Friday, Nov 30, 2007
I want to post this again
Primelocation: The best report on the London housing market
Let me post this brilliant report once again. It focuses on London, it is short and factual (not like the Azzetz reportz) and shows that both sales and rentals are pear shaped. So, just in case you reader of this blog are a keen BTLetter, just be aware what your mounting losses next year will look like. MWUAUHH AHHHHH AHHAHAHH. Let us hope Primelocation does not stop publishing its monthly report.
Posted by confused76 @ 10:10 AM (5406 views) Add Comment
47 Comments
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1. Theboltonfury said...
I too am renting and really hope the market goes belly up so I can get a decent house at a decent price. However, can I please ask Confused76 to stop behaving like a prepubescent with the inane muah ah ah etc. It's really, really annoying and just makes this very useful less credible. I know it's just a sense of humour, but aren't we all trying to make our point in a professional and less contrived manner than the BTL brigade did when they told us about their early retirement plans
I am on Confused's side, I too hope to be able to ram a hot poker into the derrier of the guy in my office who thinks he's a millionaire because he bought a load of flats, but please, if us lot are to prevail and have the laugh, lets do it in a slightly more adult way
Please confused - (i obviously now expect to see a massive Muah ahh ect in respone to this)
2. Fedupwithhouseprices said...
Theboltonfury I think that like many of us Confused has been so frustrated at the housing market and BTL situation for so many years now that the feeling of relief that it's all going pear shaped for them at last is enormous. You can't blame him for letting it out in this way. It's what he and the rest of us has prayed for but have for so long thought it's never going to happen. Ho Ho Ho Merry Christmas!
3. the reaper said...
'It's really, really annoying and just makes this very useful less credible',...no it's not.For heavens sake,I don't think it's a proper confused 76 post without the muhahhahaha.
'but aren't we all trying to make our point in a professional and less contrived manner than the BTL brigade did when they told us about their early retirement plan's' I'm not.I'm here for light relief from a hectic days winning and losing.
'am on Confused's side, I too hope to be able to ram a hot poker into the derrier of the guy in my office who thinks he's a millionaire because he bought a load of flats, but please, if us lot are to prevail and have the laugh, lets do it in a slightly more adult way'....and that's professional?
Onto the post confused,it is brilliant and I share your joy.
4. confused76 said...
ok. we are in a democracy (you see I am deluded too) so let us vote:
A) I completely stop laughing
B) I can laugh only once every 10 posts
C) I adopt a less puerile laugh, e.g. ha ha. or ho ho ho
PS: Why am I laughing so hard? because I think of my landlord and all the btl so called investors who will have to come to grasp with the simple concept that not only they will lose all their money in a failed "get rich quickly" scheme, but are going to be left with a huge millstone round their neck THE MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL REPAYMENT (which is something never really mentioned in the press) yes principals have to be repaid eventually
5. yorkshireman said...
Gentlemen. Can I suggest a compromise. Check this link out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI1nPd7hezM&feature=related
6. nopensionnohouse said...
Or
D) continue on with the laughing.
I know I am.
I vote D.
7. C'mon Correction said...
I vote B. We can't lose the MWUAUHH AHHHHH altogether !
8. uncle tom said...
Confused,
I would hate you to stop laughing - but do stop trying to convert your mirth into text..
..it's a bit wierd..
..really!!
9. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Theboltonfury, I'm in a similar position. Here's my take:
Give it 5 years, this is likely just the tip of the peak. In 5 years you'll probably get a bargain, but no capital appreciation.
My base assumption is that a "sane" price for houses (since records began) is between 3 and 3.5 x salary. Using that assumption, you can calculate a good time to buy. Current national average salary is about 20K. Current national average house is just under 200K.
Bubbles overshoot on the way down, so the bottom could be somewhere between 2.5 and 3 x salary (as a national average - down south prices will always be higher).
Chances are there will be heavy inflation, so average salary will rise and property will fall back. Taking Japan as an example (shortage of land, high population, rampant speculation driving prices up, massive debt and leverage, banks lending money willy nilly - spot the similarities) they lost 50-80% off house prices and two decades later they still have not recovered.
Taking the Japanese example, those expecting property to provide a pension are probably looking at the next "endowment mortgage" debacle. Ouch.
This sounds like doom, but if you take the simple 3-3.5 x salary average it's all too logical.
10. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
C76, it's been a while coming, so I'm feeling it too. Maybe we could use a code-word to represent the laugh, for the delectation of regular bloggers, like "MHHH" (a-la IMHO). I imagine this site will be getting more attention from the general public, who wouldn't necessarily understand the whole story.
I have to say, I'd quite like to return the nose-rubbing and condescension whence it came, but then I think how infuriating and pointless it was and wonder whether I want to create more of the same. The best for me was dozing through the 6:15 Radio 4 business news this morning and my wife saying "everybody agrees with you now, you saw it coming".
