Telegraph: Hedge funds bet on fall in house prices

Hedge funds are gambling on a fall in Britain's housing market with aggressive short selling of shares in housebuilders, developers and landlords. Big bets have been placed on shares in Persimmon, Britain's biggest housebuilder, taking a dive. Speculators are also predicting that Grainger, the country's biggest quoted investor in residential property, will see its share price drop.

BBC news: Debt culture driving downturn

Valid comment from someone with financial credentials...

FT.com: Call for governor of Bank to serve one term

It does not recognise a couple of key issues..

BBC News: Petrol pump price could pass £1

"Petrol prices could surge to near record highs from next week after the government's 2p rise in fuel duty is introduced from midnight on Sunday".

This Is Money: Northern Rock facing afterlife as 'zombie'

The stricken mortgage lender could be force to close to new business as profits face being wiped out by interest payments to the Bank of England...

The Daily Reckoning: UK Property: Buy-To-Let Speculator Threatens To Bring Down Price Structure

An American take on the UK house price bubble. Nice bearish article to pleasantly round off the weekend.

Telegraph: Has Gordon Brown's 'economic miracle' come to an end?

One of the Best Comments I have seen for a while on a newspaper site, the first one nicely sums up our Economic Mirage.

moneyweb: How economy could survive oil at $100 a barrel

"The world economy has managed, with some indigestion (apparently, haven't prices yet to fully feed through?), to swallow the rise of oil prices past $80 a barrel. How well could it survive $100 a barrel? The answer is quite well -- so long as several conditions still hold true."

LandRegistry: August house prices

Everybody seem to be in the business of painting a rosier picture of this moribund housing market. The press and the Land Registry itself have tried to redress an appalling 0.2% monthly price increase in August (after the 0.1% of July!!) by saying "but London prices rise like rockets". But is it actually true or is it a cheat? See the report for yourself. How is in the world possible that Greater London grows at 1.5% monthly when all but 2 boroughs (Southwark and Lambeth... not the poshest, eh!) are either declining or growing well below the average????

The Oil Drum: Europe, Analysis and Discussion of the European Energy Gap and Peak Oi.: A Note From our Milkman

Doortstep Price Increase as of 30th September 2007 Pint Glass - will increase by 4 pence per pint 500 ml carton - will increase by 4 pence per 500 mls

The Independent: Business View: The Bank should hold its fire on the rate cuts

"Looks like house prices heading for soft landing". S&P predict average mortgage repayment to rise by 26% as fixed price deals expire into 2008. Squaring the circle with a ruler and compass seems elementary now.

Mail: Does anyone live in the buy-to-let flats?

"Manchester is the most extreme example of a decade of massive residential city-centre development. Others include Leeds, Newcastle, Nottingham, Swindon, Basingstoke, Southampton and Bristol. Now it is feared that some of the more grandiose schemes - fuelled by borrowers whose access to cheap money has vanished in the wake of the credit crisis - could stand for years as empty symbols of property obsession and greed." But I thougth... immigration, divorces, students, single households... where is David Smith? Where is Fionnuaualaa Nationwide?

Times: Easy money from property?

Phil: "There’s blood on the streets of Britain’s housing market. Five successive interest-rate rises have gouged deep wounds, but the coup de grâce could be yet to come – an estimated 2m people on fixed-rate mortgages will have to take out new loans at higher rates within the next 12 months, sending their monthly payments soaring and reducing their ability to trade up" ehmm... how about repossessions?

CNN: Netbank shut down

This is not getting the attention it deserves but its the first US bank to fail in over 10 years - due to mortgage failures etc. Only a tiddler by US standards but.........

Tgraph: Hedge funds bet on fall in house prices

"Hedge funds are gambling on a fall in Britain's housing market with aggressive short selling of shares in housebuilders, developers and landlords"... Never mind these funds have already made a mint on price drops of all of the above since the beginning of 2007

The Times: Business Article

I don't understand this, there is no sub prime problem and the housing 'market' will not collapse...

baltimoresun.com: Hidden drop in house prices

Samantha Stoely bought her house in Canton for al lot less than the seller had originally hoped to get, but the good deal didn't end with the $243,000 price. They covered most of her closing costs too - a $10,000 incentive. In effect, the sellers recieved $233,000. But that's not what got recorded in the home sales statistics.

Firstrung: Rising UK house prices accounts for bulk of individual wealth

Data published by Halifax financial services shows that household wealth has more than doubled during the past 10 years on the back of soaring house prices...Britons collectively had assets worth £6.336 trillion at the end of last year, after outstanding debt was taken into account, up from £2.795 trillion at the end of 1996, according to Halifax Financial Services. The group said the total value of people's assets rose by £4.343 billion during the past decade, massively outstripping the £802 billion rise in debt during the same period. A large part of the gain in household wealth was driven by booming house prices, with rises in the value of property accounting for more than half of the gain.

Firstrung: London house prices increase by 1.5% in August - Land Registry

For the fifth month in a row, the rate of increase for London house prices remains over six per cent per annum greater than that of England and Wales as a whole. The August data shows the current rate of increase for London house prices has increased to over seven per cent per annum greater than that of England and Wales. With an annual price change of 16.7 per cent, London therefore leads the rest of the country in terms of house price growth by a significant margin. London's average house price for August 2007 stands at £349,838 whereas the average price for England and Wales is £182,914.

