Friday, Sep 28, 2007
The boom is over: Chelsea just +0.1% m/m!!
LandRegistry: August prices
Housing boom is definitely over, despite the vomiting positive spin in the press. Kensington & Chelsea did not see any price gain in August (+0.1%) followed by 3 London boroughs with NEGATIVE gains. Very low gains in the over-btl-developed Tower Hamlets. Growth comes from the boroughs where the BTLs are flocking (Camden, Lambeth, etc). But sales volumes are a wopping 15% down (-17% in London!) vs last year. And sales in the over £2m range are dropping!! YEAH!!
Posted by confused76 @ 02:02 PM (1087 views) Add Comment
14 Comments
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1. confused76 said...
The silver lining of the reported price increase is that BoE IR will NOT go down next month.
as shown by the pound up versus the euro
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/13/default.stm
2. harold said...
"London boroughs with NEGATIVE gains"
Err, falls?
3. Global Citizen said...
Anyway, most of the mortage deals in this report would have been agreed prior to the credit crunch and NR crisis. So I think the real picture will only come only near christmas.
Still, it is interesting to note that the prices were on the way down even before the credit crisis.
4. financial planner said...
As we have said loudly, when no-one buys at the bottom, chains can't complete and so on - HPC. Page 13 - up to £250k numbers of transactions down 20% !!!!!!!!! y-on-y.
5. magnifico said...
Crickey this is significant! I am of the opinion that the Russian billionaires-fuelled London market has been the reason why the property market around the country has not seen considerable losses yet. The message is coming out louder and clearer: times are a-changing.
6. Crb said...
Whats interesting looking at the graph on the home page is that prices appear to double between 1980 - 1990 but havent achieved the same growth levls between 1990 - 2007.... Has there really be such significant price growth? Perhaps there tons of growth left in the market.
In the upper echlons at least, there's tons of cash splashing around; perhaps that's why London has remained strong. Chelsea and Fulham are still off the scale man.
7. maddison said...
Still looks to me that London continues to be strong. Fewer transactions basically means it is a market for only the rich
8. confused76 said...
yeah
but london is also the place where masses of BTLers are going to exit when confronted with the prospect of
0.1% x 12 = 1.2% annual price growth
sh**ty prospect, isn t it?
9. voiceofreason said...
-0.9% and -1.1% monthly fall in NE and East Midlands.
If these figures don't yet see the effect of the credit crunch (being from Aug 07), then if these areas accelerate downwards, it is looking like a 12% to 20%+ loss by Aug 2008 ..... ouch !
10. inbreda said...
At the end of the day if only one house sales in a year, to a really rich person who doesn't care what happens to its value, the figures will still show an increase.
But what relevance does it hold to the rest of us?
It's not until the forced sales are ... forced .... that we will see substantive losses on house prices
11. confused76 said...
I tell you what the relevance is to me...
If I went out and offered 10% below asking price, the seller yesterday would have laughed.
Now the seller calls me back.
So I am offering 20% less to stop the calls.
Waiting next year and I will buy 20% below today asking price
Even with forced sale, the collapse in sale volumes today means dropping prices tomorrow (despite what that buffoon of David Smith keeps saying)
12. confused76 said...
Oopss...
I meant
"Even without forced sales..."
13. Island Of Sanity said...
Won't place that much weight on the data for recent trends, although this is most accurate of the lot (being based on actual prices) as it was mostly for transactions entered into earlier this year when the market was much more hot
14. autopilotengage said...
Below link is a great Radio programme relating to the "accuracy" of the land registry figures and other HPC data. If you haven't already listened to this, it's well worth the time as it's not only interesting, it's also very, very funny.
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/radio4/fileon4/fileon4_20070925-2106.mp3
Below is the original discussion page for it on HPC:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/09/blog-perfect-storm-of-events-7004.php