Monday, Oct 29, 2007
The UK housing market is trending towards at least 1 quarter of price action that could be termed as a crash. The most probable quarter is April to June 2008.
The Market Oracle: UK House Prices - Primary Reasons For a Sharp Fall
1. Buy to Lets Mass Selling
2. Foreclosures (Repossessions)
3. Home Owners Downsizing.
4. Credit Crunch
5. Affordability
6. Lack of First Time Buyers
Posted by disillusioned @ 03:12 PM (1584 views) Add Comment
14 Comments
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1. Dave The Box said...
Already posted by David 90210. I know, I was amazed too!
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/10/blog-uk-house-prices-primary-reasons-for-a-sharp-fall-7720.php
Us Davids have to stick together....
2. dugmug said...
Just to say that David actually posted this last thing yesterday. And 9 comments were added. Yet none gave Dave any credit for posting a bearish article for once. Which I found odd. So here's me saying well done to David, maybe not a lost cause after all...
3. Titch said...
I've just downloaded the sales results for Andrew Robertson auction held on Thursday 25th October. They sold only 55% - this compares with an average of over 80% in 2006 and is 19% less than their worst montly sale to date this year (July - 74%). Wonder where all the btl's were. Either they've run away with their tail between their legs or the prices were very very wrong. I'll do some analysis and let you know what sort of price drops there have been for the ones sold.
4. speculatorone said...
With reference to point 2, does anyone have knowledge of how mortgagees price repossessions and how low their bottom line can be below market value?
Scenario, a local agent has been instructed to sell a repossession last week. It was on the market for £400K until last week. It was bought for £350K in 2003. If the original mortgage was a lot less than the £350K do they tend to be flexible?
Any tips?
5. cyril said...
During the last property crash, reposessions were sold very cheaply leaving many owners with debts still to pay after the house was sold. In typical fashion, the real victims were people who had paid off a substantial chunk of the equity because they lost the lot. People with mega-debts were less likely to be reposessed because they were worth more as repayments than capital.Nice people to do business with.
6. david20040_0 said...
That's because ppl like to knock me a lot of the time. If I just posted bearish articles all the time this site would get broing with all the yes men here of there will be a crash of 289%.
7. Orwell said...
Spec....
They are often insured through the mortgagor. So if the Mortgagor defaults they can then sell at whatever realistic price they want, although there is an argument that they still hold the power of sale on constructive trust so that they have to be a touch carful about selling it at too much of an undervalue. Once they are in possession theyu can sell. They are the legal owner. They still have a duty to sell at a relaistic and the best available price n the market. They will get it valued by an RICS to cover themselves...
8. Techieman said...
I dont think anyone here wants to rent i think everyone eventually wants to own. So nobody is against home ownership per se, its just it makes no sense at the moment (well to me at any rate - too much risk without much upside). I dont think people really want to knock David -if you have a view thats fine. Its just it needs to be supported by facts. We can all say "dont be stupid prices are going up/down/sideways" but i think what gets on peoples nerves is that if a particular view is not supported by any logical thought then really why bother posting? Its quite a challenging site - so respond to the challenge. Whatever you believe is up to you but the question to answer here is why do you believe it. People provide opinions on why they believe deflation / inflation / depression / asset bubbles / hpc / gold appreciation etcs will occur, which i find interesting. Whether you take anything anyone says with a pinch of salt is really up to you but it would just be nice to have a bull with a reasoned argument from time to time. I think the critiscm i would level at anybody is that of a closed mindset. House prices DONT always go up - in other countries there has been devastating falls - its all about mass human physology (which is why the boom bust cycle cannot be thwarted but at best it can only be extended). My view is that any extention on the upside is eventually met with an extention on the downside.
9. Bertywooster said...
In 1992 the the bank offered house opposite mine for 24,000. At the peak of the 80's boom it was sold for £113,000. Repossions will provide a chance for people who just want a home.
10. enuii said...
Good article backed up by stats for a change, though I don't agree with the conclusion, I can see there being a crashette during April to June 2008 though a think this will be a steepening of the existing tail off that is occurring now and I do not see any prospect of a rally, more of a levelling off during July-Sept followed by more significant falls this time next year. Inflation, lack of rising income and an economic downturn will be the deciding factor during 2008 irrespective of any small interest rate reduction if and when they occur.
11. wiltshire said...
David's reputation here is a result of his own actions, no-one elses.
12. Another Dave said...
On this forum, David, you only get the credit if you celebrate house price dips, or predict that the end is nigh. Which is not always as a result of your actions only.
13. inbreda said...
true wiltshire - but we still shouldn't knowck david personally. I like the bullish articles that get posted because tehy reassure me that a crash is inevitable much more than the numerous logical bear arguments.
14. planning4acrash said...
Its when he talks nonsense and repeats untruths that have been discussed with him previously. You know full well what I think his motive is by now! If indeed he is a he and is one person!!