Wednesday, Aug 15, 2007
This is really starting to hurt
BBC: Woes continue among global stocks
FTSE is tanking and it may drop below 6000 by the end of day.... That would be a drop of over 700 points since July..
Posted by george monsoon @ 08:35 AM (169 views) Add Comment
25 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. harold said...
At some point they may have to start using the c-word ("crash" rather than "correction").
2. bingo said...
Nah, I think more of a correction than a crash. The main thing that has caused a reduction in value of the stock markets has been the speculative money that was banking on the M&A business continuing to grow is now backing out. There isn't the silly money flying around the system for M&A anymore and therefore the value of companies will settle back to a more realistic level. But as usual, the LSE is like a herd of sheep, how the London market closes will completley depend on how the DJIA opens the day. Looking at the futures for the DJ, it doesn't look great at the moment.
This is all of course my own opinion, please don't nail me to the cross if it is completely off base...
3. inbreda said...
I am kind of with bingo on this one, but I do think there could be a nasty shock from cdos or a hedge fund that might cause further falls.
Either way, David_2004s predictions that the blip would have corrected itself by midweek seem to be a little...erm...wrong.
4. mrmickey said...
I think what we are experiencing at the moment are just the rumblings the big one is still out there. Nobody really has a clue what damage has been done to the global financial banking system, the money injected in to the system by the central banks works if all were experiencing is pure panic but that is not the case so don't put your tin hat away just yet.
5. bingo said...
Can you believe I got castigated yesterday for reminding everyone what that idiot said on Monday evening? He literally called us all stupid and gloated for about 3 hours online just because he happened to guess right that the market would bounce on Monday. The really annoying thing is, he seems to think he has some real insight at a time where even the most experienced broker is completely confused at the moment. I have been saying for weeks he is a bull in bears clothing and is only here to wind everyone up. He should have been ignored weeks ago when he put the high oil prices down to the 'driving season' in the States. What a complete simpleton...
6. voiceofreason said...
The markets will not steady themselves until the truth comes out about who is really left holding the $300bn US sub-prime bad debts.
The other unknown is the extent of the spread into the wider economy. And or particular importance to this website, what will the effect be on consumer lending and therefore house prices ?
The losses will only turn up when the debt needs to be re-financed. Some short term debt is already hitting this problem hence yesterday's US market falls (see www.thestreet.com). As longer dated debt comes up for renewal, expect more of this.
The market is trying to price in this uncertainty.
7. Pecker said...
Bingo is on the money re David.. Some of his comments seem like a 4 yr old has got hold of his fathers computer and is trying his very best to get involved with the debates..
8. sold 2 rent 1 said...
GBP/Yen 232.21500
The carry trade is being tested again.
IG index has pulled the plug on all put options below 233.
The gamblers must be expecting the BIG ONE between now and early-mid Sept.
I think that is a fair guess.
9. Stoatgobbler said...
Does anyone think Central Banks would be pumping massive liquidity into the system if there wasn't a serious problem? I fully agree with the idea that the 'big one' is still out there, and I think it will come in the form of one of the Prime Brokers taking a big, if not fatal, hit from the leverage that has been provided to CDO buying hedge funds. Lets see. In the meantime I like deep out of the money puts on all equity indices...good luck!
10. stillthinking said...
When the BoE increased the money supply by 13% every year, does that mean in terms of increased lending to banks swelling credit, or does it mean that they printed 13% more paper? Anybody know?
11. Winnie said...
Is now the time for a Japanese currency ETF methinks?
12. george monsoon said...
When the bank increases money supply, it is creating inflation by devaluing the £
Actually I am not at all sure about the above statement, but I think its correct.. any takers?
13. mrmickey said...
george if the economy is expanding then the money supply will need to expand with it which shouldn't devalue the £, but I suppose if the rate at which the money supply is expanding exceeds the rate at which the economy is growing then the £ will devalue and prices will rise as a result. I'm not an economist but that sounds logical to me maybe i'm wrong.
14. Noodlebike said...
Great depression 2 is bubbling along nicely...!!!
15. george monsoon said...
Mr Mickey,
so growth should (give or take a %) match the money supply increase almost exactly.
Does anyone have the annual economic growth figures for the last year? was it 13% ?
16. stillthinking said...
I think that maybe that was a stupid question by me because now I think credit and fiat are the same for the central bank, but different for banks. When the BoE lends it must be lending magic created money but with the printers they can make real paper currency to back it, but when the banks lend they just make a credit expansion because they can't print money. So the BoE causes real inflation and the banks cause fake/transient inflation until pop time. So when debtors fail on banks magic money disappears, and when banks fail to pay central bank loans the paper remains. This wasn't explained in this link http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/2871#more which somebody posted earlier which I now repost in case anybody missed it. Which means only governments and failed BoE debtor banks cause real, absolutely here to stay inflation, and the rest of the inflation is essentially temporary. Which must mean that we are now deflating, as in the same amount of money does truly get more shares today than last friday, and the central bank liquidity is fake inflation that can't possibly help. Which leads to the conclusion that the BoE and ECB are trying to smooth the path to deflation and avoid shocks because they actually can't do anything else. Unless they repeat 9/11 and give the banks free money by lending with interest rates below the real inflation level, taking from savers.