I chose my username for a good reason and I stand by it. Those who refused to listen, didn't want to believe, so I tried to let them go their way. Not my responsibility to force people into the Titanic's lifeboats if they are aggressively rooted to the bar and their G&T (&debt - both lead to a hangover). It's sad but you can't help people who don't want to be helped.
11. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Or E laugh it in the comments, rather than the post?
12. Northern Bear said...
I go with another option - D) confused76 carries on in just the same way.
13. seanb303 said...
confused i say c) ho ho ho
christmas laugh
dohouses ,i reckon we will see 0.8-1.2 % drop every month from now on for the next 3 years
a slow and painful crash
14. Cheekie Charlie said...
I vote D. It's the only way to treat incompitent fools who've impoverished us all.
15. george monsoon said...
sean, I see a more exponential drop, given the recent press coverage, which is likely to increase and heat up, when the media see this government sham unfold.
I do agree that we should pat ourselves on the back, I for one have been visiting this site since early 2005 and I have taken no end of abuse from the get rich quick crowd, who are now having to take stock of their humungous error! I won't try to transcribe my feeling of smugness to text, but its been a long time coming and now we are actually in a much needed correction period. my savings are earning a reasonable rate of return and I will have a healthy deposit to put onto a house in about 18 months.
My prediction for the correction... 10 to 15% within 12 months, followed by a further 15 to 20 % the following year.
16. tyrellcorporation said...
Keep going Confused, the laughter puts a smile on my face.
17. Axxo said...
I say laugh away, it's funny.... the weirder the words the better!! mooo haaa
but seriously guys do you have jobs? If so how do you get the time to update this blog site every 45mins!!
18. Theboltonfury said...
i was merely pointing that to an new person who is delighted to have found a site where people seem to share my doomongering, that the weird laughing is just that, weird, but I'm sure C76 is a top guy so I guess if it makes him and others happy, I'll learn to live with it
However, I am pleased that reaper deconstruced my entire post piece by piece.
I live in Hale, Cheshire. One of the real property hotspots in the country. Do people think that even these historically 'posh' areas where there genuinely is a lot of money may experience a real crash/correction?
19. paul said...
I see a lot of new faces here. People have been talking about this place. The first rule ... etc. etc.
It is certainly tempting to rub it in to all the property pundits jillying themselves off about desirable residences in Hackney. With belly-shaking guffaws.
But you know, I think we could show some restraint here - let the figures speak for themselves, and understatement hits home hard. I suppose we all have axes to grind - I have one with the BBC's coy reporting of housing issues. If someone told me that they think its unnecessary and over the top, I'd scale it back a little perhaps.
On the other hand you've kept very quiet until now boltonfury.
I'm sure if you were one of the past scrappers with our very own confused76, you wouldn't stoop to using a different moniker just to get at the young lad again, would you?
20. sold out said...
confused
I will vote D everytime.The BTL get rich quick landlord scum have had this coming for a long,long time.Keep laughing now and hopefully for the next 2,3,4 years.
My prediction for correction ( revised from last week ) very heavy falls for the next 18 months 25 to 30% followed by smaller falls for 2010 and 2011, 5% per year.
21. Theboltonfury said...
absolutely not, I read this site loads but have never posted anythng before. I promise!
I take it all back - it seems I am in the minority - laugh away!
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23. x blogger said...
Confused
Im with yuo. Nothing is more wierd than whats been going down over the past decade.
I vote maybe you downsize it.
Like everybody else these days.... I shall resist.
24. Theboltonfury said...
fine - laugh away. I am sorry. I promise I have never posted before, under and guise
25. Submedia said...
Hello,
I have been watching this site develop for over a year now and have found it informative. I thought i might say a few things that i have been thinking about recently. Firstly, the housing market clearly became overvalued because cheap available credit (money) was made available on the world markets. This allowed companies to borrow large amounts of money at low rates and offer credit (money) to people freely which in turn allowed people to purchase homes more often and at greater prices which caused a decoupling of wage to house price ratio. This allowed the house prices to go up as people could borrow the money to pay for the houses. Ok. What is now happening in the world markets - mainly Europe and America - is that the risk models that were used to measure if a loan of credit should be made to a person / company are now being re calculated. The reason this recalculation has happened - as most of you know - is because insurance companies will not underwrite the debt that the mortages / credit / money require because they cannot price the risk. If they can't do this then banks cannot confidently lend to one another. Hence the credit crunch. We are now going through a period of more expensive (historically still very low however !), less easy to get credit which is forcing inflationary pressure on house prices down. Which we all agree is a good thing! However, I am worried that interest rates from the BOE will be cut to soon as they are forced to stimulate consumer spending and prevent a crash in the housing market. My main worry is that if they cut interest rates to early next year they will cause a spike in the house prices upwards and an increase in inflation from foods and oil etc. Basically, as i see it any such cut would have a negative long term impact on our economy. Does anyone have any ideas about the interest rates and how they will effect things in the big picture with house prices and that? I think we should hold interest rates at this level for a year to purge the excesses and find a more stable ground on which to build. I know, however, that the BOE will probably cut the rates to help the banks and CML people. I don't know if we are at the crash just yet. But maybe we have almost reached the last mad frenzy of printing more money and inflating the balloon before it pops. This is not good for anyone including those of us who are renting as we need our jobs and our economy. Maybe we need a new economy and banking system? What are your thoughts?
