Saturday, Sep 22, 2007

It is quite likely that liquidity support will be required by other UK Banks

BusinessWeek: Crisis at Northern Rock

Good analysis by BusinessWeek. Simon Adamson, London-based senior analyst at Credit Sights comments that "the liquidity freeze we are seeing is getting worse." Also Bradford & Bingley a lender heavily involved with buy to let (BTL) is seen as facing pressure.
The article is a week old and a lot has changed in a week but the content of the article is highly relevent.

Posted by denzil @ 12:55 PM (770 views) Add Comment

18 Comments

1. confused76 said...

You can quite easily rank the difficulties these lenders are facing by the premia they offer on the savings interest rates.
Six-month or one-year bonds close to 8% are a sign of distress, almost desperation.

Saturday, September 22, 2007 02:04PM Report Comment
 

2. Sherlock Homes said...

and huff and puff and ill blow your house down, and city bonuses? where did they come from now......the imagination of course.
liquidity anyone would think the ice is freezing again.and whose afraid of the big bad wolf the big bad wolf,(alan greenback)
why bite the hand that feeds you, when you can get it to give you everything... whose going to go skiing on the dollar, perhaps the saudis or chineese?
dont worry georgey pordgie puddingham pie hurricane season in the gulf will be over in a couple of months?

Saturday, September 22, 2007 02:58PM Report Comment
 

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5. alan said...

I would have thought if B&B were having liquidity problems they wouldn't advertise their 110% mortgages for FTBs quite so heavily. Because if they are pumping out lots of cash in loans, they presumably don't need it for branch liquidity....

On the other hand, if the BoE is going to guarantee the first £100,000 in all Bank accounts, who cares about liquidity?

Saturday, September 22, 2007 06:37PM Report Comment
 

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9. david20040_0 said...

After the BoE has offered to bail out banks and savers this is irrelevant and so therefore no crash will occur.

Saturday, September 22, 2007 08:40PM Report Comment
 

10. denzil said...

David,
I'm not sure the offer of bail out make any DIRECT difference as to whether there will be an HPC. Indirectally if companies cannot raise finance this will lead to redundancies, forced sales etc....
A credit-crunch is a credit-crunch regardless of saver bail-out. The banks have got very tetchy about lending money. The days of just throwing money at anybody who could prove they possess a pulse have passed.
Is this enough to cause a crash? I doubt it, but throw a few more ingrediants into the mix and I will shift my position from stagnation to crash.

Saturday, September 22, 2007 09:03PM Report Comment
 

11. david20040_0 said...

The banks haven't got techcy about lending money follwoing the bail out of NR.

If the Govt hadn't bailed them out then Abbey wouldn't have launched its 125%, 6* salary mortgage this week.

Saturday, September 22, 2007 10:10PM Report Comment
 

12. crash bandicoot said...

Wow David you have your teeth into this 6x mortgage!

The housing market is bust - it must be if it needs 6x mortgages to sustain it (actually it needs 9x but that's another story). The only difference is the time to bust. If there is no overhyped lending, then the crash will be immediate because nobody can afford the current prices without high income multiples. If high income multiples are still available then the crash will be slower and will be caused by distressed sellers because nobody can afford to repay a 6x mortgage over its full term. Everyone taking out one of these mortgages is backing the fact that houses only rise in value and that just ain't true. As for the government/BOE's tapmering with bank activity, it makes no difference in the end. If you can't afford to pay your mortgage, how protected the bank's borrowers are is about as relevant as the colour they have painted their foyer.

Saturday, September 22, 2007 11:03PM Report Comment
 

13. david20040_0 said...

Historically the avg is 3.5* salary.

If interest rates drop, which they are now expected to do and will because the Govt will order the BoE to do so then watch 6* multriples become "affordable".

Sunday, September 23, 2007 12:28AM Report Comment
 

14. david20040_0 said...

If multiples of these rates weren't "affordable" anymore the banks wouldn't be able to offer them. They know they will be "affordable" because the BoE is going to lower rates.

Sunday, September 23, 2007 12:29AM Report Comment
 

15. ck one said...

Dave I'll repost this one from an earlier thread to catch you in full HPC denial mode...

David good to see you losing the plot as always during a blog, two points to make... i) If bread, petrol, imports, plastics, meat, every damn commodity you can think of is in a global super cycle; things cost more... In other words people's outgoings are increasing much faster than wages. ii) You don't get a mortgage from the Bank of England, Fed Reserve or any other central bank, you do get it from a high street (or similar) bank and these are the guys that are not lending and re-pricing risk.

Basically money is harder to come by and peoples cost of living is moving higher quickly. The central banks are just covering their ar**'s for when the real turds hit the fan.

Oh and another point I work for a company that is owned by a US private equity group, we are now officially up for sale to anyone who has got a spare 'tenner'... Believe me unemployment is just about to move as fast as Gordon Browns finger on the trigger of the election gun!

Sunday, September 23, 2007 12:32AM Report Comment
 

16. Dandare500 said...

Sorry to be so cynical, but I don't believe the £100,000 protection line in bank accounts is any more than spin and "we might" to keep the sheep happy.

Sunday, September 23, 2007 10:16AM Report Comment
 

17. denzil said...

David,
I did mention "companies raising finance" in my comment.
I should have spelt it out. Banks lend money for more than mortgages. Business constantly borrows huge amounts of money. If they cannot borrow or the rate they borrow at rises significantly then that impacts the economy which in turn hits jobs which in turn forces house sales.

Sunday, September 23, 2007 10:17AM Report Comment
 

18. Dandare500 said...

No surprise. Upon looking closer, his comment was "Although a figure has not yet been decided upon, Mr Darling told the paper that £100,000 was possible."

Sunday, September 23, 2007 10:23AM Report Comment
 

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