Saturday, Nov 24, 2007
Irish house prices point the way - DOWN. Outlook described as dire.
Finfacts: Irish property prices - fall 1.3% in October
Article says it all, down nearly 5% this year already, and falls accelerating, with Nov and Dec to come looks like falls for 2007 will be 6-7% in total
Posted by andyh @ 07:22 PM (389 views) Add Comment
2 Comments
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1. Aaron Mcdaid said...
That is probably an underestimate of the fall. That Irish property index is slightly suspect - it is based on repeated valuations of houses, rather than the actual transaction prices. I suppose real prices will be falling before the valuations do - lagging by a short while perhaps?
http://www.permanenttsb.ie/dynamic/pdf/7071_PTSB_methodology.pdf
“Indices based on a
constant sample must therefore
rely on repeated valuations, with an
inevitable subjective element, rather
than on actual market transactions
to obtain the relevant prices.”
2. European-bear said...
Irish housing market now entering the second stage of the crash. First stage, slow decline (5% in a year) accompanied by disbelief that it can happen and its only a temporary minor correction. Now at 1.3% per month (= 16% annually) it has entered the second stage...sharp falls caused by realisation, fear, exit of BTLs, insolvency of builders and people chasing the market down. Expect this to last 2-3 years. That brings us down to a loss of 30-40% below peak. Then a slow grind down to the bottom over the following couple of years when the market is charecterised by housing being a bad investment and a fear of buying now when next year will be cheaper. Only when all indices make housing seem very cheap relative to earnings rents etc will people overcome their fear of risk and start buying again.....Ireland is about 1 year ahead of teh UK...have fun! 2011-2012 will see some great bargins in Dublin....
Oh and the crash in Ireland will kill the celtic tiger and they may suffer quite a nasty recerssion with unemployment heading up to 10%