26. Morbotheterrible said...
I see why some people are delighted by the current situation and are revelling in the prospect of a full blown crash, which will restore some sanity to the market. Lets be honest though, a lot of people will suffer and surely nobody wants that. It is too easy to lump all BTL's into the greedy scum category. A lot of them are hard working people who were trying to get ahead of the game, just like everyone on here is, be they goldbugs or STR's looking to buy at the bottom of the next cycle. Furthermore there will be plenty of first time buyers who have scrimped and saved to get onto the property ladder who are going to be stuck with negative equity and rising repayments in the event of a crash. I sold to rent 18 months ago because I believed there was going to be a reduction in property prices, but I will not be gloating if I am proved right. I think it is slightly ironic that some who are critical of the selfish vested interests in the current high prices, have a selfish vested interest in a crash.
27. drewster said...
I like the idea of a Christmas "ho ho ho", upper or lower case is fine. After Christmas you can return to the standard laughter!
Off-topic:
For a jolly light-hearted Christmas film to watch with the family, try "Maxed Out: Hard Times, Easy Credit and the Era of Predatory Lenders". It's an American documentary exploring the evil workings of the US credit industry, how they prey on the most needy, and their unhealthy influence on politicians. Featuring interviews with estate agents, people losing their houses, students with credit cards, and a savvy pawn shop manager. Filmed in 2005-06, available now on DVD and free at Google Video.
28. cyril said...
Confused
I think you need to upgrade to a more evil and sinister laugh but I've no idea how to spell it.
As I have said before though, there is no satisfaction is saying 'I told you so'. Nobody likes a smart-ass. There is some personal satisfaction in having not wasted all your money, but it is too to for this because house prices are still astronomically high. They need to shrink by at least 30% before I start laughing..
29. paul said...
Ah horseshit then D it is.
The "muahahaaaaaa" is included in EU directive 1995/97b as meaning "everything is going to my evil plan".
I recommend a "Hehehe" while looking left- and rightwards around the room. This is the internationally accepted expression for "everything is going to my plan".
30. confused76 said...
Ok, I also think it is time to change my laughter, t was becoming a bit stale too
In any case, ve you watched this.... quite funny
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOv1UMDqBD4&feature=related
31. Theboltonfury said...
Ok,I'm sorry. Keep the laugh :-)
32. Another Alan said...
uahahahahahahadaviduhuhuhuhahahahahahahuhhauahuadavid
stale - definitely
33. handle_it said...
Can I just ask if I start acting in a "professional and less contrived manner" that my account is closed. Thank you. mooooha ha hA HA HAHA HA! ...
34. x blogger said...
Just checking lol
35. Mr Crabs said...
Confused, you must not stop!. It always makes me smile when I read you posts. Personally, I think a bit of harmless laughter at the VI's misfortune is mild. I rather see them all burn.
36. hoyo said...
Yeah Yeah keep going with the ahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaa
But lay off the mwuauhhhhhh abit
The more immature the better aaaaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaa love it ;-)
I think everyone imagines the laugh in their own way I know it's dr evil but imagine it more of a Vivienne from the young ones ahahah ha ha
37. little professor said...
D
Just downsize it a bit.
38. realist75 said...
We need to keep our dignity people. If the slump is anywhere near as bad as it should be, then some of us WILL lose our jobs.
39. hoyo said...
I would like to think any HPC'er worth their salts has placed themselves in a fairly resession proof job ;-)
40. Maihem said...
Something simple (no silly mua-), unobtrusive (lowercase), and dry: ahahahaha ahaha aha hah
41. su said...
Hoyo.
I guess I'm not going to lose my main job - being a mum, but my paid job is not recession proof.
If things get much worse though I could always sell the Big Issue - some BI sellers can't speak English well and live in rented apartments. People are very generous where I live and these BI sellers seem to "earn" a lot of money - certainly enough to fight over their local patch when others try to move in.
42. realist75 said...
Hoyo, I wouldn't bet on it.
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