Thursday, Oct 04, 2007
1 in 3 chances of a crash
Reuters: Housing market to cool rapidly into 2008
"The housing market will cool substantially into 2008, with an almost one in three chance of an annual fall in prices at some time over the next 12 months, a Reuters poll shows" there cannot be soft landing, once it starts falling...
Posted by confused76 @ 09:43 PM (539 views) Add Comment
5 Comments
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1. alan said...
Most of the assertions and assumtions in the article have been made on this site over the past 6 weeks. Nice to see them agree with us.
Perhaps they will also agree that buying houses doesn't help the productivity of the UK? - we aren't exactly servicing or making anything as we continually bid our house prices up.
2. paul said...
So, just to summarize, chances of a housing crash:
OECD "5% chance" - January 2007
Halifax "10% chance" - last week
Reuters "33% chance" - this week
starting to see a trend anyone?
You seriously have to wonder about the idiots that make these stats up.
3. planning4acrash said...
Its basically people saying as much as they can get away with without feeling stupid (why didn't they predict it earlier) and without making other people (and themselves) feel too uncomfortable. All words are versed like lullabyes and its softly softly dear, don't worry, go back to bed, it'll all be right as rain in't mornin.
4. European-bear said...
Only 33% chance - wildley optomistic!
5. Yorkshireman said...
I am not a financier, but what is happening runs parallel with a badly run project. I had a mentor many years ago, who told me something that seems to hold true with situations of this nature. It refers to projects, but I hope you will see some parallels.
"In a project, there are 6 stages :
1. Wild enthusiasm
2. Total dissillusionment
3. Absolute panic
4. Search for the guilty
5. Punishment of the innocent
6. Promotion of the non-participants
By my reckoning we are early on stage 2 - what do you think ? I look forward to stage 3, but would like to see how we handle stage 6.
Just give it time.