Tuesday, Oct 23, 2007
WOW - are they really this stupid?
guardian: MPC's Barker says housing market is resilient
"The crisis in financial markets is unlikely to prompt a property crash or even bring the upward trend in house prices to an end, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee said today.
Kate Barker, ..."
...who couldn't justify her wage if her life depended on it...
Posted by inbreda @ 02:44 PM (1674 views) Add Comment
23 Comments
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1. Davros said...
Well she's living in dreamland then.
The upward trend in houseprices is already at an end, Greenspan is expecting a fall, the IMF is expecting a fall. Perhaps as she was one of those responsible for the bubble in the first place, it's to be expected.
2. Paranoia Blue said...
This is one of the scariest posts that I have ever read on this site!!
3. whiteknight said...
hmm..
4. planning4acrash said...
Kate Build-Em-High Barket has a vested interest. Her major report to the treasury claimed that only 2million new houses and concreting of the greenbelt would improve affordability and was touted as the major Brownite assault on the planning system. All that from an economist, who should really understand the role of cheap credit and the existence of a credit bubble.
5. whiteknight said...
I don't wish to be disparaging or anything and people can make comments that dont reflect the full breadth of their capability from time to time .. everybody does ........... however, does it sometimes feel like a bozo explosion has occurred in the uk? and a good proportion of them have hit positions of serious decision making?
6. dugmug said...
P4C has it dead right I reckon, she is one of many "experts" who've waxed lyrical without really understanding the problem at all, and will shortly be looking very silly as a result (along with those muppets from the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit that keep predicting the average house price will be £1million by the middle of next week - ok, slight exageration, but not much - in order to justify their newly created existence).
Still, if she's really believes this nonsense, at least there's less chance of the MPC lowering rates, and so making the long term outlook for the economy even worse!
7. d'oh said...
...and how much is her salary? I suppose that it is a good thing for the MPC to have a wide range of opinions...from the intelligent to the downright moronic.
8. confused76 said...
The Guardian article conflicts with that of the Times (see previous post) where Barker is reported saying that current house prices are not fully explained by fundamentals and that sentiment is changing
Are Times and Guardian talking about two different Barkers, or - as usual - we are looking at yet another example of media spin spin spin??
9. whiteknight said...
good spot - if that is the case.
10. Buytolet said...
Excellent!
I was thinking of adding a property on my buy-to-let portfolio.
HPC : full of pessimists
11. confused76 said...
I found what she said quite sensible, for a change...
================= from the TImes
Kate Barker, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the author of two Government reports on the UK planning system, said that because 12 per cent of mortgage lending now goes on buy-to-let (BTL) , "a decline in this demand, even if existing BTL owners do not decide to sell, could well dampen the market".
Ms Barker said today that the housing market was "vulnerable to a major change in expectations" and appeared to be slowing.
She added that the process could be exacerbated by a decline in buy-to-let activity that may suffer from higher interest rates, little change in rents and possibly reduced expectations of price rises.
Ms Barker said in a speech to the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales that first-time buyers could enter the BTL market and support prices but they might also stay out of the sector if they expected a fall in prices.
While low rates, a stable economy and supply constraints had kept house prices growth strong, Ms Barker said that the current level of prices was "on many estimates, above a level explained by these fundamentals".
It was "therefore somewhat vulnerable to a major change in expectations about future prices".
12. whiteknight said...
where were the specifics of the Guardian piece which are entirely different coming from - any ideas?
13. Adobbing said...
The fact that she feels like this is good for those not on the housing market. If she feels that the housing market is not under threat, she will be less likely to lean towards a bail out rate cut in the next MPC meeting, keeping her mind instead on what she should be concentrating on - inflation. There is a lot of pressure on the MPC to take account of the housing market and her attitude in public is hopefully backed by similar resolve in the meeting itself.
14. New User 2007 said...
I actually think she was quite balanced within her own political constraints. Unlike many of the vested interests, the MPC has a different kind of vested motive. When all the major commercial/investment banks and money movers in the world are analysing your every word (as they do the words of central bankers), the said central bankers must have the abiliy to say lots without saying anything...she gets paid for statements that give a nougat for everyone to interpret in their own way.
Raj.
15. planning4acrash said...
Sounds like each paper cherry picked a well balanced report to emphasise the storey the editor wanted written.
16. Bubbles. . . . said...
snt it strange that the Brits who have lost the world cup,the Grand Prix Championship, and are not quanlifying for the European finals in football are happy! Wherea's the Germans and the rest of the scandinavian countries who are doing well are miserable! We are doing everything wrong we know except getting more obese drinking more and generally as eveidenced by our unmarried mothers having a great time!
If Keymes came back he would love it and as we said during the war "its being so cheerful that keeps us going". God looks after "fools and drunks", and he is english after all as we all know!
17. vfr said...
Promoted to their level of incompetence
18. C'mon Correction said...
What she is saying without realising it is that in her opinion house prices will keep rising and rising, thus having ever more upward pressure on the wages needed for people to afford them. In effect that mean a huge inflationary spiral...... so why doesn't she also state that interest rates will go higher and higher ??
19. whiteknight said...
how come is it that each of these reports have sentences which can mean precisely the opposite thing? ... OK i am not naive... but do we have any traders left.
Take a position. I wonder how many people can take a position. Anybody can waffle. Now make a bet.
20. alan said...
Kate should really know better. she is supposed to understand economics, debt and banking.
I have a feeling she is saying this with her fingers crossed, hoping nobody will notice the debt riddled state of this country.
21. sold out said...
buytolet,
HPC:FULL OF REALISTS.
Keep on adding to your portfolio if thats what you believe. How about next time you post you can enlighten all the pessimistic fools on this site why the housing market wont crash?The crash has allready started your best option would be to wise up and start selling now.
22. Exiled said...
if she is right about the market then is goes against abn amro, oecd, imf, which all say that the market is at least 40% overvalued. its amazing that someone in her position can come out definitively on such a issue, i assume she presumably has an economics degree.
23. Davros said...
Buytolet, fill your boots!