Tuesday, Sep 11, 2007
Moody's is predicting a slide in the housing market into 2009
FT: A recession is already here: the credit crunch is a collateral crunch
Predictions are now of a recession and falling house prices for at least two years and then subdued market activity after that in the US. This has happened in a matter of months in the US.
Anyone confident that it can't happen in the UK has their head in the sand. Personally, on all the current evidence I would put the chance of a HPC in the UK in the next three years at above 90%.
Posted by c'mon correction @ 11:16 AM (849 views) Add Comment
3 Comments
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1. Alan said...
How come Moody's has just found this out?
Weren't they the rating company that graded all the US sub-prime loans as good stuff?
I suspect they have been cribbing ideas from this website - we should be charging them for advice!
2. planning4acrash said...
The graph at the bottom of the page is fascinating. It took a while for me to work it out, but basically, what it shows is that properties for sale went down during the last crash and downward price pressure came from poor demand as a result of high interest rates and joblessness. This time its different, houses for sale are going up, so, you get a combination of high supply from people offloading properties, plus low demand from more expensive finance and potentially a recession around the corner, so the potential for a crash is multiplied many times. Last time it took a long time for prices to bottom out, the change may be swifter and harsher. This is the case for the US which has seen prices fall faster than ever before and the first ever net fall for the States as a whole. Why should we be any different?
3. lvmreader said...
Given how well Moody's rated all those CDOs and other Mortgage Backed Securities, why is anyone listening to these fools.