Friday, Oct 26, 2007
Volumes down 12% on the year
LandReg: House prices Sept2007
Prices up 0.4% but volumes down 12% (15% in London). So is the small price increase statistically significative? The large volume drop has a considerable effect on the average price. Also, sales volume data is only up to August, I bet the full carnage will be evident in two / three months time (when they publish the post-august-crunch and post-northern-crock data).
Posted by confused76 @ 02:04 PM (1545 views) Add Comment
22 Comments
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1. uncle tom said...
Although this is arguably the most authoritative data source, it is also the most out of date. There is a gap of around 8-12 weeks between a house sale being agreed, and the data getting logged on the land registry.
Taking that into account, their data is broadly in line with the Halifax, whose next data release may well show zero, or even negative price movement over the last six months..
..but I bet they don't highlight that!
2. Nova Sideliner said...
Volumes are the leading indicator; prices will lagging. So prices being (barely) up or (barely) down would be the norm when volumes first start to drop. It takes a long while for sellers to finally realise that they can't get their asking price, as in months or more. Not until sellers have had to sit with empty houses do the prices follow the volume trend. Look at the USA, where this pattern is already in progress in some cities.
3. Proteus said...
Odd. The overall South East average price allegedly fell this month. Yet when you look at the detail, only 2 (yes two) South Eastern counties/unitary authorities/metropolitan districts recorded a fall.
How does that work then ?
4. Nmarks said...
I suspect that prices have risen for those homes that have sold as they are being bought by people ignorant of the impending crash and still feel upping the ante is still the done thing.
A comparison of the value of total transactions is telling.
5. maddison said...
8-12 weeks is ambitious. Many transactions take a lot longer
6. dugmug said...
Yes - I've known quite a few people who've bought houses over the years - parents, friends, family - and yet I don't think I've ever known any sale go though in less than 3 months. From what I can gather (from listening to their exasperated tales of numerous phonecalls and letters), this is generally down to both parties' solicitors refusing to proceed at anything more than glacial pace, and then getting it wrong even when they do act, which is ludicrous, but I digress...
The point is that these figures will mainly represent prices that were actually agreed in June at best, which is long before the credit crunch, tightened lending criteria, etc, and yet sales volumes were already down and prices could only manage a 0.4% rise, with four regions' prices actually going down. The November data, presumably to be released late Dec/early Jan (depending if those Land Reg bods have a Christmas or not) should be REALLY interesting!
7. Disillusioned said...
Shouldn't volumes be increasing as people try to sell without success?
8. david20040_0 said...
Or maybe just maybe a house price isn't occuring, anyone see the story from the BBC today 9.5* income by 2026.
9. enuii said...
David, the whole scenario is operating on two levels, if by 2026 young adults are having to borrow nigh on 10x their earnings to buy a first time buyer hovel and are having to fund a money purchase pension pot then something has to give. Also interest rates would have to be mega low to make this scenario even possible as 6% would gobble up virtually all their take home wage at a near 10x multiple. Bearing in mind that the earliest pension contributions are the most lucrative we have a catch 22 scenario of pension or house. Mind you the prospective 10x multiple purchaser could always forgo the pension and use his 'property investment' to fund his retirement in a BTL cardboard box.
UNSUSTAINABLE
10. david20040_0 said...
Every month, media outlets report that there is finally a slowdown, this has been going on for months. OK so prices only rose by 0.4% in April, but 0.4% of 200k is still £800. How many people can afford to save that a month, and that is in a slowdown.
Winter is historically a slow time for sales.
And with the BBC reporting that house prices will be 9.5* salary soon that is really scary.
When average house prices went through the 100k barrier in 2002 how many thought that house prices would go through 200k in 2006 for average prices?
11. Test said...
Significative? What the feck does that mean?
12. Collywolly said...
Try it yourself David.
Put in ten times your salary, give an interest rate of 5 or 6 percent (unlesss you are expecting them to go down and stay down for 25 years). Look at the payments. Even taking out a 30 year mortgage at 6% looks like taking up most of my take home pay, leaving me with about £10 a week to survive on.
13. ck one said...
David hows the treatment going?
14. wiltshire said...
David, when did the US driving season end????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
15. Oserdavid said...
You can't talk of statistical significance if it's not a 'sample'. It's a 'population' statistic. It simply is 0.4%. Whether it is a 'meaningful' difference or not is another matter...
16. uncle tom said...
David,
You are probably here just to wind people up - and with some success!
However, if you really believe what you are saying, then you really need to find a good person who you can trust to look after your money for you - otherwise, you won't have any...
17. Orwell said...
Dug mug...
Try doing your own conveyancing and see how difficult and long winded it is... The conveyancing can be done immediately if you don't want any security of title and you don't have a mortgage.
Tell me, do you need a grant of probate, letters of administration (or letters of administration with a (defective) will annexed to it? Fancy parting with title to a disgruntled creditor or beneficiary who hasn't been paid out? Or worst still parting with a big fat cheque? What about if a road is being driven through the back garden? Will compensation be enough? Is your property sat on an old chemical works? I am sure your children would enjoy playing around in the mud without confirmation that it is cleaned up. Fancy the Local Authority coming and asking for settlement that should have been made of a prior local charge on the property raised when they repaired a contaminated site or an unsafe building? Fancy losing part of the garden because of an ongoing disopute over the land in Court?
Why not try doing some winding up of estates as well? And, if one has been meddling with an estate and dies one needs a grant de bonis non by the way and has to prove both estates....
18. brightonrentfodder said...
to Disillusioned, Hi there. about the volumes; they're definitely going up here, that's why Fox & Sons were recently ringing around in Brighton to get sellers to drop their prices so they could actually make some money this month for their so called "property sale". i.e. plenty of houses and flats for sale, but everyone still sitting on ridiculous prices.
19. planning4acrash said...
David, go buy a house and come back here in 3yrs time and tell us how you got on, m'kay?!
20. inbreda said...
On the basis that I find it impossible to argue against David 2004s comments (logically at least) I agree that he should just go and buy a house now before it is out of reach. Best grab on to the bottom rung of the ladder before it's out of reach David.
21. Onyerhike said...
David's pearls of wisdom reflect the logic and thinking of many people. I came across David's logic when I was trying to convince my nephew, who earns about £25000 a year, why he should not invest in a 2 bed flat that cost £160 000 !! I had to give up. I couldn't get past the "I know a bloke down the pub who owns 30 BTL flats and he is only 17 years old - he's raking it in" arguments. Luckily, he didn't buy !
But David is taking the pizz. Anyone with a gram of self value wouldn't hang around for the verbal abuse and character assasination that he takes if they were really serious about their comments. Maybe he is Glorious Sunshine's alter ego !
22. planning4acrash said...
Oh guys, realise that David_90210 is not writing to the regular posters, he's paid by VI's to put doubt into the minds of casual visitors who know nothing about the situation, that is why he never appears to have learned anything. If there's a truth you don't want somebody to understand, you only need to put doubt into peoples minds. That's how the climate change denial industry works and the tobacco one that proceeded it. I wish I got paid for using this site!