Tuesday, Sep 25, 2007
More Record Price Falls in US
Bloomberg: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Falls 3.9% in July
The Case Shiller Index, the best index of house prices in the US, shows another record fall in prices.
"Increased lending restrictions and reduced demand are prolonging the housing slump, now entering its third year. Price declines may continue, and possibly deepen, because homes are staying on the market longer, economists said."
Posted by richc @ 02:29 PM (1039 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
In iceberg terms, they haven't reached the water-line yet.
"possibly deepen" is a very soft understatement.
2. harold said...
Anyone fancy shortening the odds of UK HPC from 10:1 to, say, 1:1?
3. crash bandicoot said...
Is this what a "period of stagnation" looks like? Or perhaps it's a house price "plateau", we have entered a new paridigm after all.
4. Andy said...
In iceberg terms, the whole american economy is heading south for a big melt.
5. tyrellcorporation said...
Stagnation will occur until the EAs start losing their jobs. Then they will be phoning up sellers and 'advising' them that the 'challenging market conditions' mean they have to start being 'realistic' about prices.
6. planning4acrash said...
The use of the slump word is significant. A crash is a 10% fall, slump is a fall of 20% or more I believe.
7. Realist said...
I reckon we are about a year behind the US - sentiment has now shifted and although the housing market slows and turns rather like an oil tanker, the flow of bad news, negative sentiment and tighter money has created an unstoppable momentum. Optimists like our Dave will carry on clinging to the odd hope but things will only go in one direction now. It will be interesting to see the Nationwide figures for September which are out on Thurs.
8. uncle tom said...
Note that the underlying trend is one of an accelerating fall - the inverse sine curve that I have long predicted for the UK (when it happens..)
By contrast, the 90's slump in the UK started rapidly and then gently arrested.
This type of downturn is likely to develop into an outright crash, overshooting the level that is ultimately sustainable, and then rebounding before settling at a sustainable level.
Anyone with shares in companies that depend on US discretionary spending for their profits - such as German car makers, whisky distillers, LVMH (and the like) - not to mention a host of US companies that trade in non-essentials - should dump them now.
Personally I'm holding on to my Boeing shares though - with the current exchange rate, Airbus are completely stuffed!
9. alan said...
Uncle Tom,
Don't mark down Airbus yet.
The EU still have cards to play, one of which is to cut IRs. A Euro exchange rate of $1.42 is difficult to live with. But a $1.45 exchange rate, I think, will make Trichet cut rates and race Ben to the bottom.
This will particularly help the Spanish who want cheap loans to prevent their house prices deteriorating. Now...where have I heard that before...?
10. uncle tom said...
There is so much inflationary pressure in the system, it will be hard for either the Fed or ECB to do much rate cutting - it gets very expensive for governments if their central bank interest rate falls below the rate of inflation - moreover, whatever rates the central banks set, the markets are dictating a much higher level of interest now.
11. tyrellcorporation said...
Alan, don't expect a rate cut from the EU too soon...
The French (of all people) have started spending again!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7011848.stm