FT: Homeowners face payment shock

lenders have struggled to securitise mortgage assets into the capital markets, will lead to borrowers paying more each month. This could trigger growing numbers of home repossessions as borrowers struggle to repay loans. S&P estimates that those who are able to refinance to another deal will face an average increase of 26 per cent, or £167, in their monthly payments. It estimates that those borrowers who cannot get another deal and so have to move to standard variable rate could face a monthly increase in payments of £415. “one of the largest payment shocks witnessed since the 1990s”... say no more!

London Stock Exchange: 'Stagnation' in Northern Ireland property market

Northern Ireland's property market is predicted to stagnate over the coming months as house prices begin to level out.

Independent Newspaper: Wealth Check: 'We want to save for our kids and for retirement'

This couple have paid off their mortgage and earn £80K pa between them.
The Indie's expert panel seem completely at a loss as to giving them any advice.
Maybe financial "experts" have forgotten how to serve prudent customers ?
Re: property, "Sofat says that if they sink all they have into buying another property, they are exposed to that one asset. "

Credit Suisse: Mortgage Liquidity du Jour:

An old report, but paints an incredible picture of the American housing market (from the earlier blog link).

Incito: "Market beating capital growth"

... just what is the FSA waiting for to regulate this big f@ck-up! Builders discount are plain fraud... as even advertised on the web! But the FSA did not know...

The Telegraph: The property time bomb

Steep mortgage increases and falling house prices point to a market teetering on chaos. Edmund Conway plots a course to safety When I predicted at the end of 2006 that the housing market would take a turn for the worse in the second half of 2007, I didn't even begin to anticipate the extent of the twists and turns the property world - and the rest of the economy - would take in the following months.

dailykos.com: Mortgage Market Problems Are Just Beginning

An oldish blog entry, shows an interesting graph of mortgage resets due in the US, it would be great to see similar stats for the UK in this format, but I would think that we are somewhere close to this in anycase and about 1yr behind. But its the trend rather than the precision that matter. Remember that each wave of re-sets and defaults further harms the balance sheets of investors who bought toxic mortgage backed securities.

Times: Mortgages for millionaires...

These days just any dog can write for the Times. I am still missing the point(s) of this article, if any in the twisted minds of the writers. Maybe best summarized by the statement “In theory, where the loan is under £1.5 billion you can borrow around 90 per cent of the value of the property”

FT Money Makeover: Don’t put all your apples in one basket

He actually says they should should trade down to secure their finances. How dumb can you be??? Tee Hee!!! :)

Times Online: British banks caution Chancellor over price of protection scheme

With only £4.4 million set aside by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme to pay back bank customers and banks not contributing to that scheme, banks are concerned about the cost to them of a new scheme.

FT: Second homes face price fall

"The price of second homes in the Mediterranean and eastern Europe could fall as a result of the credit crisis, a leading property expert has warned. Michael Ball, a professor of property at Reading ­University, England, and an adviser to the UK government, said holiday homes in many parts of Europe were exposed to a correction."

Mail: 10,000 council houses given to immigrants in a year

Immigrants were given the keys to 10,000 council houses last year. The Government figures reveal the pressures which immigration is putting on housing and public services. Foreign nationals are legally entitled to social housing. Last year only 25,596 new social housing homes were built. Just a minute isn't 10,000 divided by 25,000 roughly 40%.!!!!!!!!!

BBC "News": UK Personal 'wealth' at £6 trillion

If you ever wanted an article that exposes just how much of a Labour Party Lapdog the BBC has become since the Hutton Enquiry, then here's your proof. They even have the gall to defend the government's bumper IHT tax-grab which was the whole point of accelerating house prices in the first place. And where have those hardworking, honest and impartial BBC editors obtained this gem? None other than one of the UK's biggest private mortgage lenders who ... heaven forbid ... would never be interested in painting over the emerging cracks in the housing market!

Guardian: House prices tumble - and ontinue to spiral upwards

Trends: There are so many local fluctuation and inconsistancies that you can now pick the index that will 'prove' your argument.

Mail: Mortgage rates soar as credit crunch bites

"Banks which specialise in providing home loans to those with a poor credit history, the self- employed and first time buyers who want to self-certify their income have made dramatic changes recently. While some have dropped these mortgages altogether, others have raised their standard variable rate by as much as 2.5%." Even a dramatic drop in the BoE base rate cannot help the market at this point!

FT.com: ING Direct steps in as US bank collapses

ING Direct, a subsidiary of the Dutch financial group, is to take over the customers and insured deposits of NetBank, an online lender with $2.5bn (£1.2bn) in assets that was shut down on Friday by the US government following losses on subprime mortgages and other loans. The closure marks the largest US bank failure since the end of the savings and loan crisis in the early 1990s.

BBC: UK personal wealth at £6 trillion

Halifax point out that due to the increase in house prices people are now richer than they have ever been. Yep, but what happens when the prices go down? Oh negative equity! If we want to be rich we need to learn to diversify i.e. some gold, cash, shares, property etc.

msnbc: Oil prices rally over $83 before falling back

Prices rose as high as $83.76 early in the day.

