Tuesday, Oct 16, 2007
Two words: INFLATION - RECESSION
BBC News: Oil reaches new records above $87
Oil prices have hit record levels above $87 a barrel amid tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq and output concerns.
"All the factors in the market are bullish. There are no bearish factors except maybe that the market looks like it has been overbought, technically."
Posted by planning4acrash @ 03:47 PM (913 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. david20040_0 said...
I have one word "wow". If CPI drops now then my dad is Santa Claus.
2. Cheekie Charlie said...
This comes with national stocks at 5 year lows and before the winter peak demand! Best Gordon readjusts the fuel weighting on CPI or the media won't be able to smugly anounce the next move on IR will be down.
3. Delboypass said...
September inflation remained steady at 1.8%...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7046513.stm
The UK inflation rate remained unchanged at 1.8% in September, according to official figures.
The main upward pressure on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) came from rising food prices, but these were offset by falling energy bills.
The rate remains below the government's 2% target. Analysts say an imminent interest rate rise change is unlikely.
The RPI inflation measure - which includes mortgage interest payments - fell to 3.9% in September from 4.1%
4. Mr Crabs said...
david,
ho ho ho, merry christmas!
5. new_order said...
Amazing how selfish we are. The last kurdish refuge is about to be bombed to shit and all we can think about is how quickly it will make our wonderful crash come? I guess it reminds us that we are not at the bottom of the pile afterall.
I do hope that the fighting stays "over there" and that Turkish and Kurdish gangs in north London don't get involved because I use the metropolitan line for work and the last time I checked, those carriages are not bullet proof. Then again, it gets extremely crowded so I have plenty of human shields.
6. whiteknight said...
i believe inflation + recession or stagnation has been known as stagflation in the past.
This word used to cast fear into the hearts of all who came across it.
I see no reason for this to change. It looks like a very nasty combination indeed. It would have been better to allow a simple recession.
7. whiteknight said...
A problem with no solution except pain and time?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
8. whiteknight said...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
9. deepak said...
I think I heard on working lunch today that oil prices are not a part of inflation measure..
Which I found surprising. And the rise of fuel price at the pump in UK has been more because of the rise of 2.5 pence fuel duty rather than the price of oil.
I would also like to add most of the contracts for oil are long term. So these big companies could still be paying 2000-2002 prices ( $10 a barrell). Only what they have to buy from spot market which will not be more than 15-20% of there sale at best is at these high prices $80 or so.
10. planning4acrash said...
Deepak, oil feeds through of course into food via higher costs for fertiliser, fuel and competition with biofuel, feeds through straight away into petrol and feeds through slowly into ALL other goods and services if a spike in oil prices lasts too long to be absorbed in margins. Since the MPC make decisions for the next few years it should weigh heavily on their minds. Particularly now that they don't have political pressure to keep rates low for an election.
11. deepak said...
planning4acrash, That means inflation calculated is not representative of actual life.
Because oil effects you immidiately as you fill up for your transportation.
I agree you pay for it though other products as well. (Ripple effect of inflation in core commodities)
12. planning4acrash said...
Petrol forms part of CPI. Petrol is a consumer product, Oil is not, that's why petrol is targetted by CPI and oil is not.