until Friday to submit their offers. I can just imagine Applegarth submitting his business model to Dragons Den. I think he would hear "I'm out" from all 5 dragons in record time. On to more serious matters I'll organise a cooperative if anyone wants to join me. After careful consideration an much research I will invest thirty quid. Anyone fancy a punt? I don't think NR would get much more than £100 on Ebay

Bloomberg: MBIA, Ambac Downgrades May Cost Market $200 Billion

``We shudder to think of the ramifications,'' said Greg Peters, head of credit strategy at New York-based Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value. ``You have politicians, taxpayers, municipalities, states. It just opens up a Pandora's box. That is a huge destabilizing force.''

The Telegraph: Market freeze to sour festivities

"Federal Reserve was last night forced to pump its biggest combined cash injection into the financial system since just after the September 11 attacks in 2001."

"London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) surged beyond the 6.3pc level for the first time since mid-September"

The Telegraph: The Stock Market and the Yen

If the EUR YEN breaks through the 1.59 (last hit on 12 Nov) barrier in the next fews days then IMHO the carry trade will implode and stocks tumble to below August's lows It is at 160.99 ad 10:10 AM http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/13/14/default.stm The UK IR cuts have been signalled for early next year. Get your savings out of GBP and into gold or yen. The GBP has only one way to go - down.

The Telegraph: A perfect storm for gold as mines left empty

At $1000 an ounce, it forecasts a share feast: Barrick up 65pc, Newmont 80pc, IAMGOLD 90pc, NovaGold 90pc, and Centerra 100pc.

Reuters: House price growth to hit zero in 2008

Even the VIs are talking about 2008 being the weakest year in more than a decade. But I love the way we're still all talking about 'growth', even zero growth . . .

Telegraph: Deutsche Bank in ownership court row

If banks cannot prove ownership and eviction cannot take place, will people eventually get to keep their homes with their debt written off? Please tell me i'm being totally naive!

Times: House price growth to collapse next year

Better late than never Fifi. The property market is due to suffer its worst year since the mid-1990s as houses fall in value across the country, Britain's biggest building society gives warning today. Nationwide said that house price inflation would collapse from 9.7 per cent at present to precisely 0 per cent next year - below the expected inflation rate of around 2 per cent, meaning that prices will fall in real terms.

sky news: house prices set to end

The UK's house prices boom will soon be well and truly over, according to one of the most respected property market commentators.

Guido Fawkes' blog: £24,000,000,000 of Public Money is a Matter of Public Interest

Yesterday the FT lost a High Court battle to publish the investment memorandum being circulated in the City for Northern Rock. In it was revealed that by the end of this year £24 billion will have been borrowed from the Bank of England by Northern Rock ... Everybody in the City already knows what is in the memo. The government just doesn't want the political embarrassment.

propertysnake.co.uk: Reduced properties

Just though to post my record of the number of reduced price propertyes on property snake: 13 OCT--> 86,097 14 OCT--> 91,997 16 OCT--> 94,484 19 OCT--> 95,606 21 OCT--> 103,531 26 OCT--> 107,403 01 NOV--> 113,835 07 NOV--> 117,145 13 NOV--> 126,232 15 NOV--> 129,055

Tgraph: Emigration soars as Britons desert the UK

"Last year, 207,000 British citizens - one every three minutes - left the country while 510,000 foreigners arrived to stay for a year or more. The majority of people leaving the UK go to New Zealand, France, Spain or Australia. The British made up more than half of the 400,000 moving abroad" 400k moved out! so only 110k net influx... yet another nail in the coffin of the housing market!

Times: How to deal with blatant blackmail

The Government and the UK Taxpayer faces being milked of multi-millions of pounds as City financiers cash in on the Northern Rock debarcle.

telegraph.co.uk: Emigration soars as Britons desert the UK

More than 50 per cent of the British emigrants moved to just four countries in 2006 - Australia, New Zealand, France and Spain. Eight in every 100 went to the USA.

Times: Standard Life increases SVR

It is credit risk repricing that has made mortgages more expensive. Mervyn is powerless, unless... unless he decides to fund the lending a la Northern Rock for all the other lenders. Painted in a corner, the UK house market has nowhere to hide. God bless the Pound. I spare you my usual laugh, but I am laughing... this time at Mervyn.

Reuters: Weak data, BoE send pound to 4-1/2 yr low vs euro

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Sterling fell to a 4-1/2 year low against the euro on Thursday as weak UK retail sales data fanned speculation of an early rate cut with more to follow.

guardian: Northern Rock boss sold £2.6m of shares while urging employees to keep buying

Why do we always let these crooks get away with it?

The Times: Rate cut nears as retail sales drop sharply

"The first fall in high street spending for ten months has increased the likelihood of a pre-Christmas rate cut" Why has it ? All complete b****cks from the Times.

theroxylandr: Kondratieff wave

The current Kondratieff wave will be completed when the mortgage debt will collapse back to historic levels of the start of new wave, i.e. 10%-15% of GDP. Obviously, it means that $4-$6 trillion of outstanding mortgage debt will end up in default, which means many millions of homes will foreclose and losses will devastate the banking sector.

This is money: Plans made to 'nationalise' Northern Rock

Treasury insiders have calculated that the loan means that every British taxpayer is in effect lending £730 to the Newcastle-based bank.

FT: Insight: All signals are pointing in the direction of a US slowdown

This article in the FT written by an Economist working for Merrill Lynch. Amongst other things he thinks interest rates are heading for 2%. Bring on the next housing bubble...

Firstrung: All age groups suffering inflation above the official rate - Alliance Trust Research

Not only did the official rate of inflation rise more than expected to 2.1% in October, but Alliance Trust's independent study found that, for the first time since June 2007, all age groups are suffering inflation at above the official rate. Inflation is hitting the over 75s and the under 30s hardest - these two groups are suffering the highest rate of inflation, at 2.5%. Alliance Trust Research Centre's headline findings, based on the updated spending patterns of different age groups and analysis of official October inflation figures are:

Firstrung: First time buyers see financial benefits of buying shrink dramatically

It's still better for first time buyers to buy rather than rent in the UK - but only just. The latest results from the annual UK Rent Versus Buy Index from Abbey Mortgages shows that the average monthly cost of a mortgage for 25 years and the average monthly cost of rent for the same period are converging. Last year, the saving made from buying over renting was over £24,000, whereas this year it's £5,811. That's a massive fall of 76 per cent...

Times Online: Barclays discloses £1.3bn credit crunch hit

Britain's third-largest bank says it still has £2.6bn of exposure to the US mortgage market and has £7.3bn of unsold leveraged loans

MoneyWeek: Why cutting interest rates won't save the housing market

The problems presented by the credit crunch mean that even if interest rates do fall in the New Year, we’re unlikely to see cheaper mortgages with them. The average mortgage rate stood at 6.02% in September against 5.91% in August and it looks like it’s already having an effect on the highly inflated housing market. But because of the Northern Rock debacle, the one that so embarrassed Mr King over a month ago, it’s an above evens bet that the banks have learnt their lessons when it comes to offering mortgages to the poor and insolvent. Now they’re likely to swing the other way, withholding mortgages from all but the most credit-worthy.

uknetguide.co.uk: How to Design Your Own House

"You can save money if you build yourself, but you must be prepared for a long and stressful process. You have to find and buy your plot, often beating established house builders and developers in the race, negotiate planning departments and find an architect you trust."

