Wednesday, Nov 07, 2007
Economic Confidence
Safe Haven: The Stock Market and the Business Cycle
Article about 8.6-year global business cycle. This ties in nicely with the 17-18 year secular cycles seen in property, stocks and commodities.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:46 PM (699 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Quote
"A final point worth mentioning is that like the 1998.55 major business cycle peak the 2007.15 peak did not usher-in the ultimate high for global equities. There was a serious setback for equities during July-October of 1998, but led by the tech sector the senior stock indices remained in long-term upward trends until the 2000.7 minor business cycle peak. Something similar this time round would result in the global stock market rally reaching its ultimate high during the first quarter of 2009."
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Unlike the author's quote in comment 1, I don't think there is another stocks blow-off phase to reach ultimate highs in Q1 2009. I think the perfect storm is gathering over the next few months. Possibly in Q1 2008 we will see a combined emerging stocks and western stocks crash combined with an Eastern European and Middle East currency crisis. This could bring stocks down by 25-40%. There will then be a recovery similar to the one after the 1929 crash whereby stocks recover significant amounts of their losses until Q1 2009. From Q2 2009 to 2012 we will then see stocks fall 70-80% in real terms from their tops.
Why do I think this? Because since 10/2007 stocks have been alligned with long term interest rates. After the 1998 crisis IRs went up with stocks. IRs are going to be falling to near zero between now and 2011 and so will stocks.
3. planning4acrash said...
www.propertysnake.co.uk update: 117,145 properties!!
4. techieman said...
The K-wave and the 5th wave of the grand supercycle. the 64 quadzilliontrillion question is have these and the above cycles reached a terminal phase. Interesting article. look for the K-wave and we will see.
5. seanb303 said...
k-winter is on its way
6. sold 2 rent 1 said...
and the website is nearly finished too
http://www.kwinter.co.uk/
He he.