Friday, Oct 19, 2007
Some go extreme length to put a spin on figures!!
aboutproperty: Halifax: House prices up 0.9 per cent
"Prices in Northern Ireland have increased by 29.1 per cent in the previous twelve months – however prices in the region are down 3.2 per cent in the three months." Sounds like it s crashing to me!
Posted by confused76 @ 11:02 PM (632 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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1. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Hmm. Not until you get to the last couple of paragraphs do you get the longer view, but the well worn trot about strong market fundamentals is trotted out to close. I think one of these spokespeople should be made to name them and reexamine whether they are true.
- Immigration: with twelve to a house, this might explain 1%
- Shortage: with hundreds of thousands of empty "investment units" what shortage there is is speculative
- Low unemployment: apart from the near-dailiy reports of job losses, the coming recession (if not worse) will change that
Based on past performance it's unlikely Mr Brown will ever admit to declining figures. If they can't be propped they will be cooked and if they can't be cooked they will not be reported.
If Darling trims his growth forecasts and Gold bugs are calling the second great depression, then I suppose the likely median route is a recession (depression staved off by government and corporate, lying, cheating and stealing). I tend to the depression myself, so am keeping enough gold for 2 plane tickets out of here if things get ugly.
2. confused76 said...
Halifax: house prices up 0.9% (but in 3 months!!)
that means a rate of 3.2% a year! My savings account does better than this
Thats perhaps why we do not read from David, Paolo and the other property optimists on this site anymore..?
3. Rep013 said...
0.9% up in the quarter 0.6& down for September MMmmmm, not mentioned that in this porn show ... however, nice quote
"Nationally, house prices in quarter three were 0.9 per cent higher than in the previous quarter. This compares with increases of 2.3 per cent in 2007 quarter two and three pre cent in 2007 quarter one, marking a continuing steady downward trend in the rate of house price growth since the end of 2006," commented Martin Ellis, chief economist at Halifax.
4. su said...
Figures for house prices in Scotland are reported as being up - as I expected. I've always suspected the Scottish dual pricing system (Offers Over & Fixed Price) skewed the figures. It is customary for those wishing a quick sale to opt for the FP.
I thought I'd share some of my own observations of house prices in a commuter area for Edinburgh. All properties are 4-bed new/newish built and have been displayed on Rightmove over the last couple of months approx with a starting price of not more than £200K.
A year ago the EAs were suggesting offering 20% over the O/O price
Two months ago EAs were suggesting offering 15% over the O/O price
In the last couple of weeks EAs have dropped this to 7-12%
I was also told I could try offering under the FP too!
59 properties have been displayed in the last 2 months.
44 are still for sale.
25 are currently FP
19 are currently O/O.
10 FP have been sold
5 O/O have been sold
13 houses have changed from O/O to FP
The Price changes are detailed below:
O/O 189K to FP 220K
O/O 199K to FP 216K
O/O 195K to FP 210K
O/O 198K to FP 202K
O/O 179K to FP 199,950
O/O 189K to FP 199K
O/O 189,500 to FP 197,500
O/O 184,500 to FP 195K (SOLD)
O/O 193K to FP 199,999 to FP 194,999
O/O 189K to FP 194,875
O/O 179K to FP 199,950 to FP 194,000
O/O 175K to FP 199K
O/O 172,500 to FP 187K
There were also a couple of straightforward reductions
O/O 194,950 to O/O 179K
FP 193K to FP 188K
And one straightforward price increase
O/O 175K to O/O 182K
5. uncle tom said...
Now, why suddenly quote a quarterly figure - and not the usual monthly one?
Methinks the data for the last month may be negative..
6. uncle tom said...
Just checked the Halifax site and yes they fell by 0.6% in September.
BUT - check out this link and access the price report - then get your calculator out
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/nationalpressrelease.asp
By my reckoning, the growth over 2007 Q3 is just 0.5% - NOT 0.9%..
Also, growth over the last six months has been a mere 2% - so if prices start slipping by a percent or two each month, the annual figure could go below zero before the spring.