Saturday, Oct 27, 2007
Conquer the Crash
Book: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression
This link was posted by blogger: M2 this week.
I found chapters 3 and 4 were great to understand Elliott waves from a beginners point of view.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:24 AM (739 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Page 33 of the book shows a stocks diagram for the last 300 years - Grand super-cycle bear market and bull market.
Using Elliott wave theory it shows that we are in wave 5 (final wave) of this up leg in stocks.
The 2 downlegs are wave 2 and 4 which correspond to the depressions of 1835-1842 and 1929-1933.
The author is saying the uplegs of wave 1, 3 and 5 have got increasingly bigger.
I would normally take this graph with an oversized ladle of salt but then I discovered something.
This graph corresponds very well with the debt graph I have
http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/downloads/NonPublicDeptPerGDP.doc
See how the debt peaks match up with the depressions of 1835-1842 and 1929-1933.
What we are about to go into is the biggest crash for nearly 300 years (since 1730) and maybe even bigger.
Ambrose from The Telegraph said we may have repeated the mistakes of the 1920s but on a world wide scale.
This time the bubble is in every asset class and not just stocks.
Any comments would be grateful.
2. Afrobaggie said...
If the bubble is in every asset class, that sounds a dire warning for any investment. I suppose then gold is the only alternative. However it sounds more like that the great war machine will be awakened to stave off threats of unrest and reform a sense of national pride. Hence the US and Russian sabre rattling that is currently happening over the proposed bases in Poland; the US sanctions against Iran while not forgetting the troubles in Pakistan.
All I want is that house prices drop to reasonable level so that I can afford to buy a roof over my head. Is that too much to ask?
3. Refusetobuy said...
There doesn't seem to be any rigorous definition of what defines a 'wave'. Where does one start and the other end. The figure 1-2 on page 7 has the waves drawn in. The points seem arbitrary. I can add at least 4 more 'waves' onto that graph.
As a mathematician, the 'wave' model hasn't been demonstrated to my satisfaction, therefore I'm reluctant to believe any conclusions drawn from that model. (Although there may be better explanation of the 'wave' model in the pages 26-31 that aren't in the summary.)
That said, the actual text seems to be sensible. Ignoring all the wave stuff, it looks like good advice about what to do in a depression.
4. alan said...
There are some useful ideas in the book and it's written in a way so as to be easily understood.
Amazon have some secondhand at £2.10p + postage for those saving for reduced price house offers - coming soon.
5. whiteknight said...
Method 1: Write a book called "Conquer the Crash - You can prosper and survive in a deflationary recession" and sell it to people.
6. Azazel said...
Perhaps someone would be kind enough to breifly explain what this book suggests should be done to survive and prosper in the coming crash. Thanks!!