This must be it. The banks/funds are getting free money off the government while we are all complaining about stated inflation figures being deceitfully low, to stave off collapse. However, during the credit crunch, inflation(the true one whatever it is) falls, and the central banks have to keep the cost of their cheap money below that. Which must be why the ECB put such a colossal amount in now so they don't later have to keep undercutting inflation (to make the cash free a la Bernanke) and avoid dropping their cheap money interest rates in the end to zero, when game over.
???????
17. Blindleadtheblind said...
GM & Mr M you are indeed correct, if we were still on a gold standard that is precisely what would happen, however in the fiat system we have now all the central banks are inflating money supply at high levels so all currency values are falling (some quicker, some slower) as measured in real goods or commodities...hope that makes sense
18. mrmickey said...
george I hope your not suggesting that the money supply has been increased way above the rate of economic growth just to create a false sense of wealth and create massive houseprice inflation and ultimately crushing the value of the £.
19. stillthinking said...
One more thing as I can't stop myself.
The banks are already failing now. Just a matter of nomenclature. A bank holds depositors money and a hedge fund holds depositors money. They are the same. If the hedge puts a stop on money being pulled out, that is the same as a high street bank locking the doors and turning the cash machines off. If a hedge fund makes a total loss, that is the same as a bust high street bank. The customer in the street isn't panicking because not told to by the media, the hedge fund customers -are- panicking now. The average customer in the street would want to switch to cash. So do the hedge fund customers.
Getting carried away with rapid recent events most probably but big big things are afoot.
20. Tom101 said...
Perhaps another Black Wednesday today when DOW gets going......
21. sold 2 rent 1 said...
S&P futures down 0.5%.
Market opens in an hour.
It's going to be another blood bath today.
The BBC website had better get those library pictures of distressed traders ready again.
22. stillthinking said...
One tiny extra comment. Falling share prices do mean deflation, so me talking about lower inflation misses the point. And so nobody can borrow at all, because even 0% interest rate would cost in real terms if you were attempting to make a profit buying and selling shares in a falling market. Unless you went for futures and thereby accelerated the collapse. The great depression took from October to June to drop to 20% and the ftse 100 is still going rapidly down now, so if there is no recovery in the next week,
we've all had it.
Hopefully I am wrong, I don't actually understand this stuff very well so don't be misled by me.
23. Red Kharma said...
The real issue here in my mind is not so much the pricing of the "real" assets at all, it is the derivatives trade. This is a house of cards built upon hugely leveraged debt, not "real" assets. Precisely the problem with Bear Stearns funds collapsing. The credit fiat money created by say, Citibank, JPMorgan, HSBC and ploughed into derivatives which themselves are then leveraged up 10/20 times and so on, cannot carry on inflating ad-infinitum. As people start asking for their "real" money back, these banks, hedge-funds etc are getting caught out because they don't have it. It doesn't exist, it never really existed except on a computer screen. The reason share markets are falling is nothing much to do with risk or IRs it is because real assets (shares etc) are having to be sold to repay investors. Last week was panic selling to get cash quickly. Hence the central banks bail-outs. From here on in, the selling may be less panicky, but it will still continue. The markets are now actually lower than they were last week and still falling. Like the HPC, there may be a delay, even for a year or two, but the big one is still going to happen sooner or later as all this non-existent "money" is destroyed.
24. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Cracking comments.
I believe financial/economic stuff is a bit like football commentary. A lot of experts spouting drivel and a load of amateurs having impassioned debates - and quite often being just as right, if not moreso, than the experts.
For the inflation/deflation question, I think that the total amount of currency in circulation gradually matches the total "real value" in the economy, which is why printing money causes inflation.
As for the rumblings of a big one, that seems logical. We are so exponentially far above/below so many measures and trends that a few hundred FTSE points here or there is trifling. It is most likely that things will swing back to trend. The "correction" that would be needed is massive. We can therefore say with some validity that there will be major major changes as the system rebalances.
25. ck one said...
The correction is currently in denial mode, all these bull traders are acting as collective Nick Leesons they just can't stop believing the market will turn, this is why there is such high volatility. This is going to get ugly when the markets realize that this volatility and lack of direction won't go way until the full cost of the credit tightening is costed in. Big companies will retrench Capex spending and jobs will be lost, a number of companies will start failing. Stocks will fall heavily once the reality hits home this is more than a speed bump, the Barings failure will look like a walk in the park compared to the fall out from this train wreck. I repeat my figures from a previous posting FTSE will be 5400 by early Oct, then a further period of free fall will take place during Q4 when a large chunk of quoted companies put out profit warnings.
By the way, Nick (Mr Leeson of course) if you are out their I would like to hear what your views are on the current situation.....