Ok, so were heading for a crash (or a re-alignment of the markets !!!), that means construction costs will drop, land prices should drop, anyone paid on commission for professional services (Architects, Engineers, etc,.) will find their % of the construction cost will drop. All in all, construction is heading for a recession and there will be some bargains to be had.

Times Online: Mortgage relief as bank rates set to fall

In its gloomiest view of prospects since 2001, the Bank sounded a warning that, even after these likely cuts in rates, growth is still set to suffer a severe setback next year, triggered by past rate increases and the mounting impact of the global credit crunch

wsj.com: Expectations are growing that UBS AG may face fourth-quarter write-downs of as much as eight billion Swiss francs, or $7.11 billion

Just weeks after some of the world's largest banks took tens of billions of dollars in losses on their holdings of debt linked to tainted mortgages, a new concern is emerging: It might not have been enough.

The Telegraph: Markets poised for severe fall, says King

We were set for a good 20pc correction in October but the markets went to early in August. The latter part of November could be the real stocks shake out.

Telegraph: Bank of England hints at interest rate cuts

Home owners are likely to see their mortgage bills slashed next year after the Bank of England indicated that it is primed to substantially cut interest rates. Alan Clarke, economist at investment bank BNP Paribas, said: "We now believe the Monetary Policy Committee will deliver the first interest rate cut at the December meeting. "We expect substantial interest rate cuts throughout 2008, taking the Bank rate to slightly below neutral - to a level of 4.5 per cent in our view."

Press Association: Barclays announces £1.3billion in losses 2 weeks early

Really, Mr Varley? Really Mr Diamond? Are you sure? Chuck and Stan only had small losses, or so they said. And then these losses turned out to be $15bn+. Each. You wouldn't lie to us would you Mssr Diamond and Varley? You wouldn't let your egos get in the way of truth?

MarketWatch: Toxic Export:How America's risky subprime mortgages fouled the world's markets

by DUTCHDAVEY 13 minutes ago Okay the BBC answered my question. Accoring to Moodys) there are still around $1.3trillion in unsteady mortgages in the US which are going to face worsening terms in the years to come. Around half of these will be foreclosed ($600bn) and the properties sold. The sale proceeds, however, will only relieve the bad debt by around $400bn, leaving a shortfall of $200bn. Assuming, optimistically, that house prices dont go into a nose dive, which is quite likely to happen if people can't get new mortgages. Don't forget: that $200bn is still out there!

Times: Bags to be screened on trains in plan to create fortress Britain

Does Gordon know something we don't, should we sell up and leave?

If your read to the bottom of this you may want to!

Reuters: Darling says no rush to change financial regulation

"It was agreed to establish an experts group of financial services representatives to inform the Government's approach to international discussions affecting the financial services industry." Wednesday's meeting was the third of its kind where financial sector leaders such as Morgan Stanley International Chairman Jonathan Chenevix-Trench and Barclays Group Chief Executive John Varley meet alongside politicians such as London Mayor Ken Livingstone. I'm speechless !!!!

Bloomberg: Bear Stearns Cuts Subprime Assets, Limits Writedown

"Bear Stearns Cos., after posting its biggest earnings decline in more than a decade, reduced subprime holdings by 50 percent in the past two months, limiting writedowns in the fourth quarter to $1.2 billion". "Bear reduced its CDO holdings to $884 million as of Nov. 9 from $2.07 billion at the end of August".

Times Online: Bank signals at least two rate cuts next year

The Bank of England today delivered a clear signal that interest rates will fall next year, despite a barrage of data suggesting inflationary pressures are building.

FT: Words of comfort for the grieving investor

Elizabeth Kübler-Ross, a Swiss doctor who worked with the terminally ill, analysed characteristic human reactions to loss or bereavement. Her approach, used today by counsellors around the world, also describes how people behave when dumped by their partner, when they are fired and when they lose their wallets.

BBC: China inflation up on food costs

The Chinese government said the latest inflation figures were largely explained by higher food prices - particularly for pork, a key Chinese ingredient, which climbed by nearly 55%. "We believe the central bank will likely respond with tightening measures including strict controls on bank lending two more rate hikes before the end of the year" said Yu Song, an economist at Goldman Sachs.

FT.com: HSBC warns loan problems are spreading

The UK-based bank warned that problems associated with the subprime mortgage market in the US were spreading to other areas like credit cards and car loans as it reported a higher than expected third quarter writedown of $3.4bn

AMP Capital: Household debt and wealth

The first graph shows debt levels are above Japan's in 1990. It is a shame the author then draws a way too optimiastic conclusion

ThisWasMoney: Benefit of buying a home tumbles by 75%

And this is what a top lender says... "The financial benefit of buying a home rather than renting over a 25-year period has tumbled by 75% over the past year – with tenants better off than owners in half the UK's regions. The latest annual Rent vs Buy index compiled by High Street bank Abbey shows the 25-year saving from buying rather than renting has fallen from £24,000 last year to just £5,811 today." Am I allowed to laugh? we are taking about "benefits" not shaudenfreunde

RTE News: Irish banking system robust - Hurley

"By the middle of this year, investors faced a 36% shortfall between their annual rental income and their annual mortgage repayments on new houses. This is a significant deterioration since 2005 when it was just a 16% shortfall. It added that the rental shortfall for those investing in second hand houses is more pronounced at 43%." This is against a background of BTL surging to 26.1% of outstanding mortgages up from 16.7% in 2006 !!! And now prices are falling ..... OUCH !!!!! Numbers are from Irish Central Bank so no vested interest..just the facts.

abc.net.au: Economist says debt levels more dangerous than inflation

Dr Steve Keene, Associate Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Western Sydney, with that dire prediction of a deflationary bust 12 months ago.

Bloomberg: Bank of England Signals Need for Rate Cut in 2008

``The report gives a clear signal that a series of interest rate cuts lies ahead,'' said Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. ``The MPC will wait until early next year to cut.''

BBC: Bank 'signals' interest rate fall

Interest rates could fall in coming months, the Bank of England has signalled on Wednesday. In its quarterly Inflation Report, the Bank has predicted that inflation will meet its 2% target next year even if rates fall by half a percentage point. Is this wishful thinking or the ideas of lunatics?

BBC: Northern Rock tries to block leaked document

Northern Rock has won an injunction preventing the further publication of a sales document that was sent to potential bidders for the ailing bank. The memo shows that Northern Rock expects to borrow £24B by the end of the year, and the Bank of England will still be waiting for repayment in 2010. The document was posted on the Financial Times' Alphaville website

Hotproperty.co.uk: End of speculation set to help landlords

The credit crunch will help buy to let landlords because it will help remove short-term speculators from the market. Property Hawk has said that more restrictive barriers to entry would ensure that people could no longer 'run blindly' into the market.

CNN Money: Citi's giant write-downs: What did it know, and when did it know it?

