Saturday, Oct 27, 2007
More oil for the Housebuilding Gravy Train Please!
Guardian: Building 3m new homes will not end crisis, adviser warns minister
Plans to build 3m new homes in England by 2020 will not be enough to meet the deepening housing crisis advises the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit which takes account of rising demand for larger family homes, an increase in second home ownership, and a rise in empty properties.
Posted by enuii @ 03:29 PM (1362 views) Add Comment
29 Comments
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1. david20040_0 said...
This artcile is completely correct.
3 million homes is not going to solve anything if many more people are entering the country by this stage.
Are you guys comnpletely detached from reality.
If the population goes up to 70 million, 3 million homes is going to make screw all difference.
2. paul said...
It's been said a number of times here David - there are some fundamentals you're not understanding. What's more the Grauniad is one of the very few sources other than the government mouthpiece BBC that has taken any notice of this rather slanted piece of extrapolation.
You have to understand that the further you extrapolate into the future, the more ridiculous the premise and conclusions become. The National Housing and Planning Advice Unit can extrapolate away any scenario they want to as long as they pick their base measurement carefully.
You shouldn't be led so easily. Quite frankly neither should the BBC or the Grauniad but lets face it they want eyeballs on their stories, not the truth.
3. enuii said...
This whole scenario is entirely dependant on where we are going as a county.
Quote "But the planning unit warned that average house prices could rise sharply over the next 20 years, with the south-east, south-west and east of England all becoming more expensive than London. Even its proposals, which would amount to 270,000 new homes a year by 2016, would merely "stabilise long-term affordability", keeping the average house price in 2026 to eight times earnings instead of the present seven.
Now correct me If I'm wrong but if you can't afford to buy a house now you never will be able to according to this. The statement is also highly dependant on the UK being able to SUSTAIN its MIRACLE ECONOMY. If the miracle economy is all about the finance sector then affluent will get more so and the rest will fall behind in poorly paid service sector and government jobs.
The UK IS BROKE but doesn't want to admit it, depopulation of the UK is the only way to a sustainable economic future on this little island.
4. su said...
I vaguely remember some talk about schools in England gearing at least some pupils towards skills needed in local industries. Does anyone know if anything came of that? Or have the industries themselves collapsed.
5. enuii said...
The only non-academic 'skill' on offer at local secondary schools in the Northwest is Construction and is entirely geared towards housebuilding in the local area. Any downturn in 'construction' will not do the non-academic pupils who take the option up any favours as they will not find employment with it when they leave school. As for Local Industries that produce Exportables they have long since Exported themselves so do not need factory fodder any more, all other the remaining jobs are in the 'service' and local government sectors of which 'childcare' is a particularly booming one.
6. Surfgatinho said...
david20040_0 - Give up. You don't get anything!
7. Jonb said...
David,
Another 10m Polish Workers on minimum wage are not going to push the price of a 1 bed flat up from £250k to £500k.
The most they can afford to pay to buy a house on their income is £40k, so they are long since priced out the market.
Besides, I doubt there would be jobs for that many Polish workers, so they wouldn't come here, or indeed that many Polish workers around to actually come, as that is about 1/3 of their population.
8. Tim Glover said...
I am dismayed by the shoddy thinking exhibited by people making important decisions Academics are the worst of all blind bigots because they think they are so clever they are infallable I speak from personal knowledge and experience). This article is further proof that most people believe what they want to believe, irrespective of the facts.
We have to keep banging the drum that most talk about "supply and demand" is piffle, because people confuse EMOTIONAL demand ("I want a house!") with ECONOMIC demand - being both WILLING and ABLE to pay for it.
Prices have NOT gone up because people are more emotional about it. They have gone up because they have been WILLING and ABLE to pay.
They have been WILLING becuse the financial sharks cheated them out of their pensions, so they want a safe place for their money
They have been ABLE because the very same sharks have lent them 6 times their STATED salary, often in the knowledge that there was no hope of being repayed, hpoing to reposess the house.
But the stupid sharks got too greedy, and the whole structure is now collapsing about their ears.
Population, immigration, house building have NOTHING I repeat NOTHING to do with it!
9. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
10. planning4acrash said...
