Tuesday, Oct 16, 2007
Is $88 Oil Turkey's fault, or is this peak oil? See this monthly update report and weep.
The Oil Drum: World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Oct 2007
"World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in the middle of 2009. According to the IEA, the current peak production of 86.13 mbd occurred on July 2006 and only one year later, June 2007 total liquids production fell to an unexpectedly low 84.50 mbd. A good increase up to 85.10 mbd occurred for September 2007. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing"
The Germans blamed the Jews, the US blame the Turks, this problem is geological, geopolitics has little to do with it and northern Iraq doesn't have much to do with oil in anycase, all lies!
Posted by planning4acrash @ 11:44 PM (622 views) Add Comment
16 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. lvmreader said...
Is the United States about to invade Saudi Arabia?
2. lvmreader said...
@planning4acrash,
Weren't Jews in Germany actually classed as Germans pre-1939?
3. lvmreader said...
The geopolitical stakes of 'Saffron Revolution'
Why Myanmar now?
A relevant question is why the US government has such a keen interest in fostering regime change in Myanmar at this juncture. We can dismiss rather quickly the idea that it has genuine concern for democracy, justice, human rights for the oppressed population there. Iraq and Afghanistan are sufficient testimony to the fact Washington's paean to democacy is propaganda cover for another agenda.
The question is, what would lead to such engagement in such a remote place as Myanmar?
Geopolitical control seems to be the answer - control ultimately of the strategic sea lanes from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. The coastline of Myanmar provides naval access in the proximity of one of the world's most strategic water passages, the Strait of Malacca, the narrow ship passage between Malaysia and Indonesia.
The Pentagon has been trying to militarize the region since September 11, 2001 on the argument of defending against possible terrorist attack. The US has managed to gain an airbase on Banda Aceh, the Sultan Iskandar Muda Air Force Base, on the northernmost tip of Indonesia. The governments of the region, including Myanmar, however, have adamantly refused US efforts to militarize the region. A glance at a map (click here) will confirm the strategic importance of Myanmar.
The Strait of Malacca, linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans, is the shortest sea route between the Persian Gulf and China. It is the key chokepoint in Asia. More than 80% of all China's oil imports are shipped by tankers passing the Malacca Strait.
4. lvmreader said...
Gosh, I wondered how Aceh got so much Western backing for "independence".
Imagine if the Russians sponsored Vermont to secede from the US and then put a military base there.
5. whiteknight said...
Geopolitics has everything to do with it because as mentioned by LVMReader - the most important thing is that I control what is left.
This makes things easier for me.
6. planning4acrash said...
IMV, I'm not quite sure what your point is, there are German Jews, British Jews, etc. The point I was making is that the current high oil price is being blamed on Turkish incursions into Northern Iraq and the German analogy was possibly a bit extreme, apologies for that.
As for the points above, geopolitics are being driven by high oil prices, but a spike will only occur as a result of geopolitics if a situation flares up. There may be issues brewing in Myanamar, but $88/barrel has little to do with that. If we have war in Iran, then you will see $100+/barrel, so while the issues raised above talk of long term threats to oil prices (and the economy and house prices), they do not alone explain the current spike, which is more to do with us being on a production plateau for the past few years whilst demand has risen.
The Middle Eastern map is a good reminder of how Iran is caught in a pincer movement by the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and from US friendship with some of the other surrounding states. Iran is isolated with the added complication of being surrounded by old Soviet Bloc countries to the North. My guess is that today's Russian threats and funding of a reactor are more sabre rattling than anything else (or am I missing something), because a war with America is far more risky for Russia than gazprom loosing contracts in Iran (or is there more at stake?), and if America doesn't strike, Isreal will take out nuclear installations, probably with US encouragement. But clearly, what we are seeing here is a slow march to an odd form of colonialism. (one that puts western corporations in control of resources, our version of democracy). You have invasions, extension of the EU towards Russia and all the way up to Iraq (if Turkey Joins) - I think that we will be talking about Iraq joining the EU not more than a decade after Turkey joins. Is it benign? A new evil empire? How will Russia react? There are a lot of unknowns and a lot of chance for hideous results and multiple oil bull markets that combine with peak oil to make life very different to what we have become accustomed.
7. planning4acrash said...
By the way, why the heck would America invade Saudi Arabia?! You would see a prolonged propoganda war before that could happen. There is no time for Bush to do it before he goes and why would the Democrats do something like that?
8. lvmreader said...
@p4ac, I disagree. Russia (and China) must do everything they can to limit US influence in the Southwest Asia theatre to keep control of their resources. Putin is playing a very aggressive game and he is doing it well.
CasFor - THe Caspian NATO
http://img.rian.ru/images/8413/55/84135502.jpg
Russian strategic bombers to conduct exercises Oct. 16-30
Rice expresses concern over Russia's military build-up
Iran may join Caspian naval force if sea status clarified
Sukhoi jets for Indian skies
Caspian states adopt declaration on repelling aggressors
9. lvmreader said...
@p4ac, re the German comment, all I was pointing out is that prior to 1948, Israel did not exist (had not existed for almost 2,000yrs) and so the Jewish holocaust (one of many through history) in Germany at least, was Germans ethnic cleansing other Germans. It doesn't mitigate the evil of that holocaust, but it was no more evil than the Turks ethnic cleansing Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, or Rwandan Tutsis and Hutus killing one another.
10. lvmreader said...
@p4ac - I am not sure the USA would inavde Saudi, but I am equally not sure that they would not.
If Saudi did some sort of alliance with Iran, this would drive oil to well over $100/barrel if not more, denying it to Uncle Sam. Thus a pre-emptive grab could look attractive.
It has been wargamed in detail since at least 2002 and definitely in the 1970s during the Yom Kippur war.
11. planning4acrash said...
And to think, all the US needs to avert this crisis is to ban STUPID 15miles per gallon Sports Utility Vehicles, along with a few other policy moves that are against their liberal tendencies.
12. mrmickey said...
Why on earth would the US wish to goad the Turks in to invading Iran by declaring them murderers, what is the US motivation for alienating one of it's main allys in the region. Has the US gone totally off the rails or does it want WWIII.
13. lvmreader said...
@P4ac,
The US needs to implement a Demand Responsive Transit Exchange, where transport demand and supply can be matched efficiently and people share vehicles everywhere they go where possible.
e.g. www.texxi.com
14. lvmreader said...
@mrMickey,
"I cannot forecast to you the action of the USA. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is American national interest."
to quote a famous bald man.
15. Tom101 said...
Large scale conflict is extremely likely in the future, inequality being the main driver. I keep telling my gf that the Indians are going to be complaining about the strong cockney accents when they get put through to call centres in London in 5 or so years time. I know this will never happen because the Americans won't let it happen.
Power, s£x and greed three human traits that will never change. Look up any any decent history source on the subject.
So if conflict is almost inevitable should America act whilst she is vastly the strongest? I think so.
16. lvmreader said...
Turkey - Iran Alliance in the offing?
Given the extensive sabotage and vandalism unleashed on Iraq's oil industry following the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, the pipeline is one of the few corridors through which Iraq can access the world market to raise badly-needed cash to rebuild its economy. This makes it a frequent target in a region already rife with violence and warring factions.
The 600-mile pipeline's vulnerability is well known. Few barrels of crude have trickled through it over the past four years. Prior to that, it was idled by international trade embargoes aimed at cutting off the flow of petrodollars Saddam Hussein relied on to fund his regime.