Someone is going to jail for this
(Fortune) -- Facts coming out in the media, including those in the Fortune article, "Robert Rubin on the job he never wanted," make it clear that Citigroup delayed for more than a week - from Saturday, October 27th until Sunday, November 4th - in announcing material information about the multi-billion-dollar write-downs it expects to record in this quarter. In the more than a week that passed, there were five trading days - October 29th through November 2nd - in which investors buying and selling Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500) stock did not know that the write-downs were coming.

MoneyWeek: Buy gold - not buy-to-let

With property on the verge of tipping into the 'capitulation' stage of its bull market, gold and silver stocks look much better long-term prospects - though be sure to play the current correction properly.

Times Online: What to do with your bank shares

MILLIONS of investors in bank shares are suffering the worst turbulence for five years as the global credit crunch spreads from Wall Street to the Square Mile.

bbc: UK unemployment total increases

if there are 1.67 million people unemployed... only 824,000 claiming benefits... what are the others living on? Something does not add up, they cant be all sick???Can they??? Or is this how they fiddle the figures???

Times Online: Further slide in mortgage applications

Further evidence of a slowdown in the housing market has emerged yesterday after the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) revealed that the number of mortgages advanced for house purchases continues to fall.

Guardian: Taxpayer may lose £2bn in bank rescue

Thank goodness politicians are restoring my faith in the social system where our hard earned taxes goes to important needy aspects of life like the Health Service, Transport …. For one minute I was thinking they are all a bunch of incompetent inbreed hillbillies that couldn’t cut the grade as success businessmen producing something of use.

The Telegraph: City bankers face bonus and job cuts

London house prices, the last part of the UK still to be rising, will fall in the new year.

Times Online: HSBC discloses $3.4bn credit crunch hit

HSBC, Europe's biggest bank revealed this morning that it had suffered $3.4 billion (£1.6 billion) in bad debts linked to the sub-prime lending crisis in the third quarter.

The Telegraph: Japan battered by credit whirlwind

This is what the UK, US et al have to look forward to. In order to emerge from a k-winter the debt has to be crushed out of the system. Until that is done there can be no k-spring.

Forbes: Credit Crunch Hits U.K. House Market

LONDON - The impact of the global crunch is being felt by the British housing market. House prices in the country have fallen at their fastest rate in nearly two and a half years, according to data from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors released Tuesday.

Bloomberg: Subprime Losses May Reach $400 Billion, Analysts Say (Update5)

Morgan Stanley analyst Anil Agarwal in Hong Kong today cut his rating on the stock of HSBC Holdings Plc to ``equal-weight'' from ``overweight.'' The London-based lender's $2.1 billion of provisions against its $45 billion mortgage services business may be insufficient, he said. Deutsche Bank's Mayo expects writedowns at HSBC, UBS AG, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Barclays Plc to be ``ballpark $5 billion or so'' each, he said.

Daily Telegraph: Drop in house prices fastest for two years

House prices are falling at the fastest rate for more than two years, as high interest rates and unaffordable property freeze the market, new research has shown.

The Times: Northern Foods says price rises will bite in the new year

So now its official, inflation up to horrid levels starting January.

Firstrung: Snakes, black swans, bird flu and turkeys voting for Christmas

An odd thing happened the other day, we published a press release suggesting the housing market was headed for gridlock and cited the various data sources and where they are headed in support of our theory. No less than two major house sales websites commented on the release, findaproperty.com actually published a rebuttal, of sorts. This lead to a very brief off-line discussion between myself and the editor of the site which, similar to Rightmove.com and Primelocation.com, is a superb resource. Despite the fact that all these sites are experiencing increased traffic and a huge rise in listings, we're not entirely sure all is well in that micro industry. RM shares have moved up spectacularly in recent months to be way ahead of their issue price.

BBC News: OAPs 'struggle to pay fuel bills

This is the otherside of the current housing trap in the UK. There are many old people hanging on in homes they can't afford to heat or maintain. Were there more suitable accommodation for them and perhaps some incentive to move, it would free up the house they are living in for younger families. At present it seems that in Brown's Britain that they have to die before housing is efficiently allocated by the market. The real problem is that Brown has broken the housing market by removing MIRAS and introducing stamp duty.

Reuters: Bank of America sees $3 billion debt write-down

Bank of America Corp, the second-largest U.S. bank, said on Tuesday it expects to write down $3 billion of debt in the fourth quarter, as fallout from the nation's housing slump deepens. The pretax loss stemmed from collateralized debt obligations, including those tied to riskier subprime mortgages, and could grow if market conditions worsened, Chief Financial Officer Joe Price said at a Merrill Lynch & Co banking and financial services conference. Price said Bank of America is setting aside more money for housing-related losses, including to homebuilders, and to money market mutual funds that may be exposed to risky debt. The bank nevertheless considers the losses "manageable," he said.

Irish Independent: Irish economy 'most at risk' from global credit crisis

Homebuyers will find it harder to get mortgages and house prices will fall further as the global credit crisis continues. Ireland was singled out yesterday by a top international think-tank as one of the most vulnerable economies in Europe to the ongoing international banking crisis. The scale of the property price boom now puts the country at greater risk from the fallout in the financial markets, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Reuters: Northern Rock May Still Owe BoE in 2010 -Memo

Memo from Bankers handling Rock sale reckon shareholders in ailing British bank Northern Rock could be left with nothing and the Bank of England could still be funding the lender in 2010.

Times Online: Multiplex buy proves retail property drop

Multiplex UK, the construction and development company, has bought a regional UK shopping centre providing the first hard evidence that prices of retail property have fallen by at least 10 per cent since the start of the year.

BBC News: Why Inflation Matters

Evan Points out the blindingly obvious, 'falling house prices and declining consumer spending do become a real problem if they leave the economy with too little spending to keep everybody employed.'

Market Oracle: Next Phase of the Financial Markets Credit Crunch Crisis

The big three rating agencies have forever issued stellar, triple-A ratings to four specialized insurance companies — Ambac, MBIA, CIFG, and FGIC.
As long as bond insurers like Ambac or MBIA were triple-A … then … the thousands of tax-exempt bonds and CDOs they insured were also triple-A.
If the insurance companies get downgraded from AAA then so do the bonds they insure - phase II of the credit crunch

FT: Housing market faces big slowdown

"Even in London, surveyors have lost their gung-ho attitude after the global credit squeeze" "now the first signs are emerging that home owners are rushing to try to sell before the market tumbles. New stock on estate agents books leapt 8.8 per cent in October at the same time as newly agreed sales were lower that at any time since April 1999"... two thoughts: (1) you will see that RICS is going to discontinue this survey soon, and (2) ah ahahh ahahha hahhah ahhaah hahahha

BBC News: First-time home costs 'up again'

First-time buyers are finding it increasingly expensive to get onto the property ladder, says the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

Bovis Homes: Own 100% of your property for just 75% of the price upfront

This sounds like last-ditch desperation from the homebuilders. This is a shared equity scheme (should be shared liability surely?) where Bovis sells you a new property at 75% of the price. They retain 25% of the ownership which has to be purchased within 10 years. There is no interest to pay for 5 years and then very low (3%) after that. One example given is a Townhouse "worth" £220K but it's yours for only £165K. Just pay the extra £55K in five years and pay no interest. Assuming Bovis foregoes 6% of interest on that amount, it is costing them £18.6K if balance is paid for after 5 years or £34.7K if balance is paid after 10 years. And I didn't even include the loss of equity (you pay 25% of the value at the time the balance is purchased).

