Thursday, Nov 08, 2007
0.5% down in October
BBC: Halifax sees house price slowdown
"...prices fell by 0.5% in October..."
Full report here .
The last 6 months has seen wait for it ... 0.6% growth in prices (i.e. a fall because this is below RPI).
Posted by voiceofreason @ 09:26 AM (811 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. paul said...
Funny how the BBC says "The results contradict the latest research from Nationwide, which showed prices picking up during October.". Now I wonder why they don't say that the Nationwide results contradict these results.
Oops, careful BBC your bias is showing again!
2. Pelethar said...
Great find - talk about damning the report by paying it scant attention - I've never seen such a short article on the bbc's website! All they do is report the headline figure and then basically say that it's wrong, and leave it at that. The house of cards is falling!
3. Crash Already! said...
I think inferring bias from the direction in which the contradiction is highlighted is somewhat of a stretch. Contradiction does not necessarily imply inaccuracy on the part of the article making the contradiction.
More interestingly as those with vested interests have been tinkering (if not outright cooking) the figures to exaggerate house prices for the last few years, when prices do start to fall properly the absolute values of the drops they will be forced to report relative to their own figures from previous months will be even larger than they would otherwise have been. Unless they fiddle the data on the downslope as well (which they will of course).
4. uncle tom said...
If you read the the actual press release from the Halifax - http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePriceIndexOct2007.doc - it starts by saying "...Overall, house prices in the three months to October were 0.3% higher than in the previous quarter.." I am sure we will see this quoted, parrot fashion, by journalists who are mathematically challenged..
Scroll down to the actual table of data and get your calculator out - I calculate that the prices are actually LOWER by 0.85%
There was a similar blatent porkie in last month's press release..!
5. Steve said...
"The stock of unsold property on estate agents' books fell in September to the lowest level since May 2005. " Not round here they haven't. Being a bit of a geek, (sorry, I deal with facts not speculatuion) I've been recording the numbers of houses for sale on Rightmove for a specific area (Rotherham, 5 miles). The numbers speak for themselves.
1 September - 5400 for sale total
7 November - 6309 for sale total
I've compiled the figures in price bands. The biggest increase in numbers for sale are for properties 0-£100k, a 22% increase.
0 - £100k, at 22% increase
100k - 200k at 17% increase.
200k - 300k at 6% increase
300k - 400k at 18% increase
400k - 500k at 17% increase
I also have figures of numbers for sale on Property Snake. Up 53% since 9th October.
When will the spin stop !
6. tyrellcorporation said...
The headline: 'Halifax sees house price slowdown'
The BBC still can't bring themselves to say house prices actually fell!
7. paul said...
Woops-a-daisy - the BBC has updated the article!
They argue:
"The second successive marked fall in house prices provides late support to the case for the Bank of England to trim interest rates today."
Laughable. I bet they're hoping the Bank of England failed to notice that oil prices and production prices are going through the roof.
The BBC editors' game is most definitely up.
8. techieman said...
Wheres David, I'm sure we would all appreciate his appreciation of the situation. But to reiterate these monthly numbers dont mean too much as they are skewable (at least the will be unless / until there is a crash in earnest) - for the moment anecdotal is king.
9. seanb303 said...
david only posts when there's an article saying prices only go up
10. doomwatch said...
I calcualate the % montly drop to be 0.533% based on the dubious "standardised" avg price.
11. sold out said...
I think David has finally moved from his "house prices only go up" position,after reading his postings a few days ago.I expect like all the other VI's he will now be saying that there will only be a "slowdown" or "prices will stagnate" or "only fall 5%".Expect to see David only commenting on news items that try to put a positive spin on the start of the Crash.Incidently the way this is being reported is very similar to the start of the last crash in 88/89.
On another point what is the definition of a crash? I am sure i read somewhere that it was a fall of more than 10% over a defined period of time, but cant remember the exact duration.Does anyone know?
12. Davros said...
Strange how supply issues will support prices in the future but not today?