Reuters: ANALYSIS-Record coal prices hammer power generators

Oil and coal, on the up. "Coal fuels about 40 pct of global power generation. Physical coal prices for delivery into Europe have risen by over 50 percent this year."

Guardian: Northern Rock crisis hits consumer confidence

Quote:
"The monthly snapshot of consumer confidence from the research group Gfk found that consumer confidence weakened in September and grew markedly worse after the Northern Rock crisis"
But the Times says "A special Populus survey for The Times gives Labour a double-digit lead".
So the public feels bad about the mess Crash Gordon has made but will still clamor to vote him back in.
There's nowt so queer as folk as they say.

www.LandlordExpert.co.uk: UK House price crash: When will the press stop crying wolf

The title says it all so will simply leave you all to make up your own mind!

FairInvestment: Sub-prime fiasco impacts on buy-to-let mortgage segment

According to mortgage advisors at Moneyfacts.co.uk, the credit crunch is now starting to take its toll on the buy-to-let market. “While the prime residential sector has so far been largely unaffected by the sub-prime crisis, the buy-to-let sector is beginning to show signs reminiscent of the sub-prime market over the last few weeks with tightening credit criteria, the withdrawal of products and rising fees.” In one extreme case a lender has withdrawn all mortgage products, while several others have made all tracker rate mortgages off limits. Rental cover requirement has increased by between five and ten per cent, and arrangement fees have increased substantially.

Guardian: Northern Rock refuses to tighten lending rules

The desperate rock continues to offer sub-prime loans in a desperate bid to keep mortgage business coming in yet is struggling to win new mortgage business.

Guardian: Poorest could see mortgage payments shoot up 60%

Don't you just love that name - Standard & Poor's?

BBC: Bubble trouble in housing market

Looking at every investment mania, from the South Sea bubble of the 18th Century to the stock market boom of the 1920s or the dotcom madness of more recent years, you find dubious deals and misleading numbers which helped persuade borrowers and investors to invest more than they should

Residential Landlord: Mixed predictions over future of housing market

When the trade press starts singing this tune, then u know the end is nigh! “The government needs to bring in measures immediately to prevent banks from passing the increased cost of borrowing onto the already overstretched customer. This is irresponsible lending and customers should not be penalised for mistakes that banks make. We believe that that the property industry has been deliberately hiding the truth from homeowners about the state of the market to protect their own interests. The property crash has already begun."

Guardian: Brown advisor predicts 'bubble will burst'

Commentators believe prices began to slow at the end of last month and probably halted after the Northern Rock crisis. Greenspan: "A lot of the two-year fixes are beginning to unwind, and the teaser rates are going. It's going to turn, it's got to turn," He also warned that Britain was more vulnerable to the effects of the credit crunch than the US because it had a higher level of adjustable-rate mortgages.

Forbes: Investor Seeks Stake In Northern Rock

Spanish entrepreneur Jose Maria Ruiz-Mateos is reported to be keen to buy a 10% stake in ailing NR. A 10% stake would give him decision-making clout as an investor. He clearly thinks NR is a good investment. Did I mention that he has a criminal record, likes to dress up as Superman, is a member of Opus Dei and has 13 children?? Apparently he's viewed as somewhat of a 'comic figure' in Spain. Yes, that's right only the real lunatics want to buy into this bank now.

Guardian: Reducing home ownership cuts unemployment

No wonder matey boy Blanchflower is doing everything he can to prop up the house prices afterall what a terrible thing it would be if the masses instead of a few BTLers owned property!!!

LandRegistry: August prices

Housing boom is definitely over, despite the vomiting positive spin in the press. Kensington & Chelsea did not see any price gain in August (+0.1%) followed by 3 London boroughs with NEGATIVE gains. Very low gains in the over-btl-developed Tower Hamlets. Growth comes from the boroughs where the BTLs are flocking (Camden, Lambeth, etc). But sales volumes are a wopping 15% down (-17% in London!) vs last year. And sales in the over £2m range are dropping!! YEAH!!

FT.com: Tate & Lyle plunges on fresh profits alert

.. or is it that raw material or commodity inflation is first hammering the profit margins and will then have to be passed onwards (unless companies like to do these things as a charitable service.. some shareholders must be thinking it is at the moment).

petrolprices.com: We can't take another 2p now!

I just hope that the election is called in March next year, when all these seeds will "bear " fruit. Any form of snap election will to this government's advantage. You can't hide GBH, your chickens are now comming home to roost. More Tax is about the last thing we need, and Petrol (alcohol, etc) Tax is just adding more Tax to be Taxed again by VAT, etc. I vote for a completely new tax system, and abolish Income Tax completely, just use VAT at 150% on everything.

MoneyWeek: Why it’s a bad time to be an estate agent

The US arm of estate agents Foxtons is on the verge of Chapter 11 bankruptcy. And things are looking little better over here, despite claims that 'strong fundamentals' will avert a house price crash.