I am facing foreclosure: Deutsche Bank Foreclosures Tossed Out of Ohio Federal Court - "They Own Nothing!"

It appears that the holders of CDO's do not have legal title to the properties that have been defaulted on, so they cannot foreclose, so they get a big fat NOTHING

Times Online: Inflation spike breaches Bank target

Soaring oil and food prices have driven inflation above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, all but ruling out an interest rate cut this year.

Firstrung: Mortgage lending for house purchase falls over 20% in a month - CML

September's total of £30.6 billion was lower than August's (£34 billion) but higher than a year ago (£29.2 billion in September 2006). At £12.7 billion, house purchase borrowing was lower than in both the preceding month (£16.2 billion) and in September last year (£13.9 billion).

ONS: Earnings

The trend in wage inflation is down from 4.6% in 2000 to 2.9% today. Prices of goods a services are going up (RPI up to 4.2% today)

There will be no wage-price spiral. These price rises will act like an IR rise or tax. Once housing and stocks begin their secular decline, all the deflationary forces will be in place for a depression by 2011.

The Times: Inflation dilemma for Governor Mervyn King

With the housing boom clearly spent, wary consumers in retreat, the credit squeeze turning the screws still tighter on lending conditions and scary scenarios for the global economy looking ever more plausible, the hopes of many are pinned on the Governor delivering the gift of lower interest rates. Most would like to see these soon after Christmas at the latest, and preferably before.

Times Online: IoD warning over slump in confidence

THE credit crisis has led to a sharper fall in business confidence than in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks on America, according to the Institute of Directors.

ONS: Petrol drives up inflation

Figures from the Office for National Statistics today show that consumer prices index (CPI) annual inflation – the Government’s target measure – was 2.1 per cent in October, up from September’s figure of 1.8 per cent.

Times Online: House prices falling at fastest for over 2 years

"House prices are falling at their fastest pace for more than two years as stocks of unsold houses pile up on estate agents’ books, a leading survey of the property market suggests today."

BBC News: Carnage on Wall Street as loans go bad

A comprehensive article from the Beeb about the scale of the subprime problems: "The scale of the losses that will hit Wall Street banks could approach half a trillion dollars as large numbers of sub-prime home loans go bad." From the note at the bottom of the page, this is the first of many articles. Still very much about the US rather than the UK though.

FT.com: Housing market faces big slowdown

The property market is set for a more severe slowdown than in 2005, according to the most authoritative survey of estate agents, which shows they believe house prices are already falling in almost all areas of the UK and even the rampant London market has recently hit the buffers.

BBC: Carnage on Wall Street as loans go bad

"But experts estimate that the total losses facing the financial sector could amount to between $150bn and $450bn, and that many of the banks have hidden losses that have been concealed in off-balance sheet instruments like "special investment vehicles". "The gargantuan scale of potential losses is terrifying investors in banking stocks - which have fallen by 30% - as well as mortgage-bond investors." "The reality is that most financial institutions have barely started to recognize the lower 'fair value' of their impaired securities," "The credit crunch is getting much worse and its financial and real fallout will be severe." "One look at Citigroup, using SEC data, suggested that their potential liability could be $343bn rather than the $55bn they declared. "

telegraph.co.uk: US will retake economic superpower crown

Like a great battleship at sea, the US industrial and export machine is slowly turning around. Within a couple of years, its big guns will be sweeping the world again, ready to silence pious talk about America's trade deficit - and to menace chunks of Europe's manufacturing base.

timesonline.co.uk: House prices falling at fastest for over 2 years

House prices are falling at their fastest pace for more than two years as stocks of unsold houses pile up on estate agents’ books, a leading survey of the property market suggests today.

ft.com: Insight: Forget the falling dollar but fear a rising yen

If you like rising stocks, you do not want to see a rising yen. If the Bank of Japan envisions Japan’s economy as adequately strong and suddenly changes policy, increasing interest rates materially – pushing the yen up – it would kill the carry trade. That would scare those who have already taken carry trade money out of Japan, forcing them to reverse course, unwind their trades, sell stocks, and flood the money back into Japan. In the process, global stocks would suffer, as would the high-yielding countries’ currencies relative to the yen. With the correlation this high, do not fear a weak dollar; fear a strong yen. Any material sign of Bank of Japan tightening would be very bearish.

BBC news: House prices drop say surveyors

The slowdown in the housing market is becoming more pronounced, says the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics). Its latest survey of members in England and Wales suggests prices in October fell for the third month in a row, and at the fastest pace since July 2005. London was the only part of the country where prices did not fall, according to the Rics survey

ukpersonalloanstore.co.uk: House price crash won't affect spending

I am not one of these cynics who spend time waiting for an inevitable crash to happen. I actually made money on property. What gets me is that this should have all ended in 2003 to 2005. The bank of England and the government and the media have made this monster. What gets me is the spin, the surveys, the experts involved???. If I write a paper in science I have to quote all references. I also have to explain my arguments. This does not happen in any articles I read. My estate agent tells me I should not sell my property because it will keep going up in value and should rent????. I am being told this by a guy in his 20's who then walks away when I want to sell. I know I can sell it and still make money but what gets me is the arrogance and strange beliefs of these types of people.

ThisWasMoney: House prices inch up as slowdown begins

"David Stubbs, senior economist for the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, said a steeper fall in house price inflation was imminent. 'Although today's numbers show annual house price growth remaining in double digits, the slowdown in the UK housing market can clearly be seen,' he said. 'This is the smallest rise for seven months and is the prelude to a sharper reduction in house price growth, which is happening right now."

wsj.com: Why Wall Street May Let Air Out Of Oil Balloon

This is shaping up to be a hugely important week in energy markets. The hot oil balloon could rise to $100 a barrel. But don't be surprised if Wall Street -- driven by a mountain of expiring futures and options contracts -- steps up and pricks it. The sheer speed with which oil has risen could intensify second-guessing as its price hovers near three digits. "Holding that number is going to require a lot more than just a belief in a momentum trade," says Ben Dell, energy analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. He says the market is hardly ...

Times Online: Goldman Sachs rebuffs sub-prime skeleton claims

Goldman's $72 billion of obscurely-valued assets stoked speculation that the investment bank had withheld the true extent of its exposure to turmoil in the credit markets.

MSN: 10 indestructible jobs

Society is changing but some jobs will always stand the test of time – no matter how fast technology evolves and however many machines are invented to do the jobs our great-grand parents once undertook. No matter how much info you can find out on Google and Wikipedia, we will always need people to take care of the sick, teach our children, maintain our cars and keep the tax man at bay! Here are 10 jobs that do just that:

NPR: Homes Left Vacant in Slump Mar Neighborhoods

A vacant home in a decent neighborhood used to be a rarity. But in cities around the country, homeowners and investors — unable to afford the homes they bought — are abandoning their properties, marring the neighborhoods they leave behind. In Phoenix, once one of the nation's hottest markets, tens of thousands of homes are vacant. The bulk of the homes were owned by investors who hoped to profit from booming housing prices.

