Saturday, Oct 27, 2007
Countrywide says that the worst is over now and everything will be alright sometime very soon now
BBC "News": US mortgage firm sees $1.2bn loss
The best quote: "the firm said it was through the worst of the slowdown that has dogged the US housing sector and expected to make a profit in the fourth quarter". Well, in the long term of course, I intend to become a millionaire and win the lottery and marry a supermodel.
Posted by paul @ 02:45 AM (1243 views) Add Comment
28 Comments
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1. paul said...
The property bulls never give up. Even when the downturn is accelerating, they will claim that it's likely to flatten out "anytime soon".
It will be important to keep the media factual (especially the BBC) when the full extent of the UK property crash starts becoming apparent.
2. su said...
"It will be important to keep the media factual (especially the BBC)"
I thought it was only communist or fascist countries that had corrupt government-influenced media! :-)
3. Bigdog said...
Their first loss for 25 years, $3bn credit loss and the shares surge 25%. Incredible
4. Orwell said...
Su,
Read "What Makes Media Mainstream" , by Noam Chomsky.
You will need to go on the Noam Chomsky web site first, but he is probably the foremost academic on the media in the world at the moment... I would like to know your views afterwards...
5. Ill_handle_it said...
Ahh none so blind as those who will not see ! Should we really expect them to say anything else tho ? Knowing the Beeb they will deny that they ever contributed to HPI in the first place.. I really would like to see one of the smug BTL's from Homes Under the Hammer as a part of a riches to rags documentary.. Now that would be good tele !!
6. planning4acrash said...
Yer, but democratic companies have corrupt corporation-influenced media!!
7. Orwell said...
Read this:
The Times, commentary on an article from a US Broker:
"... I'm a mortgage underwriter in the U.S. and you are totally correct this was foreseeable. We in risk management have been asking questions from the start, but sales wanted their bonuses. Upper management really wanted their bonuses so even when we(as risk analysist) knew the loan was going to default we were told to fund the loan. I feel the U.S. has deceived the entire world with our lending practices and should be allow to collapse on our own. I have been in my career for 11 years and was (while writing this) just informed I have been laid off. If you think it is bad now wait for a little while it is only going to get worse. With layoffs happening daily and unemployment (despite the gov. numbers) going up, even the "good" mortgages (such as mine) are going to have problems. Just wait until all the Option ARMS start maturing. I have also read that the same problems effecting residentail mortgage is now said to be in the commerical real estate market as well. comsumer loans as well...."
8. planning4acrash said...
Oops, democratic countries have corrupt corporation-influenced media!!!
9. tyrellcorporation said...
Countrywide are dreaming! Apparently they have been offloading their debt onto the balance sheet of their main backers who are Bank of America. This is bascially to make them look better for the CEOs statement. Bank of America are now mumbling about the prospect of limiting their financial props unless figures improve - but with sales declining over the next 12 months a certainty, the outlook for Countrywide is still bleak - IMHO.
10. shipbuilder said...
These jokers and others like them have been calling the bottom of the market for the last year or so. The press in the UK will follow exactly the same path - constant articles about how there's 'never been a better time to buy' and bargains galore.
11. Ihopeitgoeswithabang said...
If you think thats bad information there was a board up for the Argos Newspaper in Brighton this week that read "Flat Prices set to Soar"
I would imagine the Editor of the paper owns a flat or 2 in Brighton......
12. david20040_0 said...
This is the United States, not here!
The UK is totally different, less land!!!!!
13. enuii said...
Dave, they also still have big industries and mineral resources in the states, what do we have ??????
14. Just Hope. . . said...
dave as each of your blogs go by the more panic stricken they sound .it;s not negitive thought it;s vi all the way
15. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
16. alan said...
If the Credit Suisse profile of sub-prime step up loan payment dates is correct, then the optimism of the Countrywide share communications team is ill founded. The Credit Suisse view is that November and December 2007 is a time when many US (teaser) low rates get hiked up. This will bring on defaults in January/February as folk are (more) overwhelmed by big interest bills.
Credit Suisse have an enormous building opposite where I work in Canary Wharf and their people seem to know what day it is.