Most people don't think, they seek consensus. That's what a person would exploit if they wanted to support a VI view on a blog. Somebody taking such an approach would not appear to be learning from discussion because they would have to repeat standard vested interest viewpoints to maintain the sense of a lack of consensus. As soon as they began discussing the complex issues brought up here their argument would begin to fall down.
11. planning4acrash said...
Most people are very trusting Tim, so if I go to a broker who offers me a loan and I see everywhere in the papers that prices can only go up, I will borrow as much as I can. The public have been mislead into borrowing as much as they can. As a result, bankers can lend as much as they can, and when they lend, they effectively generate money from almost nowhere, so this money floods the system and causes inflation. House prices got unsustainable because people were fed lies and because bankers wanted to make a killing and lend as much as they possibly could to make profit and fight for market share.
12. sold out said...
This story really is a desperate attempt by bottler Brown and the VI's to attempt to keep the wheels on the Housing gravy train(1 wheel already gone another rattling loose as we speak).Its the same old re-hashed nonsence story that came out a few weeks back.Desperate scare tactic for the masses "if you dont buy now you will never afford to" type garbage.
How stupid and gullable do they think we are and why has this story suddenly appeared again today? Too many negative stories about housing i guess so they come out with this pathetic rubbish.
Hpc bloggers party still looking good for may/june 08
13. Jolo said...
This all sounds like a bit of positive spin to keep that feel good factor running just a little bit longer!
14. Compounded said...
If the investment demand for residential property were eliminated, there would be plenty now at a reasonable price.
Its all the retirement savings that should have more properly been in pensions that have bid up house prices (GB & Financial Institution dishonesty have destroyed confidence in pensions)
Simple as that
15. Jayseaa said...
One of the fundamentals crucial to the debate is the transitory nature of the recent large scale migration which is in part due to strength of the UK economy and the relative weakness of the donor countries economies. In short as these improve (which they will) and ours declines (which many indicators suggest it is already) there is little holding recent migrants here. In actual fact it is a bit of a no brainer, stay in a crappy declining crime ridden cesspool or go home, as its not so bad now (and getting better all the time), watch for a mass exodus (and 3m surplus homes - you'll be able to buy a town David) cheers for the miracle Gordy....
16. david20040_0 said...
No it doesn't
17. uncle chris said...
I'm not sure you will be invited David, even if you do manage to pull your head out of the sand.
18. Bigyin said...
Don't encourage him, he'll just turn up and whine.
I keep telling the misery to stop moaning and buy a house but he never answers...unless he's already got one plus some BTLs and comes on here trying and failing to wind people up.
19. david20040_0 said...
Counting your chickens a little too early, Sep was a 0.4% increase, not a massive rise but still £800 on an average house. Not an amazing rise but still above inflation.
20. pecker said...
David, you truely do have the memory of a goldfish and the brain of a weasel! Stop talking/thinking like a baby!
21. wiltshire said...
It's just the actions of a troll at the end of the day. He never gets into any meaningful discussions, he never responds to any specific questions, he never comments on anything other than the most obvious VI propaganda stories which he champions. He just pops up once a week or so to sprout the same old pony about the fact the UK is smaller than the USA and fact that most of Eastern Europe are currently on a fleet of coaches heading our way. These two reasons alone have me convinced that house prices will probably double between now and Christmas!
As I've said before - Rome is burning, David is fiddling.
22. daopig said...
This article confirms my suspicion : that NL were swept to power in 1997, partly because the Conservatives were blamed for the last house price crash. And there is an honest desire to prevent the same kind of calamity from re-occurring. But if Britain and American banks can pull money from their derrieres and then charge their captive plebiscite children the interest. Why would a government give independence to anti-government interests? Were they simply naive? What kind of autonomous banking system would vote for less profits and for national non-debtedness. It does seem that democracy has been under threat in this country for many many years. And now the press is obviously being subverted. I suppose the two are intimately related...
Why don't we have some real news, like has there really been a record-breaking exodus of ex-pats from the UK to Australia, NZ, Spain, Portugal, other over the last 5 years? Is socialism in the UK simply about giving credit to childish citizens, though it is bad for them (and the wider world). Then subconsciously realizing this and instituting bans on activities that are far less serious and provincial like smoking and fox hunting. We certainly live in interesting times.
23. daopig said...