Times Online: Factory gate inflation hits 12-year high

An immediate cut in interest rates look unlikely as oil and food costs fuel sharpest hike in output costs since December 1995."In a blow to mortgage holders, the figures discount the possibility of an interest rate cut before next spring, analysts said."

Mortgage Solutions: Dancing in the Dark

It's the same old story. The end of the buy-to-let world is nigh, as it has been for the last six years, so the mainstream media say. Despite all of this, buy to let in 2008 will be seen as a safe haven. Why the optimism? The same factors that have always been present. High rental demand and a shortage of housing supply. A third factor is the army of experienced BTL investors who will jump back into the market as soon as it softens.

Belfast Telegraph: 'It's a first-time buyers' market'

Everybody knows the Market is falling in Northern Ireland. Terrible time to buy. Especially for a first time buyer. This is the most immoral article I've read yet. The "Journalist" must have invested a lot in property.

BBC News: House prices 'continue to cool'

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight said the DCLG data "added to the overall impression that housing market activity and prices are now losing significant momentum". He blamed slowing activity, increased affordability pressures and tightening lending practices. "We expect these factors to increasingly bite over the coming months, leading to further marked cooling in the housing sector," he added. Yeah and cooling becoming freezing, followed by absolute zero. Still nice to see that the BBC refuse to admit any form of crash possibly occuring after their years of property ramping articles. Well done UK sheeple you priced out the bottom rung who may now profit whilst your greed becomes misery. Lots of love to Rosie too!

BBC: Jump in UK factory gate inflation

'Rising petrol, chemicals and food prices sent factory gate inflation soaring to a 12-year high in October. Output price annual inflation rose 3.8% last month, the highest rate since December 1995, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).' Kiss goodbye to the idea of rate cuts!

Times Online: HSBC expected to write down an extra $1bn

"HSBC is expected to report another huge writedown, of more than $1 billion (£480 million) by some estimates, on its portfolio of high-risk sub-prime mortgages in the United States, escalating fears that the fallout from America’s housing crisis is far from over."

Times Online: Home economics - the property market

"Let us start with the basics. By how much are houses overvalued, in Britain compared with their long-run average? PWC’s first answer, based on its housing model, is that prices are 20% higher than they should be. Bring in other factors, such as supply constraints – the lack of new houses relative to the rise in the number of households – and this figure drops to 10%."

reuters.com: Yen shock may prompt next wave of market crisis

Just as renewed waves of forced asset sales and bank write-downs risk turning this year's credit market turmoil into a vicious circle, the Japanese yen looks set to deliver another shock to global markets.And as dollar losses against the yen started to spiral on Friday, fears have risen of a mass unwinding of the yen "carry trade" -- currency trades funded by cheap, low interest rate yen and estimated to be worth up to $200 billion.

The Daily Telegraph: Rule change sounds alarm on Wall Street

Level 3 assets in USA to be 'marked to market' rather than 'marked to make-believe' from Thursday this week.

thisismoney: The house price crash-ometer that has lenders worried

The Council of Mortgage Lenders has written to the editor of thisismoney website asking for the removal of the house price crash-ometer complaining that 'tool seems specifically designed to cause maximum alarm' and that they have 'alerted the Nationwide to the way in which their data is being used'. Ohhhhhhh, look who's scared now!!!

FT.com: Inflation data to reveal effects of high oil prices

With oil prices rising towards $100 a barrel and gold challenging its record of $850 a troy ounce set in 1980, there are mounting fears over the implications for the global economy. This week brings vital inflation data, expected to reflect the impact of record oil prices, as well as retail spending data as concern grows over the outlook for consumers.

Independent: Pay for public sector bosses rises by 12.8 per cent

Gordon Brown is facing a major row about the salaries of public sector executives after a report from the Taxpayer's Alliance highlighted pay rises that were six times the rate of inflation. The highest-earning 300 bosses in the public sector saw their salaries increase by 12.8 per cent last year, raising their average to £237,564. Seventeen of the top bosses earned more than £500,000, according to the pressure group's second annual Public Sector Rich List.

Independent: Blood ties: Yakuza daughter lifts lid on hidden hell of gangsters' families

I think when people are sifting through the rubble of UK PLC, we will find plenty of gangsters involved in mortgage fraud. We need to hold Estate Agents personally accountable. Yakuza income has shrunk along with the rest of the economy, but some groups have moved out of traditional business such as prostitution and loan-sharking into real estate. A government-funded study in the late-1990s found that as much as 42 per cent of bad loans from banks involved organised crime. Guardian Article on Shoko Tendo

Globe and Mail: Thought the subprime mess was bad? Wait till the accountants get involved

"There's already plenty of chatter about dealers' Level 3 exposure. Take Citigroup, for instance. In a recent SEC filing, they said they had $135-billion (U.S.) in Level 3 assets. They have an equity base of $128-billion, so their Level 3 exposure is 105 per cent of equity. Goldman has $72-billion in Level 3, or 185 per cent of their $35-billion in equity." "And a report from the Royal Bank of Scotland this week predicted the total losses from Level 3 writedowns will be somewhere between $250-billion and $500-billion."

Oh my, oh my!

Telegraph.co.uk: What lurks beneath the surface for banks?

What lurks beneath the surface for banks? Wall Street has already been hit hard by the sub-prime crisis and no one believes that British banks will escape unscathed. But there is huge uncertainty about how severe the pain will be, says Iain Dey

Herald: THE BANK THAT STOLE CHRISTMAS

"Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its nerve and decided to hold interest rates at 5.75% this week. This gave us a fascinating insight into the currently divergent interests of retailers and the rest of the economy. While the former want you to splurge like never before this Christmas, giving in to every indulgent desire as they seek to maximise profits, the MPC would prefer you kept your stockings on your thighs and anywhere but the mantelpiece."... this is what I call profound commentary

ThisWasMoney: Millions braced for mortgage rate leap

"Monthly payments agreed last month on two-year, £150,000 loans were nearly £200 higher than in 2005"... but rates only go down and prices up, and migrants migrate here to breed and then divorce... UAAAAAAAA AHAHHHH... sorry I forgot the students... AHHHHHHA HHAHHAHHA. Here we go the "security" of brick and mortar pensions... EAT YOUR BRICKS when you retire, but in the meanwhile pay more to your true landlord: the bank! UAHHHAHHA HAHAHHAHH AHHHHA

thisismoney: We've lost thousands with Inside Track

Brenda Davies responded to an advert by property investment company Inside Track in August 2004, attended a free workshop and then spent £2,495 to attend a two-day seminar. But now Brenda says the mortgage shortfalls, capital loss, and fees paid to Inside Track and other firms left her out of pocket by more than £100,000 ...... Oh, the high price of greed!

Independent on Sunday: Banks hit again as HSBC prepares to reveal more sub-prime losses

HSBC are due to announce writedowns this coming week, could we be in for another dramatic share drop and possibly another run on the banks. This may give us some idea of how much Barclay's may have to write down. Things are not looking rosy at all in the banking sector.

