Friday, Oct 05, 2007
Commercial property slides
FT.com: Commercial property slides
Under pressure. First negative total returns for around 15 years apparently.
Posted by whiteknight @ 10:55 PM (706 views) Add Comment
16 Comments
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1. planning4acrash said...
Wasn't 15 yrs ago around about 1992 when prices last fell off a cliff?!
2. uncle chris said...
Nah! Can't be right. Property prices only go up .... remember .... Krusty said so, so it must be true.
You know with all the bad news stories going around, and various VIs desperately spinning like a floundering kipper (you know what I mean), I can't help feeling like a kiddy in a sweetie shop. That said, I hope that only the greedy property speculators and BTL types go belly up and not hard working families, who were taken in by Gordon's Great British property con and ovserstretched themselves a little too much.
Suppose I must be one of those doom-mongers (aka realists) or vultures (aka wanting to pay a sensible price) they are talking about.
3. whiteknight said...
Yes
To me it is not to be a doom-monger to want to ensure we are at a point where people are working hard and smart (productively) in return for their money.
This is not some kind of masochistic or peverse aim (as i have heard it stated) but a recognition of the severe "competition" for resources we are about to enter. We must innovatively reduce our utilisation of such resources aswell.
This is not a zero sum game for the UK and i fear we have spent the last decade ensuring we are as lazy, fat and flabby , and feel as entitled without justification as we have ever been.
It is not doom-mongering to accept realities and put in the ground work. Indeed why does such a scenario a "doom" scenario atall? Why is the person who looks at their hand and says "This is f***ed". We need to do this and this and this to succeed not infact more of a sensible optimist than the person who just looks at the same hand and says "no .. its OK really. We can just carry on." Why is that?
Sometimes you get the feeling that this country just wants to turn up and have a go at the last minute, put a lot of heart into it (at the last minute) , put a lot of effort into it (at the last minute). What happpened to putting in tedious "invisible" groundwork and simply getting into a position where you are the best? Thats the most reliable way to win.
I have never and will never understand why people think they can buy a property and make these astronomical gains year on year (which arent infact gains at all for a whole host of reasons discussed on this forum in the past). THAT is what defies all logic. How can it be? Just how can it be? People say "nothing is for free" and then accept that. How is that? Someone can explain it to me some time.
Anyway, thats enough of that.
4. confused76 said...
"Net inflows into retail property funds in the first quarter were more than £900m, up from under £200m in the second quarter of 2005, according to the Association of Real Estate Funds."
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5. taffee said...
net inflows up....prices still fell.....what happens when net inflows disappear.
6. planning4acrash said...
"Doom monger" is a tabloid cliche like "tree hugger" which refers to a counter VI point of view without having to analyse it (a cliche like this is a get out of jail card for a VI). Most don't even realised that they are conditioned to not think about a counter argument by these types of cliche's partly because they don't want to think and smugly confident that their recognition of the consensus view of a cliche amounts to true knowledge.
You can imagine the argument in a school playground. Charlie: "My goodness, have you seen whats happening to interest rates? My Dad say's he's making no money from his buy to lets and he'll have to sell, I'm worried about my university fund and Dad reckon the house market is falling of a cliff" Dave: "Oh shut up you doom monger" Charlie: "Really? I'm a doom monger? Oh damn, not one of them?! I'll stop talking now then, gosh I feel stupid now!"
The trick with this isn't to actually counter an argument, this would be counter productive, the objective of the cliche is to raise doubt in the minds of those who have the opposite view and to sow the seeds of undoubt in those who hold the VI view.
7. magnifico said...
A very interesting point P4C.
I tried to think to what cliche is used in the opposite direction ( ie to define unlimited greed for whatever you can grab now, no matter what the long term consequences on society might be).
I can't think of one... There is "Fat Cats" but that only applies to the multi-million benefits/pay-offs category.
Actually ther was one we used to use in my student years: Fascist, Nietzsche's super-man, but that raises many an eyebrows at civilised dinner-parties, whilst tree-hugger, doom monger, flaming hippi are welcomed as jolly good fun.
8. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
whiteknight, I agree - lots of heart, no real planning, strategy or work. I have found that invisible groundwork is not recognised in this country. Lots of press-release politics and plenty of celebration when something highly visible (to the press) happens, but no focus on groundwork.
Perhaps it's because kids get "A"s for effort rather than results, which involves looking like you mean it when someone is watching and gives no recognition of the often hard, long and lonely road that is needed to deliver the final flourish.
9. su said...
Magnifico. You've raised a really interesting point.
Why are the names only pointing in one direction?
Could it be that the media, who often invent the names, only feel safe ridiculing the minorities? After all, if they started ridiculing the majority, I would imagine their popularity and therefore their sales would go down!
10. David Smith's Sub Prime. . . said...
Read Noam Chomsky on the press Su.... He wrote a piece on it and I think a book. Look at his web site.
11. planning4acrash said...
Su, the press often rote learn press releases from vested interests and some of the broadsheets are more tabloid than they like to admit. Remember that the FT is owned by the same Australian who owns the Sun newspaper!
12. planning4acrash said...
Magnifico, a note about cliche's, they mean nothing and those who use them claim that they mean everything. Fascism is not a cliche, it is a verifiable concept that can be measured and debated, Fat Cat is a semi-cliche because it assumes that high wages for bosses are immoral, but stops being a cliche when used to decribe specific cases of greed. Words like doom monger and tree hugger actually have little or no meaning and are childish insults up there with words like "idiot" and "stupid", which can be appropriate for dismissing obvious errors but, in this case, obscure and complex issues put forward by bear's have been dismissed as being simplistic and wrong, which we all know to not be the case. The bulls will be right so long as they convince enough people that their's is the rational argument. The press will be slating bulls in the same fasion soon enough, probably using words like greed, and those cliche's will hold true until the market turns once again into a bull market. The specific cliche's fasionable to the mainstream press alter over time, but the media's reliance on cliche is a constant that extends to the use of images in advertising and the words from politicians. The trick is to see cliche' for what they are, to think independently and avoid being conditioned with the other sheeple (oops, I just used a bull cliche then (sheeple), we have lots of em!!), avoid "sheepishly" changing your mind when faced with a barage of cliche'd insults about your point of view and try to stay rational.
13. su said...
P4ac. That's very perceptive!
14. inbreda said...
"Magnifico. You've raised a really interesting point.
Why are the names only pointing in one direction?"
They are not pointing in one direction. I can think of at least one word that properly encapsulates how insultingly lazy and greedy and uneducated some of these peolpe are. When you want to insult someone for expecting the world to pay their way whilst doing little to justify it, you call them e****e a****s.
or some times f*****g estate agents if you really want to be rude.
15. su said...
inbreda.
Why lower ourselves to their level. If we believe that we know the truth, we don't need to call anyone names. As P4ac pointed out, such name-calling or cliches are designed to win an argument by ridicule, because the name-caller has no argument.
16. happyrenter said...
some stock market terms seem to fit well
speculator - someone who bets prices will rise
ramper - someone who tries to make prices rise by spin, SPAM and bluster, even when logic says they shouldn't rise
and merchant banker - someone who makes money whether they rise or fall (might be the rhyming slang definition, so closest to EAs?)
on a similar note of VI descriptions, when did the teenie-weeniest fraction of a rise in interest rates become a 'hike' ?