This article confirms my suspicion : that NL were swept to power in 1997, partly because the Conservatives were blamed for the last house price crash. And there is an honest desire to prevent the same kind of calamity from re-occurring. But if Britain and American banks can pull money from their derrieres and then charge their captive plebiscite children the interest. Why would a government give independence to anti-government interests? Were they simply naive? What kind of autonomous banking system would vote for less profits and for national non-debtedness. It does seem that democracy has been under threat in this country for many many years. And now the press is obviously being subverted. I suppose the two are intimately related...
Why don't we have some real news, like has there really been a record-breaking exodus of ex-pats from the UK to Australia, NZ, Spain, Portugal, other over the last 5 years? Is socialism in the UK simply about giving credit to childish citizens, though it is bad for them (and the wider world). Then subconsciously realizing this and instituting bans on activities that are far less serious and provincial like smoking and fox hunting. We certainly live in interesting times.
24. sold out said...
Thanks David,
I have just re-read the article again and now agree with you "This article is completely correct" I cannot believe how "detatched from reality" i have become over the last 6months.i shall now ignore any news or stories i hear about subprime,the credit crunch,interest rates,northern rock,repposessions,record debt levels,record oil price,inflation,deflation,recession and depression.I shall now only beleave The National Housing and Planning Advice Unit.I relalise now how super intelligent this goverment body are,they can predict and foresee what will happen 20 years into the future,wow thats brilliant.If only they had been created by nu labour 5years ago we could of all been prevented from wasting hours of time with this ridiculous HPC website.Thanks David.
PS How about if we started a cult,you and i, we can persuade others on here to join,dont worry you can be leader.I have even thought of a name "Glorious Sunshine".
25. Sold My Soul To The Never Never Never said...
Believe what you want to believe. I downloaded an article in the Washington Post dated Thursday October 27th 2005 exactly 2 years ago with the headline - Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust. He was speaking to Congress - just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve!
He too was going on about the same old fundamental drivel - strong job growth,incomes and numbers of new households.
He also believed that the economy could weather a housing slowdown and however "a moderate cooling in the housing market,should one occur, would not be inconsisternt with the economy continuing to grow at or near its potential next year". He couldn't even predict 2 years in advance!
So it looks like we are heading for a recession then as a sense of deja vu hit me as I'm sure I've heard these same words before and they have been lifted from his speeches and used by our VI's over here. It has been done recently when Gordon was accused of plagiarising an American speech. (well one of our Main politicians - I didn't take too much notice at the time).
26. Nooneo said...
david20040_0 reminds me of another contributor to this site, Caesium who does not appear to contribute any longer (perhaps he simply uses another name?) - He only ever repeated the same old same olds that the VI's keep churning out year in year out and it became obvious that he was another VI himself (an estate agent in Leeds if I remember right). The have nothing really to contribute to intelligent discussion other than their insistance on the "market" as a completely stable and non volatile entity.
Me, I have absolutely no doubt that the housing market will take a nasty dive because you simply can't buck a market for more than the short term. I have a healthy bet with an estate agent friend of mine and even he now thinks that good ol' Krusty Sosoppy pants will be eating her hat before the next 2 years are out.
27. down wave said...
1. david20040_0 said... I think that you are an estate agent that has just been given notice. If not that you are perhaps a Buy-to-let that is trying to intovert every good man and women posting here in to chronic apathy. What do other posters think? In any event, you come across as a manipulative covert hostile at -3.
28. down wave said...
Readinig all of the postings above David is a covert hostile, just like ex T.B. Below in my earlier posting above this on the slide bar:-
G.B's hidden complaint (from himself and others) is: I am right and the world would be a better place if everyone listened and obeyed me (chronic anger -2).
A.D's hidden complaint is (from himself and others -4): I am always loving but others don't love me as much as I love them (chronic grovelling appeasment).
T.B.'s hidden complaint (from himself and others) is: I am a superior person and everyone is jealous of me (chronic covert hostility -3).
A.D is just doing as Starlin G.B tells hime to do and say. G.B and his Golag A.D will terminate their relationship in a big punch-up and what will follow is a1930's type crash!
Sold out is as per A.D. above or is a clandestien conspirtor with david.
29. down wave said...
All of you good people posting:- Please go to the bottom of the page of and download the free E-book by Ruth Minshull entitled: How To Chose Your People. 1972: http://www.goldcenturypress.com/authors.php?id=5