Times: Recession talk could remain just that

With the US heading into recession, and the oil prices at $100 what next for the global economy? Thankfully, it couldn't happen here could it?

Times: Will the value of your property fall next year?

"If there is the slightest problem with a property, people will walk away. The only exception is with very desirable properties, which are still selling well and seeing competitive bidding. Properties spoiled in any way, by say road noise, are very hard to sell."

Money Week: Buy to Let TAX dodge

Just reading Money Week, November issue, Buy to Letters, if they sale now they will have to pay 40% capital gains tax, if they wait until April they only have to pay 18% CGT Does that mean the big falls will start in April?

BBC News: China moves to cool its inflation

Chinese inflation hit 6.5% in August, its highest level since 1997, before declining slightly to 6.2% in September. October's data, which is out on Tuesday, is expected to show that inflation has risen again to 6.4%. The UK and USA are painted into a corner. Stagflation, stagflation, stagflation !

Firstrung: Firstrung, first time buyers, the week in focus

The past week saw the buy to let industry battered with more negative comment. When an organisation, with the perceived authortiy of RICS, finally calls time on this harmful practice then the so called 'investors' really need to; buy the coffee, get it home and open the bag. However, for most of them it's simply too late...

Telegraph: House buyers back out of property deals

Falling house prices are causing buyers to pull out of property transactions in large numbers. Estate agents and mortgage brokers warn that the market is close to gridlock, with chains collapsing through buyers taking fright. With prices falling for the second month running, Britain's biggest broker, Charcol, has seen a rise of more than 50 per cent in the past six months of purchasers dropping out even though a mortgage had been agreed.

Sunday Times: Business Article

Nonsense! I have been speakin to Adam Applegarth and he assures me that there is no blackhole at Barclays...

Independent: Property websites: Is this the end of the estate-agent rip-off?

A new generation of home-sales websites claim to offer better service than their high-street rivals, for a fraction of the fee. Helen Brown meets one of the trailblazers – and a satisfied customer

Herald: Credit crunch begins to hit home as rising numbers turned down for cards and mortgages

"Lenders are also pulling mortgage deals from the market. Moneyfacts calculates that the number of homeloans has fallen by 40% over the past few months. The biggest drop is in so-called sub-prime loans - mortgages for people with poor credit histories. But there has also been a 16% fall in the number of prime residential deals and a 20% decline in numbers of prime buy-to-let mortgages."

Times: Buy-to-let will come to be seen less as a one-way bet than a rich man’s game

A BTLer wrote: "I put 3 of my BTL houses on the market. By the autumn they had sold but not without serious price reductions from the asking prices advised by the various Agents I went to. I wish I had put all 6 up for sale in the Spring!! I put the remaining 3 BTL properties on the market in the Autumn to realise as much profit as I can. Like many other BTL'ers I need to do this before all the capital appreciation profit evapourates. There is not much interest out there and it is necessary to reduce prices drastically to get the interest and potential of an actual sale" MWAAY AUAUUAU AAAHHHHA HAHHAHHHA HAHAHHH

Times: The house party’s over for buy-to-let investorsThe house party’s over for buy-to-let investors

"It is not just borrowers who need to adapt to changing economic circumstances. Investors must also choose carefully. The one market where a reappraisal is required more than most is buy-to-let. Over the past ten years it has been difficult not to make money as a landlord. Capital gains have been impressive as house prices have rocketed skywards while strong rental demand has provided a decent and reliable income. But the party is now well and truly over." UAAHHHAHHA AHHAHHAH AHHAHAHHH AHAHHAHHA

Metro: 'Growing number' rejected for loans

Growing numbers of consumers are having loan applications turned down, while a number of providers are pulling out of the market altogether. The proportion of people being accepted for a personal loan has fallen every month since April as lenders tighten their lending criteria, according to financial website moneysupermarket.com.

Times Online: Toxic mix to drive down house prices

House prices are at risk of falling next year as a "toxic mix" of rising interest rates, overvaluation and debt weighs on the market, investment bank Citigroup has warned. Michael Saunders, the bank's chief European economist, is predicting a fall of 1pc-2pc with a "sizeable risk the outturn will be worse". He believes the decline will be led by a collapse in the buy-to-let market as rising mortgage rates and falling rental yields deter investors after a decade in which house prices have tripled.

Financial Times: House price correction threatens EU growth

Among the threats it identifies is a worsening of the financial turmoil that could hit housing markets in Europe as well as the US “thereby deepening and prolonging the ongoing corrections”.

ThisIsMoney: Buy-to-let has become a 'rich man's game'

'Would-be investors who have missed out on the impressive returns of previous years are now finding the hurdles to property investment are higher than they imagined. 'However, existing landlords should be able to use the equity in their past investment properties to fund the deposit needed for new ones, and this should ensure that demand from the buy-to-let sector does not dry up entirely.' Mwaaauuuauuuuuuhhhhahhhhhhhhh

FT: FT index confirms housing market cooling

House price inflation peaked in June , with the market slowing ever since, the November FT house price index shows. Half of the regional markets in England and Wales have experienced falling house prices since the June peak.

HotProperty.co.uk: 30 percent of prime property sales 'are for downsizing purposes'

The race for the exits has started as Savills reckon that loads of people are taking the money and running as fast as they can while they still can.

FT Alphaville: Banks Hammered as CDO Defaults Spike

First CDO liquidation, it means the banks won't be able to mark to myth. Check out http://www.minyanville.com/articles/stt-c-S-P-ABX-Indices/index/a/14812 for a better explanation than I can give.

The Daily Reconing: Obsessed About Owning A House

Guest contributor Andrew Lees, mulls whether he’s better off as a buyer or renter of his home… It’s lonely being a thirty-something couple not owning a house. There aren’t many of us around. When I mentioned to a colleague last week that we’d sold and are now renting, she gave me that patronising “Aah, bless!” look. I’m still amazed at the number of supposedly rational people who are obsessed with owning a house

Market Oracle: UK Housing Bear Market Has Begun

The Market Oracle's New enhanced affordability index indicates that UK house prices are now at extreme levels of unaffordability not seen since 1989. The indicator also clearly shows why house prices were extremely under valued for nearly 8 years right into 2002, when many housing pundits were prematurely calling for a UK house price crash without doing the sums on affordability.

Telegraph: Barclays denies $10bn rumour as shares slide

Time to walk very calmly to your nearest branch and kindly request to have your savings back ...

BBC: Housing meltdown hits US economy

The arguments for no crash in UK property hot spots such as London trotted out by the bullish journos are currently low unemplyment and expanding population (demand). However, take not journo dummies "And the housing crash is now extending to the formerly "hot" housing markets in Southern California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, where expanding populations and a strong economy were expected to keep prices high."

Mclaren report: November 09 2007 CNBC Squawkbox Europe

We have had the secondary high. Now for the crash.

Urban Dirt - Timesonline Blog: Is the US dollar a load of old rap?