FT: Payment shock for UK borrowers

80,000 UK sub-prime mortgage holders face up to 60% rise in re-payments !!

BBC "News": Greenspan: 'We saw credit risks'

In years to come, economists will claim that during the boom years, the economic, social and political consequences of unsustainably low interest rates could never have been foreseen, and the subsequent credit crunch (after all every single credit expansion-led boom in history has ended in financial catastrophe) could never have been predicted. This of course, will be a lie ...

FT: Northern Rock in crisis

New revelations that Northern Rock has been dipping in the cookie jar again to the tune of £5bn, and what it means for the beleaguered lender. As it becomes clear that they are now borrowing the equivalent of more than a third of their own retail deposits, questions are being raised everywhere (apart from at the Bank of England it seems) about the viability of their business model.

BBC Radio 4 - Today: Alan Greenspan interview

He's promoting his book but is still well worth listening to. Al's views on the inherent instabilities in market economies, the housing market and Gordon Brown. You'll need RealPlayer to hear it.

Wall Street Journal: Crop prices to gain for next 10 Years

Inflation

Mail: House price cracks are showing

Don't seize upon the surprise rise in September house prices as proof that the consumer has shrugged off the credit crisis. The 0.7% jump from August reported by Nationwide may have confounded forecasts for a 0.4% fall, but few are in doubt that a slowdown is coming.

smh.com.au: NSW is about to enter its most prolonged housing construction downturn since the Great Depression.

The slump does not augur well for other building materials companies, particularly Boral, which generates most of its Australian revenues in NSW. Boral also faces the problem of enduring the sharp housing slump in the US, where it is the largest brickmaker. Boral reported an 18 per cent slump in full-year profits last month."This downturn hasn't been the deepest or steepest downturn but it certainly is the longest downturn in the history of Australia since the end of World War II,"

David Stanley Redfern: Overseas Property Specialist Continues To Grow Destination Offers

Overseas property specialist, David Stanley Redfern Ltd. continues a year of fantastic growth with the addition of several exciting new destinations to its property offerings. The must-visit resource for anyone contemplating making a property purchase broad, the Nottingham-based company now offers property in hot spots as far afield as Barbados, the Czech Republic, Finland and Montenegro

Financial Week: End of the Hunt for Foxtons

Several calls to company headquarters and branch offices were not returned today, and the recording this morning said to call back during business hours. Foxtons, which had great success in London, opened in the U.S. in March of 2000. It tried to differentiate itself from competitors by undercutting the industry’s 6% commission standard by paying its agents salaries and charging customers only a 2% commission.

BBC News: Weak dollar holds oil prices firm

Oil prices broke the $83-a-barrel mark in Asian trade on Friday and approached their record level, as a weak dollar and supply fears boosted buying.

MSN Money: Do we need a recession?

I was at a conference with people from various business sectors the other week, and the talk somehow got round to graduate trainees and work experience staff. Most of those around the table had horror stories about how demanding the new generation was. One person spoke of how law firms were so desperate to recruit the top graduates that they were taking them out on all-expenses paid nights out - and even then, the little ingrates demanded to know where the free champagne was.

Guardian: Housing signals point to cooling market

Signs emerged yesterday that the housing market was starting to feel the effects of five interest rate rises in a year and a global credit crunch. Figures showing tighter conditions for buy-to-let investors, lower mortgage approvals and an underlying slowdown in house price growth for August all pointed to an easing in the market

The Telegraph: US housing market in freefall dive

Sales of new homes in the US plunged in August at the fastest rate since modern records began, prompting fears the economy is sliding into a full-blown recession.

Financial Times: Northern Rock debt to Bank now £8bn

Here you go guys, should have posted this one first as it has better analysis with it, enjoy.

Reuters: Northern Rock seen to borrow 8 bln pounds

It would appear still that no-one but the BOE is dumb enough to lend NR money. Further proof they are likely to be sold off to a carpet bagger. In my opinion, they are effectively in government adminstration but for obvious reasons that's not what they are calling it.

telegraph.co.uk: the US investment bank said it was no longer sure that Asia and Europe would be able to pick up the growth baton as America stumbled. It fears that turmoil is spreading beyond the debt markets to the factory floor

“We have good reasons to ask these funds to declare what kind of assets they want to invest in, what criteria they apply to decide their investments, and what the distribution of their investments is,” Joaquín Almunia, the EU’s commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, said in an interview. “If they don’t agree to these criteria, we can find good reasons to react in some cases, where these funds try to invest in some strategic sector or try to move towards some specific industries,” Mr Almunia said.

theaustralian.news.com.au: Basis Capital fund down by 50pc

In August, Basis Capital sought bankruptcy protection in the US for its Basis Yield Fund after massive losses caused by the flow-on effects of the US sub-prime mortgage meltdown.

BBC: Many pension schemes 'inadequate'

So you thought paying 15% of your salary would buy you a decent pension when your retire - think again as you currently need to put away 25% to get a 50% of salary pension after 40 years or so. Amazingly most workers total contributions currently average a measly 10.4% and defined contribution schemes, in 2006, had contribution rates of just 8.9% of salaries. So where are you going to put your money, a mortgage or a pension. Hmmmm this country is broke.

