Wednesday, Sep 26, 2007
FTBs to pay £1m for a house in Northern Ireland by 2018 - is this house price comedy?
Firstrung.co.uk: First time buyers to pay £1mil in 2024?
It seems that some people just can't help themselves - I can plot points on a graph and use a ruler (or even a spreadsheet!) to draw a line into the future - does that mean I can earn a crust as a financial expert?
A large pinch of salt is needed with this press release from Stroud & Swindon. Given that house prices (historically) always return to a trend of 3-4 times average income we can presumably all look forward to earning a minimum of £250,000 by the year 2024. Those of us who commute will 'jet-pack' to work, money will be credits on an implant under the skin and the words "sub" and "prime" will be a distant memory...
Posted by shipbuilder @ 01:42 PM (906 views) Add Comment
20 Comments
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1. Sold2rent said...
Currently the average house price over here in NI is around 15 times average salary!!!
2. mrmickey said...
Sounds more like Zimbabwe every day.
3. Commonsense said...
And no doubt they would have predicted a Northern Rock share price of £100 by 2024......until a month or so ago.
4. Davros said...
I've always assumed that the house price 'forecasts' of the major lenders were just an extrapolation of the previous few months figures and here's the proof.
5. Yorkshireman said...
This must be a joke, because no one in their right mind would print or believe such rubbish. I run a company, so I know something of what makes a business function. There are a number of universal truths and here is one of them. A low volume business is high margin and a high volume business is low margin. That is the way things work. The housing market and its financial services, rely on a high volume. It appears that they wish to have a high margin as well. Alright, I will raise the price of our consumer products by a modest 10% a year - shortly before I resign. Then the people who follow me will have no problem running the business, because there will be no business to worry about.
The experts and those with a vested interest should listen to what we are saying on this website. They should listen with their ears, take off their rose tinted spectacles and stop talking out of their arses. The property party is well and truly over.
6. harold said...
"FTBs to pay £1m for a house in Northern Ireland by 2018"
We may laugh, but God knows what boom they'll cook up after the current approaching depression.
7. Island Of Sanity said...
If they extrapoloate to 2050 they would get to average prices being £250m !! I wonder wh the point of these statements is
8. su said...
Sold2rent. Are house prices still going up over there or have they plateaued?
15 X average salary seems science-fictional! Are the houses or gardens extra big over there? Or are all the taps made of solid gold!
Gives a whole new meaning to "the luck of the Irish!"
9. Crash Bandicoot said...
"it is vitally important for both potential first time buyers and their parents to start putting money aside for a house deposit as soon as possible"
Why? At 15x salary they'll never be able to buy one anyway.
10. Commonsense said...
Young boy at airport: Daddy, look at that aeroplane taking off!
Dad: Yes son. And if it carries on like that it'll reach outer space in a couple of hours!
Young boy: Wow!
11. An Bearin Bui said...
They could well be right - after all if the Fed keep on cutting interest rates and the BoE follow suit then it could well be the case that we're all earning £500k per year in 2024 and thus £1m would get you a modest starter home on the outskirts of Belfast. Hey why stop there? We could all be earning £12m a year in 2024! The monthly repayments would be quite affordable when you're bringing home about £1m a month. Then again, a loaf of bread would be costing you about £1000 or something and oil will be up at $500 dollars a barrel, if there's any left at all. Complicated business, the whole inflation thing, isn't it?
I love the thought of all the estate agent fools reading their newspapers and gloating at the thought of all being multi-millionaires by 2024 - but not understanding the implications of that. Some people really are that stupid...
12. Sold2rent said...
su
despite what the media and VIs over here say, prices seem to be on the turn - lots for sale at the minute, but few buying - quite a few price drops as well.
The "investors" have deserted the market and the ordinary public can't or won't buy at current prices.
NI never had a major house price boom before, and a lot of people got carried away with it. I expect the crash to be pretty severe over here.
13. alan said...
If I were selling BTLs, and I wanted someone really stupid to sell to, I'd look up the local branch of Stroud & Swindon and earn a very big bonus.
14. autopilotengage said...
If only planes could fly into space, there might be some more room up there for more houses, as apparently there's none left here, especially once we run out of houses in Bulgaria. As i'll clearly never be able to afford a house, i'm going to invest in Virgin Galactic. I really am embarrased to be the same species as these parasites.
15. autopilotengage said...
I earn enough to afford a house on my own; 50K a year, and i work in Oldham, which is apparently one of the "cheapest" places to buy in the country. I currently have absolutely no plans to buy one, i want no part of this madness, for the sake of my children. Currently my aspiration for the future, after reading this and many similar articles, is to live in a brightly painted cardboard box outside the house of commons. Hopefully, others will start to make equally unusual protests and eventually someone who works in the house of commons might notice that there's a problem.
16. New_order said...
50k a year for working in Oldham. Must be danger money!
17. Larry Pickleman said...
I grew up in west belfasts Shankill road...My parents had property developers move into their run down area about 7 years ago...they bought up terrace houses that would have fetched 100k over here in the mainland for between 10-15k with quick almost cash in hand deals, mostly to pensioners who could then get a dhss bungalow and put a few quid in the bank. There are now houses selling in that area for 150k, though god knows how anyone apart form a wealthy retired paramilitary can afford those, nevermind why anyone would want to buy them in such a run down area.
It's an absolute Joke of gigantic proportions!!!
18. Orwell said...
Ditto Autpilotengage,
A small businessman in the South West with 30-40k in the bank. Ithink we are doing a service if we can bankrput the greedy ones for the sake of generations following....
Notwithstanding they have probably created the lowest birthrate in UK history....
19. sirgoogle said...
Actually the scenario could be true and 1M might be a reasonable price as inflation will have hit 1930s Germany rates by then.
Anybody think that Crash Gordon will pursuade the BoE to lower interest rates in this climate ?? Remeber Sterling has been losing sharply against the Euro in recent days - and a cut in rates will see a collapse in the value of the currency
My bet is to keep rates the same or wack them up - just look what happened to the Dollar when the Fed took its daft decision last month..
20. Notbuyingyet said...
More BS from people with a vested interest (S&S) into "scaring" the naive into buying in a dangerously overpriced market that's about to crash, to help them to prop up their own hammered business.
Nothing like a bit of scare mongering in the current climate to try to drum up business. If house prices are a million, then the average wage will have to rise to £250,000 per year, as it's the only way a market like that would be supportable. Utter drivel by people who should know better. Yorkshireman got it spot on in terms of how businesses work. And listening to Radio Four last night, when managers of estate agencies get burdened with BTL they can't let or sell a new £150,000 flat in a city centre (ha, ha!!!! ) because they believe their own BS, then you can figure out how stupid they and this statement is for yourself.