Thursday, Sep 27, 2007
Crash postponed???????
Fool: House Prices Look Surprisingly Strong
Today's house price figures from Nationwide Building Society are surprisingly positive. House prices rose 0.7% in September compared to a 0.6% gain in August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had only expected a 0.3% rise for this month.
Posted by david20040_0 @ 07:18 PM (1053 views) Add Comment
19 Comments
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1. david20040_0 said...
All the supposed crap that seems to be happening in the markets but nothing seems to be happening.
The FTSE has recovered strongly since the NR crisis it is at 6400 now which is quite an amazing recovery.
And with 200k immigrants set to enter every year surely this will underpin house prices.
2. the bald man said...
david20040...and how will those immigrants pay the inflated prices from their minimum wages?
3. Dave said...
Are you surprised? This took a massive base rate cut in the US, injection of £10bn in liquidity into the LIBOR market, plus a guarantee of no loss of deposits in UK banks!! I don't think that this is supposed crap. Panic, more like...
4. Realist said...
Yes don't worry dave - everything is going to be fine.
5. david20040_0 said...
If 200k enter ever year just the sheer number will underpin house prices because BTL will be able to rent to them even if they can't afford houses themselves.
6. voiceofreason said...
David, check out the earlier threads where we pick apart this Nationwide report.
E.g. average house prices have remained static since June. Average price actually fell in August, but the "stats" showed a 0.6% rise.
7. Dave said...
200k immigrants coming to the UK every year assumes two things:
1. There's no-one leaving the UK
2. The economy is strong enough to attract net immigration.
1 is clearly not true, there is a large number leaving every year. 2 is the economy strong? I no think so - were headed south.
8. su said...
Has anyone else noticed that "Big Issue" sellers seem to have trouble speaking English now? If immigrants are classed as homeless, then no doubt they'll qualify for Edinburgh Council's offer to house them in empty BTL properties (assuming the landlords are happy to sign a contract with the council who will pay the rent). I wonder if this scheme for dealing with the homeless will catch on in other parts of UK.
9. david20040_0 said...
Quite a few in the Midlands are too.
More immigration = more demand for rental hosuing supporting BTLers.
10. alan said...
Rightmove statistics reflect asking prices and these dropped 2.6% in September.
There are already more properties than usual in my local EAs windows and on the Rightmove website for my area (South of Chelmsford, Essex). This means sellers will need to trim prices to make their properties attractive to the few people who can afford these really high local house prices.
I can't seem any postponement.....its a downward slide.
11. david20040_0 said...
Has anyone seen BBC News 24 today, they have a big story on house prices and how they are only rising very slowly and this is damaging the economy and that interest rate cuts are desperately needed.
12. wiltshire said...
David, how come you only come out of the woodwork when there's bull-ish news? We haven't seen you so far this week. You keep trotting out the same old cliched arguments that few here believe hold any water. Let me shoot another of your views down - immigrants are not going to keep flooding into the UK soon, when they see where the UK economy is going.............
13. inbreda said...
David - "house prices and how they are only rising very slowly and this is damaging the economy"
if a giant ponzi is all that is holding up the whole of the british economy I would suggest that the UK is the lasst place anyone should be thinking of buying a house. Particularly considering that a cut in rates weakens the pound which creates inflation.
14. david20040_0 said...
I hardly get to blog anymore because of the long hours I am working at the moment.
Immigration will remain high wiltshire. It is reported that immigration estimates were too low and even with a slow down we are a very attractice country to come too with it being easier to enter here than the USA and others.
200k will make a significant impact.
15. Brit1234 said...
Out of that 200k how many go back home. Where I work in West London I know loads of polish people going back to Poland. Conditions there have improved dramatically and there is a mini boom going there, plus most are here only on a temporary basis like the polish students who just work their summer holidays.
Also there are record amounts of British emigrating and lower British birth rate to consider.
16. uncle tom said...
As I pointed out on another thread, this is a lagging statistic - it reflects home purchase decisions that were mostly made in July.
The data from Rightmove and RICS is much more current, and that tells a very different story.
Expect more bullish headlines when the next Land Registry based data gets released - that is even more out of date..!
17. Bearshare1616 said...
David, The immigration numbers are a very good VI spin tool and are used widely to support continued HPI. The reality is that most immigrants rent a bedroom or some even sleep rough. They will not single handedly support the overinflated housing boom. The few, when added together probably account for a ration of 5 to 1 against FTB, who incidentally probably still live with mum and dad. If all of the 200,000 were doctors or professionals I would agree with you however the majority serve drinks, cut hedges and return home with their cash, they don't buy many houses or rent many BTL !!
18. Koala Bear said...
And as we know from the File on Four story, Land Registry data is also inaccurate/inflated.
19. planning4acrash said...
The flexibility of our economy may be its strongest point. That banks can chop jobs in the face of recession may mean that the remain when they would have moved away if they had been in France. That mass groups of imported labour can come and go means we can service high demand without having to pay benefits. But that is for the long term, it won't stop where we must go to rebalance our economy.