BBC: UK 'may need to cut rates' - OECD

The UK may need to cut interest rates to boost its economy, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) has warned.

Bloomberg: Gold, Silver Rally as Dollar Falls to All-Time Low Against Euro

Gold is trading close to the highest in 27 years, heading for a seventh straight annual gain, after the dollar slumped against Euro and major currencies ... crude oil surged to a record....

Fool: House Prices Look Surprisingly Strong

Today's house price figures from Nationwide Building Society are surprisingly positive. House prices rose 0.7% in September compared to a 0.6% gain in August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had only expected a 0.3% rise for this month.

thisismoney.co.uk: House prices shrug off the credit crunch

House prices are rising at the fastest pace in three months as the market shrugs off the global credit crunch and higher interest rates. Thank goodness...all's good in the world...phew...let the good times roll !!!

Mike Morgan Real Estate: Real Estate Housing Outlook for Florida week of Sep 23 2007

Real Estate Agen's in Florida not quite rosy outlook "And it really doesn’t matter what the Fed does at this point, because we are waist deep in doodoo. The only way out is through the doodoo, and it is going to get deeper and stinkier." "If you believe anyone telling you prices are stabilizing, or even showing signs of stabilizing, you are either on drugs or you have the IQ of a green mango. Prices are now in total free fall, with buyers and competing builders in complete control. "

MoneyFacts: Credit crunch biting buy-to-let

“The outlook may not be all doom and gloom for the buy-to-let landlord, although borrowing costs are rising, yields are beginning to fall and the potential to gain from capital appreciation is declining. If the residential mortgage market sees increasing arrears, repossessions and first-time buyers continuing to be priced out of the market, the demand for rented properties will undoubtedly increase.” ... sorry, why it is not ALL doom and gloom?

Bloomberg: Foxtons New Jersey Shuts Business, Blaming U.S. Housing Slump

Foxtons NJ blamed the slowing U.S. housing market and laid off 350 of 380 employees.

Bloomberg: U.S. New-Home Sales Drop, Prices Fall Most Since 1970

The phrase night follows day springs to mind

Reuters: Turmoil stokes savings rates, dents confidence

Savers are continuing to reap the rewards of the squeeze that has sent the cost of money shooting up without the Bank of England (BoE) lifting a finger, as institutions turn to savers to boost their cash-flow.

Bloomberg: Banks Borrow 3.9 Billion Euros at ECB's Penalty Rate

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank lent the most money at its penalty rate in almost three years, suggesting at least one bank is still being shut out of credit markets. The ECB loaned 3.9 billion euros ($5.5 billion) at its marginal rate of 5 percent yesterday, the most since October 2004, the Frankfurt-based central bank said in a daily borrowing-requirement statement today. It didn't provide details of which bank or banks asked for the money.

SeekingAlpha: Think Housing's Bad? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

Cracking 3-paragrahs and graphs showing what the market thinks of housing: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange offers futures contracts on the US housing market which track the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices that provide median home sale price data for 20 cities across the country. CME offers futures contracts [...] that expire over various months from November 2007 through November 2011.

Sunday Herald: ICELAND FACES MELTDOWN DEALMAKING: BOOM AND BUST DEALMAKING: BOOM

There is too much debt, too much lending. He says: "The maturing debt in two years is 130-per cent of GDP. For Britain it can't go above 40-per cent of GDP. Those debt levels are remarkable, you won't find them anywhere else. The effect is that borrowing is running down net savings and running a very large current account deficit, which is running at 10-per cent of GDP. In the UK it's 6-per cent." Through all the predictions of doom and gloom, the Icelandic Financial News's Arnason says that there is no panic on the streets. "There are not massive queues outside the banks with people looking to get their cash out, " he says. "The banks are bumping up the interest rates which means that now people are not remortgaging the

SFGate.com: Real estate blogger taps into bursting market bubble

If you get into difficult conversations at dinner parties, are the target of nervous housing bulls' frustrations or have come to expect people rolling their condescending eyes in your direction at the merest mention of the housing market, here's an article on the founder of Patrick.net, a US partner-in-spirit to this blog. It makes good reading - it's nice to hear that someone else with their head crewed on got the same "doom-monger" ridiculing treatment as has been heaped on HPCers this side of the pond. The important difference? He's now quietly put up the "I told you so" flag. Well worth a read when VIs here are still stubbornly refusing to admit the obvious truth.

dailymail.co.uk: Four asylum seekers hitch a ride to Britain in Blair's new bullet-proof BMW

Police are investigating how four asylum seekers smuggled their way into Britain by hiding in the back of a lorry carrying Tony Blair's new bullet-proof car

dailymail.co.uk: The number of people migrating to the UK will increase by 45,000 a year, according to new official figures published today.