"Jay-Z says sell dollar-euro!" was the excitable scream in certain dark corners of Tokyo's currency floors this morning as the clip did the rounds on the message-boards and trader chat-rooms.
Which is all very well, but does rather depend on where you think Jay-Z (or any other rich rapper, for that matter) features in the wider currency cycle. Are these artists leading or lagging indicators? Are the forex decisions made in Brooklyn and West Compton ahead or behind Wall Street and the City? Is it like the story of John Pierpont Morgan and the shoe-shine boy? Does Jay-Z's coded bull-call on the euro mark the bottom for the dollar, or will the market "pop another cap" in the greenback's a***?

BBC: New Oil Reserves Found

?

times online: Quietening down on the building sites

Potential customers are adopting that most frustrating of tactics to sellers – doing nothing. They are sitting on their hands and waiting – waiting to see if asking prices come down, waiting in the hopes of bigger and better perks like part exchange offers on existing homes, waiting to see if better mortgage offers come along. Visits to show homes are down. Sales volumes are falling. And selling prices are becalmed

Times Online: Decision over Mervyn King’s future put on hold until new year

"There was irritation within the Treasury that he had confirmed publicly that Mr Darling had decided, with the Bank, that it should not sanction the loan of up to £30 billion to help Northern Rock’s takeover by Lloyds TSB."

I bet there was irritation - it blows a hole through any notion of independence of the Bank of England!

bbc: Run on the Bank: Northern Crock

Northern Rock is Britain's eighth largest high street bank and until recently was the darling of the City of London. Now it's in crisis, struggling for its very survival, propped up by the Bank of England, and waiting as potential buyers circle.

Timesonline: New wave of debt pain hits Merrill and Dresdner

I promise that Morgan Stanley's $3.7bn is just a small downpayment on the blood and tears. If Merrill is on the hook for $27bn, Morgan Stanley, Citi, JPMorgan, Barclays all have losses at least as big. Watch out for merger announcements and jail terms. Think the US Economy cannot fail, think again. Muhuhahahahaha!

BBC: UK trade gap widens in September

The UK's monthly trade deficit widened to a record in September, following a rise in imports of consumer goods, according to official figures.

Telegraph: The witches' brew of 1987 is back again

We forget now, but the triple backdrop to the Wall Street crash in October 1987 was a tumbling dollar, record oil prices, and an inflation mini-scare across the world.

Daily Telegraph: Housing market is 'sliding rapidly'

Short and sweet.

Bloomberg: U.K. House Prices Fall for Second Month

The single monthly decline in September was dismissed as a blip. But this second monthly decline in October almost certainly exposes a trend.

Acadametrics: Acadametrics October figures

October HPI up to 0.7% "Monthly rates are subject to fluctuations and we would see the October figure as something of a blip set against the continuing fall in the annual inflation rate"

FT.COM: Mixed hopes for investors as housing market signs go to amber

Make what you will of it, but the article is indicating the BTL market might not be in that much trouble. Seems for every doomsayer story there is a positive outcome.

HBOS Website: 08.11.07 Halifax House Price Index - October

How long can the Nationwide continue showing m-o-m gains?

Telegraph: Banks end the era of easy loan cash

'Loans have become increasingly popular with families trying to juggle different debts, with two thirds of loans used to pay off other debts. With rates going up and lending criteria getting stricter, it could trigger a major financial headache for many stretched families.'

Energy Bulletin: Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US

Slide [7] I've described what happened to Russia in some detail in one of my articles, which is available on SurvivingPeakOil.com. I don't see why what happens to the United States should be entirely dissimilar, at least in general terms. The specifics will be different, and we will get to them in a moment. We should certainly expect shortages of fuel, food, medicine, and countless consumer items, outages of electricity, gas, and water, breakdowns in transportation systems and other infrastructure, hyperinflation, widespread shutdowns and mass layoffs, along with a lot of despair, confusion, violence, and lawlessness. We definitely should not expect any grand rescue plans, innovative technology programs, or miracles of social cohesion.

BBC News: £1 per Litre Petrol Drives Peak Oil on Mainstream TV

On Wednesday 7th November 2007 the mainstream 10:30pm ITV news in the UK discusses the "peak oil" documentary Crude Awakening, hears the IEA warning of much higher oil prices, shows how many countries have already peaked and speaks to David Strahan (lastoilshock.com). This and passing the $100/barrel oil price will turn focus on peak oil and inflation and put huge pressure on central banks to increase interest rates, putting further pressure on asset classes such as houses.

Assetz: Landlords 'maintaining faith in the UK buy-to-let market'

Sorry I feel compelled to post Assetz, it is so entertaining. "Perhaps the only certainty amid all the speculation is that those UK property investors who remain focused on medium and long-term investment will continue to seek advantages where they can, as market conditions continue to evolve." So what is the certainty? say it again...

The Fed: U.S. faces risks of downturn, inflation: Bernanke

"Quite frankly, I think we are at a moment of economic crisis stemming from four key areas: falling housing prices, lack of confidence in creditworthiness, the weak dollar and high oil prices," said Schumer, D-N.Y. "Each of these problems alone would be enough of a threat to our economic well-being. But taken together, they are essentially the four horsemen of economic crisis."

Reuters: Buy-to-let is now only for the rich

RICS say that the buy-to-let market is officially stagnant as would-be-investors now need 500 percent more capital to put down as a deposit than they did five years ago which makes BTL investments an unattractive proposition for vast swathes of the population.

Firstrung: Buy to Let investment a 'dead duck' unless you have a 65K deposit - RICS

The buy-to-let market is now so inaccessible to the average investor that only the wealthy can afford to be become landlords, says an RICS report published today. Barriers to entering the buy-to-let market, driven by interest rates and levels of rental cover ratios for mortgages; have made investment an unattractive proposition for vast swathes of the population. In the current climate, would-be-investors need to lay down a deposit of £65,600 (30 percent of a property's value) for the average UK house in order to get a foothold on the buy-to-let ladder. This compares dramatically with the £10,100 (only eight percent of a property's value) required in Q1 2002 - a deterioration of over 500 percent in 5 years.

Times: BT to shed 5,000 in white-collar cull

BT has revealed that 2,000 managers have left the telecoms giant since May, as part of the first wave of a restructuring that is likely to entail the departure of 5,000 managers. "We are seeing a move away from managers to hire 2,500 engineers and front line staff," a spokesman said.

Halifax: House Price Index

House prices fell by 0.5% in October. Overall, house prices in the three months to October were 0.3% higher than in the previous quarter. This continues the steady downward trend experienced since the end of 2006 ..... but then comes the usual "strong economy, lack of houses, prices can't possibly fall" line.

www.telegraph.co.uk: House prices fall for second month

The property market is "deteriorating faster than expected" and homeowners should brace themselves for a prolonged dip in house prices, analysts have said.

kitco.com: Gold's Infallible Indicator - Six Months Later

Article about the time lag between The Economist's bearish articles on gold and the gold price taking off six months later.

Times: US fears Israeli strike against Iran over latest nuclear claim

Time to pack or decide to stay....

FT: Banks writedowns aren’t big enough

The whole insane credit game has a tsunami approaching. Big banks have admitted to $28bn losses from subprime so far. This article produces estimates from various places that the total figure is more likely to be $200bn when this is done and dusted. UK Banks will suffer some of this. When they turn off the taps of money how many billions of GBP will it be when our UK house of cards crashes next?

