Monday, Oct 15, 2007

The two month measure is at standstill

Firstrung: UK house prices bounce back in September - Rightmove

House prices have rebounded by a strong 2.7 per cent during September to more than wipe out the previous month's fall 0f 2.6% new figures show...Property website Rightmove said the gain during the four weeks to October 6 was the strongest for six months and helped push the average price of a home in England and Wales up to £241,642. At the same time annual house price inflation rose to 10.4 per cent, compared with 9.6 per cent in the previous four week period.

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:30 AM (1290 views) Add Comment

17 Comments

1. Mark said...

this is utter rubbish...

Monday, October 15, 2007 09:49AM Report Comment
 

2. tyrellcorporation said...

Not in Somerset they don't!!!

Monday, October 15, 2007 10:48AM Report Comment
 

3. Claire said...

or cheltenham. prices are falling at a very fast rate

Monday, October 15, 2007 11:00AM Report Comment
 

4. Si said...

I like the way that firstrung hint at their real opinion in the pictures...

i.e. HPC not on radar, with a big pic of a huge blip on a radar. This one is a load of 'hot air' balloons....

I guess I'm easily amused!

Monday, October 15, 2007 11:00AM Report Comment
 

5. James_titcombe said...

Of course asking prices in September have gone up! In a market where people are only buying houses if they get a substantial discount, it’s natural for sellers (and greedy estate agents) to market property at a ludicrous price. This is in the hope that the high asking price will offset the inevitable discount they will need to give if they stand any chance of achieving a sale.

Wait for the actual price sold data to come out, the truth is, Estate agents and sellers are in real panic mode, sales are drying up, buyers are dropping out houses are only being sold if big discounts are offered.

It does bring up interesting issues though; I ‘m currently negotiating on a house purchase. The asking price was £195K and the seller has already said he’ll sell for £182,500. I have offered £178K and won’t increase. It’s interesting that the advertised price of the property is still £195K as I’m sure the seller would increase interest if he lowered it to £182,500. I think there might be a deliberate collaborative policy going on here where estate agents are desperate to avoid reductions in asking prices…

Monday, October 15, 2007 11:01AM Report Comment
 

6. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

 

7. converted lurker said...

the underlying tone of Miles' comments is IMHO that the latest figures should be regarded as a blip. Also if there is a rush to sell, and 3 bed properties for sale are up by 65%, then this will skew the data

Monday, October 15, 2007 11:15AM Report Comment
 

8. C'mon Correction said...

Asking prices fall by 1.3% here in Wales; I'm expecting Wales to hit a yoy negative within 3-4 months. The north, midlands probably too.

Monday, October 15, 2007 11:24AM Report Comment
 

9. Mark said...

most properties in cheshire are dropping price rapidly....

Monday, October 15, 2007 11:47AM Report Comment
 

10. uncle tom said...

This highlights a weakness in Rightmove's methodology, but does not indicate a rise in prices overall.

Basing an index on asking prices is also a little problematic, as it brings some psychological factors into play.

Many vendors will know the minimum price they want to realise for their property, but will also know that buyers are now haggling to get asking prices reduced - so the vendor pitches a higher asking price to provide headroom for negotiation. If the vendors were more confident, they might ask what they really wanted, and refuse to haggle..

Monday, October 15, 2007 12:10PM Report Comment
 

11. inbreda said...

It disguises the fact that a 50% fall is not compensated for by a 50% rise, e.g.

a house is worth 100,000

it falls by 50% to become worth 50,000

it then rises by 50% to be worth 75,000.

obviously less relevant with smaller percentages, but the 2.6% drop followed by the 2.7% rise means that over the last two months prices (asking prices isn't it?) have actually only risen by 0.0298%. If this continues for the remaining ten months of the year, then - even taking into account compounding - the annual rise in house prices will be just 0.1789%.

Even a current account pays more than that.

Monday, October 15, 2007 12:38PM Report Comment
 

12. Techieman said...

Exactly inbreda - which means that a 50% fall wipes out a 100% gain.

100k up to 200k - 100% increase
50% decrease from 200k back to 100k.

Monday, October 15, 2007 01:34PM Report Comment
 

13. su said...

"...a higher proportion of properties coming to the market have more bedrooms and tend to be of higher value,, thus pushing up the average asking price."

I think this explains it. Rightmove also expect a price fall of up to 5% in one month when 1 & 2 bed properties their own HIP deadline.

Monday, October 15, 2007 01:48PM Report Comment
 

14. su said...

Oops Typo! The last line should read:

I think this explains it. Rightmove also expect a price fall of up to 5% in one month when 1 & 2 bed properties hit their own HIP deadline.

Monday, October 15, 2007 01:53PM Report Comment
 

15. su said...

Sorry, I've been quoting from the actual report.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/HousePriceIndex15thOct2007.pdf

Monday, October 15, 2007 02:00PM Report Comment
 

16. george monsoon said...

what a load of ballcocks ..

This county is now officially in meltdown that will last decades, (if we ever recover)

Monday, October 15, 2007 02:19PM Report Comment
 

17. Bulldog66 said...

The same thing derby hundreds off for sale signs

Monday, October 15, 2007 03:17PM Report Comment
 

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