The number of people migrating to the UK will increase by 45,000 a year, according to new official figures published today. Experts at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said their estimates had increased to 190,000 a year compared with 145,000 in calculations issued two years ago

Safe Haven: The Greater Depression

Looking for a country as a safe haven in the next depression? This guys puts Argentina above New Zealand

IMF.org: The Nordic Banking Crisis from an International Perspective

Caused by

1. Bad banking
2. Inadequate market discipline
3. Weak regulatory and supervisory frameworks
4. Inadequate macro policies and adverse macroeconomic developments

The above causes can create contagion, as bank or payment system weaknesses destroy credibility of all banks, and lead to creditor and depositor runs regardless of the soundness of individual banks. Contagion is often triggered by some market, policy or political shock that becomes the "wakeup call" for dealing with problems so far ignored, causing dramatic shifts in expectations and a systemic bank run, which often is accompanied by a run on the currency. The latter holds particularly with increasing capital flows if the country is borrowing heavily abroad.

FT.com: OECD warns UK outlook more ‘uncertain’

The Bank of England should be poised to cut interest rates because of the risk of lower economic growth and a housing slowdown in the wake of recent financial market turmoil, the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development said in a report on Thursday. It said lower growth and reduced profitability in London’s financial district due to the credit squeeze, were likely to lower the government’s tax take and lead to a rise in the budget deficit, which it said was “still high by international comparison.”

FT webcast: Housing holds up despite credit turmoil

In the past month the picture WAS less gloomy that we have recently seen in the press, true... but going forward... overstretched borrowers will not be able to borrow, all the forward looking surveys are negative, and 10000 people in the city may lose their jobs... the journalist had a gloomy look as well. But she said "if you have 25% for your deposit, the lending conditions are still good". Yes but who wants to throw good money after bad business and buy a "falling knife"?

ft.com: ECB emergency fund tapped for €3.9bn

ECB emergency fund tapped for €3.9bn The European Central Bank’s emergency lending fund, which attracts a penal interest rate, was tapped on Wednesday for €3.9bn – the largest sum since October 2004, the Frankfurt-institution has revealed. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/100cb3e4-6cdd-11dc-ab19-0000779fd2ac.html

Land reg: Land reg figures Sept 07

MOM showing 0.2 % increase. Half the regions showing -ve for the month

MoneyWeek: How the US housing slump could cost British jobs

Seems unfair that troubles at Northern Rock and with US sub-prime mortgages should end up hammering small businesses in Britain. But then, that’s the joy of spreading risk through derivatives – everyone gets to share the pain.

Implode meter site: The Mortgage Lender Implode meter

We are not alone in the Universe !

Firstrung: Mortgage approvals for house purchases fall by 14% - BBA

Mortgage Lending: When compared to August 2006, house purchase approvals were down 14% by number and 7% by value; remortgaging approvals were up 4% by number and up 11% by value; while approvals for equity withdrawal were down 16% by number and down 9% by value.

Times: UK house prices rise despite lending fears

"UK house prices are still continuing to rise, increasing by 0.7 per cent during September, despite turmoil in the global financial markets and the resulting crisis at mortgage lender, Northern Rock"... maybe the Times (and other papers) did not understand that the Nationwide statistics reflect buying intentions (and mortgage promises) of before the Northern Rock crisis (and probably even before the August credit crunch). Let us wait for October and November data to assess the real impact of the "financial turmoil"!

Bloomberg: U.S. Durables Orders Fell by Most in Seven Months

Orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell in August by the most in seven months, raising concern business investment will soften. Demand for products meant to last several years fell a greater-than-forecast 4.9 percent after a revised 6.1 percent gain the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment such as airplanes, orders declined 1.8 percent after a 3.4 percent gain.

Nationwide: House Prices

Despite the bullish press releases, and the rosy commentary, Nationwide's figures show a simple truth: house price inflation has more than halved over six months, and growth in the average price from June to September (4 months) is negligible. Read for yourselves.

Guardian: That hissing? It's the sound of bubblenomics deflating.

The US and UK economies have been ruined by over-reliance on cheap credit and an a housing-led boom. Economic performance has, by virtually every standard indicator - output, investment, employment and wages - deteriorated, decade by decade, business cycle by business cycle, since the early 70s. In the US a reduction of real short-term interest rates since 2001 has led to an explosion of household borrowing, contibributing to and feeding on rocketing house prices. Inflated household wealth enabled increased consumer spending that, in turn, drove the expansion. Personal consumption plus residential investment accounted for 90-100% of the growth of GDP! The UK is in a similar position.

House prices 'ignore credit woes': BBC

Interesting graph on page 3 of the actual report here . It shows that house price with trend growth would be £130K, but is actually £180K. Anyone know how this survey is put together ? Is it asking prices ? In which case, I wouldn't expect to see any hit from the crunch yet.

FT.com: Lambert attacks oversight system

It's official - we are a Banana Republic. This is the best bit of analysis I have seen anywhere for a while. Lambert telling it how it is. Britain’s system of financial oversight has failed its first big test and left the country looking like a “banana republic” in the aftermath of the Northern Rock crisis, the head of the CBI employers’ organisation said last night. However, Richard Lambert, director-general, warned the government against the knee-jerk remedy of “heavy-handed regulation”, which he said risked stifling competition.

express.co.uk: CRACKDOWN ON STOWAWAYS NETS 150 MIGRANTS A NIGHT

RIOT police launched a crackdown last night on migrants in Cherbourg – which has become the front line in Britain’s war on illegal immigration. Stowaways were pulled from under a lorry in the Normandy port as part of the operation to cut off this new route to the UK.

mortgageblues.us: Investment Banks, Hedge Funds May Implode by August 15th

Remember this !!! well the rest is due NOW Hedge Funds MUST have the funds that their investors requested to withdraw in August (remember the 45 day request limit). Next time a withdrawal can be made will be the end of the coming quarter (Dec), with appropriate consternation 45 days prior when requests are due

This Is Money: Barratt boss warns of house-price falls

The credit crunch and woes of Northern Rock will push down demand for new homes and could result in price falls, Britain's biggest housebuilder warned today.

