Wednesday, Oct 24, 2007
WHY does UK's ONS dream up population oom for 2080 while EuroStat states decrease from 2040???
The Independent: A portrait of Britain in 2031
'On current trends, the ONS now forecasts the numbers in Britain will grow to ... 85.3 million in 2081.'
This squarely contradicts EuroStat's projections (e.g. in News Release 48/2005 - 8 April 2005) of a steady UK population decrease after 2040. They admit previous ONS statistics got it completely wrong by "extrapolat[ing] the effects of the post-war 'baby boom'". So how can the ONS develop a reliable projection by basing it on extrapolations of "current trends", rather than assuming less favorable economic conditions and deducting one-time effects (EU enlargement)!
The sudden interest in talking up a population increase coincides with the leveling-off of house prices. Is the timely publishing of the ONS' latest ‘facts’ merely a well-meant attempt of keeping house prices from plunging?
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