Thursday, Aug 09, 2007
lies, damn lies and statistics
UK Finance: House Prices Start To Fall In London
Beyond the veil of statistics house price have been falling even in london. Has the dagger has finally reached the heart?
Posted by deepak @ 10:31 PM (191 views) Add Comment
22 Comments
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1. david20040_0 said...
This isn't from the news section of Yahoo and some of it claims of falls of 32% in certain types of property are just pure rubbish.
2. wiltshire said...
We've had years of hyperbole whilst the market has gone up. Let's have hyperbole in spades on the way down................
3. planning4acrash said...
But I thought that prices only went up?!
David, it sounds like this guy has seen the breakdown of second quarter land registry data. I hope it is posted on the BBC site soon.
4. planning4acrash said...
But I thought that prices only went up?!
David, it sounds like this guy has seen the breakdown of second quarter land registry data. I hope it is posted on the BBC site soon.
5. david20040_0 said...
Dude the figures are wrong, nowhere in London has it dropped 32% that's complete rubbish.
6. Planning4acrash said...
"Using quarterly data from the Land Registry recording house sales between April and June" Quote from the article. I haven't seen the land registry details yet, but the first quarter showed shaky results for many 'solid' areas. David, do you own properties?! You seem a bit spooked!!
Terraced houses in Camden fell by about 25% in the first quarter http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/ag.stm?t Unless of course if this is an updated stat and they haven't yet updated the blurb at the bottom of the page. David, you really must stop making unresearched hysterical comments. You risk sounding like the Landlord Association. Are you the 'Association' in disguise?! : )
7. paul said...
david, actually that's not true. 32% is a lot and is probably isolated, but I was told by a large London estate agent yesterday that prices are dropping fast, in West London.
START CHEWING KIRSTY - THAT FELT HAT WILL NEED SOFTENING UP!
8. david20040_0 said...
Only yesterday prices were supposed to be going up by 40%
This is an isolated story from an reliable source.
9. geed said...
David....Dude!, why so dismissive, do you really want prices to come down? These are real facts (¨Using quarterly data from the Land Registry recording house sales between April and June¨) and are statistically correct even though essentially in some regions they may not be telling the true picture, unique circumstances etc.. but thats statistics for you.
Think about it, what about all the other statistics you´ve seen portraying a booming housing market. Why did you not treat these statistics with such scepticism? Try and approach your posting with a little more rational thought instead of just rubbishing posts and articles without any reasoning, you seem to be making a habit of it of late.
I admit though I would like to see the LR report for myself.
10. planning4acrash said...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/ag.stm?t
11. deepak said...
David, These prices are based on actual sales of properties. So they can't be wrong.
The complete price rise in UK housing market has been based on arbitary valuation and cheap leverage. Thats all now gone.
To add if you remember there were reports that 250 properties where sold for Covent garden which were bought for 250000 but could only fetch 150000-160000 or so in reposession. This is just an example many more would have happened.
This comparision is based on selling price and not on asking price which you get from Nationwide and halifax.
FYI, if last month asking price went up by .1% you can be rest assured that selling price fell.
Time to wait up to reality. And some people will make hugh losses. There is not always a fool who will pay more than you have.
12. planning4acrash said...
This was the best I could find.
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/hpir0707.pdf
13. enuii said...
It will come out in the wash over the weekend, now which of the Sunday papers would dare take the lead on such a story?
14. david20040_0 said...
Yes, I want prices to crash, severely.
However, this report is inaccurate and no other news organisation has picked this up.
You guys dismiss outright stories saying house prices will rise 40% but you believe as fact without question stories which say they have dropped by 40%. You dare not question it.
No other news organisation has reported this.
Yahoo News have not even supplied this, it is just in the comments section.
15. planning4acrash said...
David, see my most recent post on the home page. These stats are not made up.
16. Planning4acrash said...
Published on the BBC. Probably won' http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/counties/html/county37.stm
17. planning4acrash said...
David, see my most recent post on the home page. These stats are not made up. The BBC have published these stats.
18. Orwell said...
Camden and Westminster seem to have been worst hit.
19. hedger said...
http://www.fool.co.uk/news/property-home/2007/08/09/house-prices-start-to-fall-in-london.aspx?source=ioowftxt0010011
20. Irishboy said...
I live in Chelsea. The area is goign downhill fast. At night it is like Animal Farm (car theft, noisy neigbours at 2AM, etc).
21. Chiilli said...
As the article states, the volume of sales of up to -32% drop in prices cannot be taken seriously. So the 32% drop is a real figure, but not representative of the whole of london, or even of camden.
You guys are not arguing over the same issue.
22. dugmug said...
David say, "However, this report is inaccurate and no other news organisation has picked this up. You dare not question it. No other news organisation has reported this."
I haven't seen the actual figures so I can't comment on whether this report is inaccurate or not. If you are telling us that you have looked at the same Land Registry data regarding actual, recorded sales, and that your sums show something different, then fine - by all means share with the group what your figures show and explain to us where this other chap went wrong with his sums. Can you do this? No, you haven't even tried have you. Your argument seems to be that anything that hasn't been reported anywhere else is untrue!! What nonsense!! I guess the Watergate scandal wasn't true either when the Washington Post reported it, it didn't become true until someone else reported it too!!?? We understand that you are pessimistic about the future of UK house prices, but this sort of illogical and ill-conceived nonsense is the best you can do to evidence your point of view, I would suggest your point of view needs a re-think, sharpish.
"You guys dismiss outright stories saying house prices will rise 40% but you believe as fact without question stories which say they have dropped by 40%."
So, we dismiss stories that try to FORECAST the future (the future being something no-one can know for sure and so is always up for debate), but believe stories that talk about ACTUAL THINGS THAT HAVE ALREADY HAPPENED. Oh yes, well donw, you've really caught us out there, what fools we look! Not!