Aftenposten: Interest Rates up again

Wednesday’s decision to raise the main interest rate was bad news for nervous home owners, already feeling the financial pressure after 12 hikes in the main interest rate since 2005. But governor of Norway's central bank, Svein Gjedrem, pointed to a "stronger than expected" economic growth and an inflation on the rise, and raised the interest rate once again by a quarter point.

BBC Radio 4: Moneybox live

Our very own spokesman for housepricecrash on Radio 4. I've been trying to find a good link for this. This will take you to the web page, but I will try to post the direct links in the comments so that it can still be found in a week's time.

msnbc.msn.com: French public finances 'critical'

French public finances 'critical' France's public finances have reached a "critical" state and are unsustainable, François Fillon, the prime minister, said on Monday as the government took measures to plug a yawning gap in its welfare budget.

chinadaily.com.cn: Mortgage rate may rise

Homebuyers at a real estate exhibition in Dalian, Liaoning Province. The government may raise the interest rate of mortgage lending to curb the fast rise in house prices and speculation in the real estate market.The central bank is likely to stipulate commercial banks to raise mortgage deposits to at least 40 percent for homebuyers who intend to buy a second apartment, according to the source.

ft.com: Bank of England warns of credit risks

Commercial banks expect the turbulence in financial markets to affect the availability of corporate credit far more than their lending to households, the survey showed. The Bank said lenders had raised fees and reduced the amount of credit available to the corporate sector over the past three months, partly due to recent market developments, which they expected “to reduce significantly their capacity to extend corporate credit over the next three months”.

forbes.com: Germany Could Be At Peak Of Economic Cycle

Germany Could Be At Peak Of Economic Cycle LONDON - Earlier this month Michael Glos, Germany's economy minister warned his peers at the Bundestag that "clouds [were] gathering in the economic sky." On Tuesday it looked like Europe's biggest economy was starting to feel the first drops of rain. The trend lower suggested "a permanent change of course" for the German economy, Commerzbank analyst Ralph Solveen said. "We expect the German economy to lose further steam in the coming quarters," he added.

Monevator.com: How Andy Warhol’s loft living sowed the seeds for risky BTL investment

Few BTL investors seem to realise they’re actually paying a hefty price for those shiny new build flats. Fresh paint, unblemished kitchens and the perk of having the keys handed to you by that charming sales rep can come at a 20% premium to buying a second hand home. Some people may feel this is a price worth paying, just as there’s a huge market willing to sacrifice 30% of the cost of a new car the second they drive it away from the showroom. But why would anyone pay tens of thousands of pounds to give their tenants this brand new buzz for free?

AP: Lennar Posts Record $513.9M 3Q Loss

One of the largest house builders in the U.S. records their highest loss in the 53-year history of the company, as U.S. home prices declined at the fastest rate in 16 years. Can it get any worse?

Firstrung.co.uk: First time buyers to pay £1mil in 2024?

It seems that some people just can't help themselves - I can plot points on a graph and use a ruler (or even a spreadsheet!) to draw a line into the future - does that mean I can earn a crust as a financial expert? A large pinch of salt is needed with this press release from Stroud & Swindon. Given that house prices (historically) always return to a trend of 3-4 times average income we can presumably all look forward to earning a minimum of £250,000 by the year 2024. Those of us who commute will 'jet-pack' to work, money will be credits on an implant under the skin and the words "sub" and "prime" will be a distant memory...

snagging.org: The Truth About Property

"The Truth About Property" is a three part prime time BBC Television Current Affairs series which will be broadcast in the autumn. We are looking for contributors to film for a few days in August who have personal experience in buying a New Build property. Have you bought a New Build home in the last five years? Have there been problems with your house? How easy has it been to rectify the faults and have you sought help from any regulatory bodies? Do you think the housebuilding industry is monitored and regulated effectively? If you are interested in taking part please Melanie Hill at the BBC, melanie.hill@bbc.co or 0161 244 3658

BBC News: Barratt blames Rock for falling sales

Is it not the case that Northern Rock is in trouble because there is an underlying problem? A 10% drop in sales and a 20% drop in share price - chief executive Mark Clare needs to find someone to blame - now!

Reuters: Euro rises to 70.23 pence, highest since Jan 2005

LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The euro rose to its highest level versus sterling since early 2005 on Wednesday, with the UK currency staying under pressure on concerns about the health of the British banking sector and possible interest rate cuts.

Firstrung: Two out of five current accounts pay just 0.1 per cent interest to customers in the black

Nearly two out of five current accounts on the market pay just 0.1 per cent to customers in the black, new research from MoneyExpert.com shows. And another nine per cent pay one per cent or less, analysis from the independent personal finance comparison service shows...

