Monday, Aug 20, 2007
One to watch?
BBC: Mexico coast braces for hurricane
This hurricane is set to crash through Cantarell, a field that is already in decline, is one of the biggest in the world, and supplies the US with a few million barrels a day. It looks set to be shut down for 10 days at least, and there is an outside chance of a category 2 hurricane direct hit, which some rig's won't be designed for. If it does hit, we will see what a supply side shock looks like when oil futures are floating around $75/barrel and will see whether, before the peak of the hurricane season, if this has the potential to cause sustained higher prices.
www.theoildrum.com for up to the minute commentry.
Posted by planning4acrash @ 11:19 PM (527 views) Add Comment
13 Comments
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1. planning4acrash said...
"Mexico supplies about 10% of the oil imported into the US, and more than half is produced from the area of the storm track projection". from the oil drum.
2. planning4acrash said...
Hurricane Dean to heighten jitters
"After a harrowing week for the global markets, central bankers were braced for a fresh shock to the financial system from Hurricane Dean".
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article2878798.ece
3. planning4acrash said...
Mexico braces itself for Hurricane Dean - The Times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article2295849.ece
"The US Hurricane Centre said Dean will probably have reached Catagory 5 status by the time it hits the tourist beaches of the Yucatan Peninsular before dawn today. It will then emerge into the Gulf of Campeche, dotted with oil rigs. Forecasters said it was likely to regain strength before hitting Mexico's central Gulf Coast, again as a major hurricane."
"Investors have been watching the progress of Dean for potential impact it may have on the Gulf of Mexico, where oil and gas companies have significant refining and other operations. Over 13,000 workers were evacuated from more than 140 Gulf of Mexico oil platforms."
4. planning4acrash said...
Mexico Braces as Hurricane Strengthens - New York Times
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ddc6863a-4f68-11dc-b485-0000779fd2ac.html
"Oil workers were also on the move. Petróleos de Mexico, the state oil company, said it was evacuating more than 14,000 workers from the southern Gulf of Mexico. By shutting 407 wells, Pemex said it would lose production of 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day."
5. planning4acrash said...
Looks like a second hurricane may be forming, headed possibly towards USA Gulf installations.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200792_model.html
6. planning4acrash said...
Apparently its now the 9th most powerful north atlantic hurricane in history. Looks like the Mexican oil fields will get a category 2 hurricane and there could be rigs that are damaged. The markets have been very complacent, so fallout could take until after the storm passes, if the news is bad.
7. Jj said...
Heard that hurricane Dean has now been re-classified to a category 5 hurricane , the strongest rating.
8. Su said...
Guys, what is likely to happen if natural disasters and wars continue to escalate? What about the probably or possible effects on economy and house prices?
9. Orwell said...
What did the American Indians say about the USA. That although they (the Indians) lived for their future generations and used the land to give it back on trust...The Americans did not and that as a result one day the whole cutlture would be wrapped up and disposed of?
Were they talking of the capitalist system or their complete disregard of the environment or what?
10. inbreda said...
Su - with the arrogance of most 4x4 driving humans the effects of global warming/natural disasters is likely to be the destruction of the human race. At which point I don't think house prices matter a toss. No matter how you look at it it's irrelevant in comparison.
11. Su said...
@Inbreda. I have no doubt that human behaviour will lead to the eventual destuction of the earth as we know it. However, before that day arrives I do wonder what changes to modern society will occur if man-made and natural disasters continue unabated. Suppose oil fields run dry or are destroyed. Suppose famine starts affecting the West. Very real possibilities in my mind.
12. planning4acrash said...
Looks like this could be a non event, likely to be category 1 now, but still too early to call.
13. planning4acrash said...
DEAN HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
OF 70 KT IS AGAIN BASED ON TYPICAL DECAY RATES...AND HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 00Z TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE STRENGTH OF
DEAN. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY INTACT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE
CENTER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND DEAN COULD BE VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE
TIME OF ITS LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF." From www.Oildrum.com