Tuesday, Aug 28, 2007
Record Drop:this only ever going one way
The Street: Record Drop in Home Prices
Either like the Chess Grandmaster you knock over the king now, or like the beginner do you need to follow through every single pre-ordained move until the end? The UK is next. It may even overtake the US on the way down.
Posted by whiteknight @ 03:58 PM (1169 views) Add Comment
19 Comments
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1. whiteknight said...
At the risk of being considered to comment my own article; every path leads to checkmate in 10 moves time. Time to get out of the game.
2. Mark said...
ha ha ha... a redrow banner advert on houseprice crash.... the best this year...
3. Pecker said...
David??? Where are you??????
4. wiltshire said...
I was thinking EXACTLY the same thing.
We'll have to wait for either the FTSE or DOW to edge back into positive territory, that usually brings him out of the woodwork! Although I also thought the "Times: Crime suspects swap cells for city flats to ease prison crowding" thread might be enough to bring him charging back into the fray!!!!
5. Orwell said...
But its different here..........
6. david20040_0 said...
This is the United States, which has a lot of space and builds enough houses in contrast to England.
7. enuii said...
Dave, The amount of space, or lack of it, won't back a blind bit of difference when the money/credit runs out, I'm sure Japanese Uncle can confirm this with relation to Japan 15 years or so ago.
8. Pecker said...
A bubble is a bubble wherever it is and whatever asset class it is.. I heard all these spurious arguments before the NASDAQ went from 5k to 1.5k in less than a year.. that was a bubble and so is this..
9. cyril said...
David - it's more to do with the economy than the amount of space. Detroit is a built up area and so is Hollywood. But Detroit's economy is based in the motor industry which is going downhill fast, and so is the housing market. Apparently hybrid Toyotas are very popular in California.
10. david20040_0 said...
Maybe so, however the UK's population is increasing by 200k a year.
In contrast, Canada, the second biggest country in the world is taking the same amount in.
The big difference between the UK and Canada is that Canada is 60 times bigger than England.
The money / credit maybe running out. But it hasn't run its course quite yet.
11. backseatcrasher said...
David I wish I could agree with you as I've been reading this stuff so long now I'm starting to think it may not happen after all, but your case just doesn't make sense. Just look at the facts around interest rates and house price explosion, they do Correlate. Don't go betting the house on the notion that the house price rise we have seen in the UK is driven by a land shortage. So why did the US go up so much then if they have loads of land, ditto Oz. If that weren't enough try looking at Japan, more densly populated than the UK but they had falling prices. On you comment of massive influx; watch the Polish work force leave when they can't get any more renovation work, add to this the mass evac of long standing Brits. Kiss your religion goodbye, even your cohorts are thinking the party's over, don't be the last man standing if you have some selling to do get on with it cash in while you can, you have probably had a good run no ones going to mock you for getting out just before the peak (if you believe we are still on th way up) you'll be sitting on a fortune of cold hard cash. Leave it any longer and your leveraged bet will go bad.
Hey take it or leave it I'm not going to gloat if you lose, I'm not bitter that you've probably made more money in housing over the past 5 years than I have earnt in 10. Dont forget investments can go down as well as up and housing is being treated as an investment, remember the adage buy low sell high. Time to sell me thinks.
12. Scott said...
David, go on google maps and have a good look at the UK as an overall view. You will see that most of it, even large parts of the south, have not been built on. My flights to and from Edinburgh this year gave me a good view of the never-ending grass deserts that we have on our island.
13. crash bandicoot said...
Another reason for a shortage of houses on the market is that people are reluctant to swallow the loan required to move "up the ladder". People round here are either sitting tight or getting extentions built rather than buying a larger house. The size of the country is irrelevant, there are plenty of houses available - it just needs the price to be right.
14. david20040_0 said...
We do have lots of unused land in the UK.
But and this is a big but, we are not allowed by strict planning regs to build on it.
Even if we build a million homes as the government proposes we will barely keep up.
15. david20040_0 said...
We may have some spare land but the United States and others have far greater areas of land. Also we in the UK are heavily restricted by where and what we can build.
16. paul said...
David, for every thinly populated country like the US with easy planning restrictions, there's another highly populated country like Japan with double the number of UK residents on 15% of the land.
The common theme? They all suffered from credit-led expansion boom and bust with plummeting property prices.
We can postulate and speculate as to why the UK is different ("we wear bowler hats!") but in the end, sometimes the similarities shine through far more.
17. planning4acrash said...
David, you posted on threads which referred to the FACT (research by the Royal Town Planning Institute, that hasn't been denied by housebuilders, they claim they need the banks) that the top 10 housebuilders are sitting on banks of land WITH planning permission capable of meeting the Government's targets
18. Orwell said...
Yes David,
The property builders have 200,000 acres with PP and one can build 3-4 houses per acre if one wants to pile them in and high as the BTLR's do...
19. Symo said...
David. Did you you to be Minister of Public Relations in Iraq a while back? House prices are already falling. On the new estate where I live Barrat are trying to get rid of the UNSOLD homes asap. Also noticed far less workmen per building at the moment too, and I am including for those currently on holiday in that too.