Firstrung: House prices in the South West and Midlands will see steepest price correction - Experian

Report predicts that Greater London will remain unscathed and indeed out perform the rest of the UK when the evidence from, for example, primelocation.com who are arguably better placed to report on such matters, proves otherwise. The Experian report predicts a modest 'tail off' in house price growth for London to finish in 2009 with 6% growth, this is completely contrary to the primelocation report and in that context alone the Experian report lacks credibility. Average 'Greater' London prices are currently eight times average London household income, that marks London and its boroughs as not only the epicentre of the credit crunch but ironically, given the reach of global markets, the epicentre of a potential severe house price correction.

Firstrung: NAEA survey claims HIPS having adverse affect on house sales

A survey of members conducted by the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) has produced the largest response ever to one of its surveys with over 1000 replies indicating what a contentious issue HIPs still are.Over the past 10 days members were asked to compare the market this October to the same time last year. The results show that 83% of agents have found that requests for market appraisals have dropped with 9% of respondents finding a reduction of more than 50%. When asked about the change in the number of instructions for 3 or more bedroom properties, a staggering 76% stated that they had seen decreases in excess of 10% of which 46% had seen a drop in excess of 30%. This compares with a much smaller reduction for 1 or 2 bedroom properties with 37% of respondents finding a dr

Daily Mail: So just how worried should we be?

"The nice decade of noninflationary growth, cheap mortgages, soaring house prices and easy credit looks as if it is coming to a juddering halt."

BBC: UK rates stay unchanged at 5.75%

The Bank of England has kept UK interest rates unchanged at 5.75% for the fourth month in a row in a widely expected move.

Safe Haven: Gold as an Alternative Investment

Gordon Brown (now Prime Minister) of Britain sold 415 tonnes of gold, almost 60% of its total reserves, leaving Britain with only 300 tonnes. 11 days earlier, Brown had requested the IMF to sell $10 billion of its gold on the open market too. So far no real reason has been officially offered for selling gold in such a hurry.

FT: Lombard; Northern Flyer

basic marketing 101... send out flyers.... "Given the publicity for the Rock’s plight, recipients’ first reaction is hardly likely to be: “Hmm, Northern Rock - I haven’t heard of them: better take a look.” On this matter, how long will the management of RBS and Barclays fiddle while their stocks bomb??? Isn't time to just 'fess up'???

Channel4 News: Buy-to-Let 'a rich man's game'

A rise in the size of the deposit people need to put down, as well as higher interest rates, means only the wealthy can afford to become landlords, says RICS. David Stubbs, RICS economist, said: "It takes more capital than ever to set up a BTL investment. Would-be investors who have missed out on the impressive returns of previous years are now finding the hurdles to property investment are higher than they imagined. "However, existing landlords should be able to use the equity in their past properties to fund the deposit needed for new ones, and this should ensure that demand from the buy-to-let sector does not dry up."

BBC News: Morgan Stanley takes $3.7bn hit

Apparently MS can afford to lose this kind of money without too much of an impact!

The Telegraph: Sarkozy fears 'economic war’ as dollar slides

"French president warns US it cannot allow currency to collapse as Europe suffers from euro's rise"

The race to the bottom for currencies/IRs has started.

The GBP will be next as our housing bubble bursts and consumers pull back.

The EUR will be last out of the starting blocks as it is not even clear that its IR tightening cycle has finished

BBC: Halifax sees house price slowdown

"...prices fell by 0.5% in October..."
Full report here .
The last 6 months has seen wait for it ... 0.6% growth in prices (i.e. a fall because this is below RPI).

Halifax: Halifax - monthly national index

Halifax - down 0.5% for October

Motley Fool: Low Confidence Hits House Prices And High Street

How confident are you feeling about your financial future? Not very....

BBC News: Average petrol cost at £1 a litre

And remember, crack spreads are yet to catch up with eye watering oil prices, which see's no abating. I still think that when rates move next, they will move up.

Mail: 'Half the country' to see house prices fall

Half the country will see house price falls in the next 18 months driven by the knock-on effects of the worldwide squeeze on credit, according to a study out today

Birmingham Mail: Birmingham housing market facing

BIRMINGHAM families are set to see thousands of pounds wiped off the value of their homes in a new house price crisis, a new report claimed this afternoon. The city was tipped to bear the brunt of the property downturn as analysts predicted higher interest rates and the credit crunch would bite hard over the next 18 months. New figures suggested the West Midlands would be the country's worst hit area for falling house prices. Information group Experian said up to four per cent could be wiped from the value of properties in the region.

CNN: 25 real estate markets poised to fall

One way to know where housing prices are headed is to look at their relationship to rents. As Fortune's data show, big declines are needed to bring prices and rents back in line.................

Bloomberg: Bank face $100bn writedowns

Even UK banks will take a hit: "U.S. banks and brokers face as much as $100 billion of writedowns because of Level 3 accounting rules, in addition to the losses caused by the subprime credit slump, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc."

MoneyWeek: House prices: expect the worst

In August 2005, Fred Harrison told MoneyWeek that the UK property boom would last for another three years, before ending in 2008. Here he updates his forecast.

The Times: Business Article

Is it just an Autumn sneeze?

Welling @ Weeden and www.shadowstats.com: Shadowing Reality - Economist Keeps Tabs On Government’s “Creative” Statistical Reports

You have been a practicing economist for a long time, as I understand it—and one of these days you hope to get a forecast right. Isn’t that the line? [...] I started out specializing in econometric forecasting, particularly of the U.S. economy and interest rates. [...] We did very well with our economic and interest rate forecasting but early on I noticed that something seemed to be askew with the GNP forecast. As I looked into it, I found that there were some problems with the government’s GNP reports, tied to to misreporting of the trade deficit See http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data for more.

Firstrung: Buy to let landlords still bullish

"Residential property investment is not a means of getting rich quick." - David Salusbury NLA. Erm, can we respectfully ask then "what's the point"? We thought that was the whole point. Oh sorry we get it, buy to let landlords are in it for their pension (yawn) and to put back into society the much needed 'bridge' for those in between; jobs, decisions, life changes and to plug a gap that only the private sector could....What's next, landlords asking for charitable status?

Channel4 News: Buy-to-Let investors to be warned

Buy-to-let mortgages should carry investment-style warnings as rising interest rates and the threat of house price falls put landlords at risk of losing money, according to law firm Moore Blatch. Investments regulated by the FSA must carry a warning that their value can go down as well as up. The group said that as a buy-to-let property is also an investment, people may seek legal redress if they think they were not warned that their returns could fluctuate. "Many will have seen buy-to-let as a guaranteed investment."

FT.com: Dollar Sinks to new lows

The dollar sank to new lows against sterling and the euro on Wednesday after comments about China’s foreign reserves from one of the country’s senior politicians.

Fairfax Australia: Six-figure salary and still renting.

"Having got my specialty qualification as an anaesthetist [last year], my income had risen quite significantly," Cox says. "Despite that, I decided not to buy a house because I could rent one much better."

Safe Haven: The Stock Market and the Business Cycle

Article about 8.6-year global business cycle. This ties in nicely with the 17-18 year secular cycles seen in property, stocks and commodities.