Friday, Aug 10, 2007
Its the quarterly house price crash feeding frenzy time, have fun!
BBC News - Permanent Special Feature (linked from HPC homepage also): Land Registry Data, England Only so far (APRIL - JUNE)
The BBC are yet to update Scotland, Wales and N-Ireland on their website, but they should follow soon. Highlights so far, from a brief nosey:
Only 0.4% RISE FOR THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE in the last quarter.
Bath and NE Somerset down 1.3%. Cornwall and Isle of Wight down 0.5%. Detached properties in Oxford down 26%.
London: No detached properties sold in five London Boroughs for three months, including Islington and Kensington and Chelsea, the latter saw 0% rise as a result, either this is a glitch, or a credit crash is hitting the oil barons! 25% fall in Camen terraces, Camden experiencing a 3.6% fall for all properties.
Many places still booming, but the 0.4% growth stat for the whole and some interesting falls make this a good read.
Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:32 AM (207 views) Add Comment
16 Comments
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1. planning4acrash said...
Looks like we've caught this just as it was published. None of the national papers have got hold of it yet,. I wonder if it will be in the Metro or Evening Standard this morning?!
2. Matt said...
Oops!
3. European-bear said...
Don't worry....its just the usual seasonal spring bounce!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4. European-bear said...
Land registry data
Scotland as a whole!!!
Average price 139,836, change in quater -2.2%, sales 32,787....
This is for the early spring selling season, but now for the whole of Scotland the annualised rate (4 x- 2.2) =- 8.8%.(this is approximately NOW, not change since 1 year ago)......just make sure you go for offers "under" rather than "over" in Scotland...some highlights....
Edinburgh, City 194,078 -2.5% 9.9% 3,198 (yes MINUS 2.5% for the spring selling season)
Glasgow City 134,141 -2.1% 7.9% 4,174 (yes MINUS 2.1%)
Fife 123,161 -2.2% 15.7% 2,256
This is probably the most significant as 1. It is for a whole and very big region. 2. It is on a very large turnover (so no individual sales to skew the figures). 3. Scottish selling practices (offers "over") are extremely inflationary. Recent BTL lanlords in Scotland will be scraping the brown stuff off their pants....
Elsewhere there is no evidence (yet) of the start of the crash...slowdown, but no big regional decreases....except Northamptonshire, where there have been truely spectacular losses in EVERY segment of thze market......
Northamptonshire £179,499 -15.6% 7% 4583 - huge loss on sales of over 4500 houses! Down 15.6% in one quater!!!!!!!!
first average price over whole market, second % loss in quater, third tunover
5. george monsoon said...
In my area, it says average price 150k for a terrace and for miles around they are on the market for anything between 100 and 120k , so these "average figures" may not be an exact science.
Overall though, it looks like we have started going downhill.
6. planning4acrash said...
Multiply these falls by 4 and you get the annualised figure if they continue to fall at the same rate for a whole year!
7. planning4acrash said...
Oops, Wales is in. It seems that many areas in Wales made up some of their losses from the first quarter, but there were also some areas with falls.
8. Nathan said...
A couple of weeks ago when I checked the BBC site I looked at the stats for City of Westminster and I remember it reading that average price for al properties were up 9.9% for the previous quarter but down 0.7% for the year. It seems that for the new last quarter saw sales prices up 7.9% and annual prices up 12.9%. I'm not sure exactly how to read these sorts of statistics. Does anyone think the average prices were dropping by double digits five quarters ago or that so few properties were on the market and being sold that the change in the last quarter would shift the annual percentage up so high?
9. Su said...
Actually, I noticed this on the HPC link a few days ago so its been around for at least a wee while. Can anyone explain the Northamptonshire figures to me? Click on East Midlands and N/shire shows -15.6% for the quarter, but when I click on N/shire all the breakdowns are in positive figures.
10. night said...
Just to point out that these are the same figures everyone was discussing yesterday. The numbers match up with the article on yahoo! http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/09082007/35/house-prices-start-fall-london.html.
Incidentally, I figured out why the above story was on the yahoo news pages. MotleyFool.co.uk have an RSS feed; yahoo is just pulling that story from the RSS feed and using it in one of their pages. You can see the original article at:
http://www.fool.co.uk/news/property-home/2007/08/09/house-prices-start-to-fall-in-london.aspx
And the RSS feed for fool.co.uk is:
http://www.fool.co.uk/help/headlines/feeds/index.aspx?id=foolwatch&format=rss2
Anyway, good to see the same data appearing from a (more) reputable source.
11. yoyo1 said...
Click on the "overview" to see only 0.2% rise across the country. Prices across the Nation have gone nowhwere despite the hype, the headlines and the favourable time of year. Purchasing property is risky business!
12. planning4acrash said...
They must have updated the stats since last night, because it said 0.4% growth just after midnight. Compounded, 0.2% is just 1.6% over a year! And we don't yet have stats that cover the credit crunch period that's unfolding. The last quarter of the year should show negative growth for sure, and maybe even the third quarter will show that.
13. Orwell said...
How economically speaking has this happended, the fact that inflation is rising and yet house prices falling ?
14. dugmug said...
David (aka Doubting Thomas)...now it's been reported somewhere else, so we presume you believe it? Speculation about the future is always up for debate and disagreement, but disagreeing with factual information about things that have already happened is just plain desperate.
You do WANT prices to go down, so I can only presume you are so defensive because you are scared of believing any signs of a crash in case it is postponed again and you get dissappointed - it's a type of self-preservation? The problem is that this is no more realistic a way to look at life than the guy with rose tinted glasses on; you just have black tinted glasses on instead. You have to take as balanced a view as possible if you are going to make the best decisions, because life is a mix of good and bad, so you must trust yourself more to weigh up ALL the evidence objectively rather than ruling things out for philosophical, rather than logical, reasons.
15. paul said...
And the BBC remains stony silent ...
16. david20040_0 said...
dugmug:
""You do WANT prices to go down, so I can only presume you are so defensive because you are scared of believing any signs of a crash in case it is postponed again and you get dissappointed - it's a type of self-preservation?""
Yes, I have seen false dawns so many times I don't believe them anymore.
I desperately want them to crash and burn though (apologies to Savage Garden)