Tuesday, Oct 16, 2007
Growth forecast for next year has been revised downwards but is still pretty robust
BBC News: Credit crisis to shape IMF forecast
Despite the sub-prime mortgage & credit market problems that blew up in the US in the last couple of months, the IMF is likely to suggest things are still quite rosy. Certainly that is what is suggested in leaks about its new forecast, due out on Wednesday, with some saying it will revise down its estimate of 5.2% for annual economic global growth, but not as dramatically as many feared.They always throw in some comments about the how things might turn out differently to that central forecast. This time, they will say the risks have increased. There are at least four channels through which the US mortgage crisis could do wider economic damage & which the IMF is likely to be watching warily: banks & others sustaining losses, business credit drying up, American consumers & currency markets.
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