17. wiltshire said...
VI propaganda, they're going to talk the HPC (be it on this side of the Atlantic or the other) right to the bottom of the Mariana Trench.
David, how can you constantly bleat about the amount of land in the USA but ignore the lack of land in Japan?
18. Techieman said...
We all love David, "totally different less land" ermmmm right. We have less land so we have more of a bubble - is that how it works? He could be right of course everyone who has predicted a crash has looked very stupid UNLESS you say you dont know exactly WHEN one will occur. There are all sorts of books that Dave could read excepting his BTL for dummies guide, to assist him - but he chooses not to. An example is Pretchers book in the post after this. Prechter is NOT a doomster hes just applying a rule. That rule is that in general society treds a path upwards, however during such times there are deflationary periods associated with asset bubbles bursting look at Charlie Mackay - South sea bubble, Tulipomainia and property in Florida in 1926. Prechter for example stated in his book the Elliott Wave principle that 1987 was a probable low (page 166) - the version i have is 1985!!
Always the same thing is said "we know different" "its different" the fundementals are good etc.And it always ends the same way. Of course David MIGHT be right and we are due a correction, the new highs then a REAL crash (sorry Dave there will NEVER be a REAL crash will there, oh and there isnt and wont even be a correction, every homeowner will make millions and be able to retire in the South of France - silly me) - but an extended Kondratieff wave and the credit crunch suggests otherwise. Still the fact is a market needs people like David - and therefore i welcolme views contrary to the general theme here - its just every once in a while it would be nice if they were supported by erm some support!!!
19. stillthinking said...
There is no comparison with Japan, they don't appear to have any planning regulations. If this were Japan the houses near tube stations in London would have already been knocked down and replaced with apartment blocks. Very pragmatic bunch. However, if there were a comparison like Wiltshire says it would only point to a major 15 year crash anyhoo.
20. su said...
David.
You mention the US and their quantity of land quite a lot. I would have thought you would have emigrated there by now or are you still a student? I'm being serious, by the way, and not making fun of you. There's been a few guys on here that are seriously considering emigration. US housing is really cheap compared with UK and you may be able to afford something now. I've toyed with the thought of emigrating but I got homesick last time I lived abroad and I'm not keen on foreign beasties! :-)
21. david20040_0 said...
Emigration to the US? The US is never impossible to emigrate to because it has such strict laws on emigration in complete contrast to here.
22. david20040_0 said...
If could emigrate to a country where housing is cheaper than here I would be gone.
Average house price in the US is 100k Sterling and falling. Last time it was 100k here was 2001!!!!
23. david20040_0 said...
*replace never with nearly.
24. paul said...
David, you haunt this site like a goldfish in permanent clear-plastic bag transition.
We keep telling you that the house price boom and crash has nothing to do with available land yet you seem to forget it every time you come back.
We keep telling you that prices will not keep rising forever because they never have, and the market is proving us correct every day, yet you seem to forget it every time you come back.
We keep telling you that the Olympics, the new Shell garage being opened at the end of someone's road or the crossrail link will have no effect on house prices, yet you seem to forget it every time you come back.
We keep telling you that housing prices currently have little to do with demand and supply economic fundamentals, yet you seem to forget it every time you come back.
If you're still with me by now, go back to the beginning of my post. And try to keep up before writing something and pressing the "Add Comment" button.
Cheers.
paul
25. su said...
David
I've just looked up this website.
http://www.evanswallace.com/emigrate-usa.htm .
I see what you mean.
I guess your best chance is to get to know a nice American girl! :-)
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27. Bigyin said...
David
You're not trying hard enough to wind people up. You see we've all got money in the bank and well paid jobs unlike yourself. Now get out there and buy some BTLs.
28. planning4acrash said...
Most people don't think, they seek consensus. That's what a person would exploit if they wanted to support a VI view on a blog. Somebody taking such an approach would not appear to be learning from discussion because they would have to repeat standard vested interest viewpoints to maintain the sense of a lack of consensus. As soon as they began discussing the complex issues brought up here their argument would begin to fall down.