Firstrung: London boroughs are failing to build enough affordable housing - Shelter

Mayor Ken Livingstone has said that half of all new London homes must be affordable, with the majority of these being social rented homes, but only a handful of the 33 London councils are meeting their targets. Figures highlighted by Shelter show that in the last three years just five London councils have ensured 50% or more of new housing in their area has been affordable, with some councils providing as little as 12%.

EveryInvestor: Property market looks set to turn

RICS remarked on a 32% rise in repossessions in the second quarter of 2007. It predicted repossessions could rise by a further 50% to 45,000 in 2008. A significant number of these are buy-to-let properties where landlords are throwing in the towel as a result of rising mortgage interest rates. It’s likely that house prices will see their first monthly fall in the next few months, and at some time in 2008, for the first time since 2000, we’ll see a year-on-year decline in average prices. For long-term homeowners, this is of no great importance, but it will be surprising if we don’t soon see a lot more highly geared BTL investors heading for the exit.

Reuters: N.Rock crisis causes dip in Barratt's UK house sales

British housebuilder Barratt Developments (BDEV.L: Quote, Profile , Research) saw sales of its homes plunge as much as 10 percent last week as the crisis at mortgage lender Northern Rock (NRK.L: Quote, Profile , Research) led buyers to pull out of the market.

BBC Radio 4: File on 4 investigation into the coming houising crisis

This has to be the best piece the BBC has FINALLY produced so far on the housing misery that is hitting our shores. A great listen for 38 mins. Starts off slow with some dumb Brummies, but gets much better, with some great tongue in cheek line like "property prices always rise, right ?" Shame the BBC haven't decided to allow this to go out on a more main stream channel.

Yahoo: Property - The Market, Buying, Selling & Renting - buying a home--wait a while?

get posting on this one guys

FT: Barratt hit by ‘Northern Rock effect’

"He also warned the turmoil in the credit markets and this year’s interest rate rises would dampen volumes and prices and that it was unclear how quickly the housing market would recover." Recover ? From what - nothing significant's happened. Do these people actually think that 20% per year price increases are healthy and sustainable ?

BBC News: Extra funds available for banks

At this rate, 0.5% above LIBOR, only companies with terrible credit ratings will go for the loans. The roumour mill will indeed be going around about who has been forced to borrow at this rate. Wouldn't it be a scream if we found out that another mortgage supplier had to dig deep?!

BBC News: BARRATT warns of Housing Slowdown!!!

"But Barratt said the long-term picture for house prices was still positive". What, in that house prices should be 3.5x wages on average and in that the long term sustainable price continues to rise?! What exactly is a slowdown? What a non-commital term, how long until the slowdown becomes crash, becomes slump, becomes meltdown?!

Financial Apponintent: Job worries escalate

Experts are now predicting that up to 10,000 City jobs may be at risk as a result of the credit turmoil in the financial markets. Lehman Brothers have already got rid of 800 employees and some investment banks are believed to be thinking of cutting up to 15% of their workforce.

Bloomberg: U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines More Than Forecast

Consumer confidence fell more than forecast in September to the lowest level in almost two years, as declining home values, a deteriorating labor market and tougher borrowing standards took a toll on Americans' spirits.

bbc file on 4: self cert borrowing and btl scam

already refered to yesterday, but actual programme refers to 2 scams. 1. about self cert borrowers lying - mentioned in blog yesterday 2, about BTL new units being sold at 85% of claimed price so that BTL mortgage actually covers whole price and banks carry whole risk. Encourages reckless buying and figures for claim price make it to Land Registry which means their statistics are cast in doubt. (the link is for the file on 4 programme - can be listened to for 1 week after broadcast on 25 Sept)

ft.com: German Ifo business-climate index on Tuesday – to its lowest level since

The slowdown begins. An unexpectedly steep fall in the German Ifo business-climate index on Tuesday – to its lowest level since February 2006 – shows that the best part of the upswing in Europe’s biggest economy is over, with consequences all over the 13-nation eurozone. With the euro last week reaching record levels against the dollar and, more crucially, on a trade-weighted index, the latest news seems unsurprising. But it is not clear whether the currency’s recent appreciation – the result of the global credit squeeze and fears about the US economy – is yet to blame http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d1322e24-6bc9-11dc-863b-

ft.com: Insight: Dwindling US trade deficit could reshape world business

The latest monthly data showed the US trade deficit was about $59bn. On an annualised basis, this is just over 5 per cent of gross domestic product, an improvement from the 7 per cent level of not so long ago. Within the details, there are also some impressive signs.

independent.co.uk: Labour prepares its activists for a snap election

Labour prepares its activists for a snap election Gordon Brown came under mounting pressure yesterday to call a snap election this autumn as a new opinion poll put Labour 11 points ahead of the Tories. Another bout of election fever gripped the Labour conference in Bournemouth, where delegates were put on full alert for an early poll and issued with a 96-page "campaign toolkit". Peter Watt, Labour's general secretary, said in his introduction: "The preparations for the next general election are now well under way."