Wednesday, Aug 29, 2007
Could the US open a third war?
The Raw Story: US preparing 'massive' military attack against Iran
The paper, "Considering a war with Iran: A discussion paper on WMD in the Middle East" – written by well-respected British scholar and arms expert Dr. Dan Plesch, Director of the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy of the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) at the University of London, and Martin Butcher, a former Director of the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) and former adviser to the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament – was exclusively provided to RAW STORY late Friday under embargo.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 04:57 PM (737 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. Pie said...
Bull.
The States is running out of money fast and the population doesn't have the patience with Iraq, let alone another war. Sure there are neo-cons gunning for Iran and they sure don't like the place, but it will go nowhere. These guys are spending too much time in a little bubble.
2. harold said...
"The study concludes that the US has made military preparations to destroy Iran’s WMD"
Err... what WMDs would those be? The ones used as a pretext for war with Iraq perhaps? At some point, the public in the West, i.e., US and UK need to wake up and realise that we are the bad guys.
3. whiteknight said...
One of the only ways out of the problem.
However, it would be folly. I believe Russia uttered the sentence "do not attack Iran." a while back.
China, I believe, "mess around with us and we will crash the dollar."
It would be the height of believing your own PR to attempt such an operation either outright or on a false flage event.
So terrible would be the likely consequences i doubt even factions in the US would sanction it.
4. Alan said...
@WhiteKnight
If the US have been warned off by the Chinese, they will have to back down publicly. What better to bolster President Bush's popularity than an attack on the Axis of Evil?
Just keep watching those Hollywood epic battle dramas...don't you realise the US always wins in the end and the hero hooks up with the lead actress.
As for me, I'm out buying gold Krugerrands....
5. talking rot said...
I haven't even bothered reading the article - it is utter rubbish.
Consider the number of US troops around the world which are tied up on operations. So that would be 155K in Iraq - all nicely worn out as they are having to serve a 15-month tour. Given that 3 times as many troops are needed to sustain combat operations, to sustain 155K you need around 465K. This is why Bush's surge is not sustainable and expect a drop in troop numbers to around 110K next spring (Apr). Also consider the 20K in Korea; 100K in Germany; a few tens of thousands dotted around the globe in places such as Diego Garcia, Cuba etc. US Army is 540K - ish.
Operations against Iran are not possible unless a major commitment is ended and then, logistics take hold. At the earliest, the very earliest, the US could not mount land operations against Iran until 2010.
Forget the US Navy - Iranian's live on land not water and do not have much of a Navy anyway.
Also forget air power - whether land-based or sea-based. Why? Did you ever wonder during Kosovo how we could destroy more Serb tanks and more Serb anti-aircraft missile sites, (SAM), then the Serbs had? There is a certain model of Panasonic (or could be Phillips - can't remember know) microwave that emits radiation at the same frequency as the Serb-owned SAMs. This is why spending tens of thousands of dollars/GBP etc on radar seeking missiles can be an expensive mistake; and why the Serbs had lots of BBQs just after the war. The destroyed "tanks" were models where the thermal imaging picture to replicate a tank was generated by the engine/exhaust system of an old tractor. Can't remember how the Serbs generated the thermal picture to replicate heat on the tracks though. Unless you are fighting an utter, utter muppet, air power can be rather limited since you need to know where the target is AND hit it; this is difficult when travelling at high speeds.
The US is not in a position to attack Iran. I recommend all articles suggesting a US attack on Iran are discounted.
6. Red Kharma said...
TR - Since you haven't read the article, it might be worth pointing out that it is talking about long-range bombing of infrastructure sites without deploying ground troops at all. Bush will do this before he leaves. I hope I am wrong but believe it is a certainty.
7. Orwell said...
Interesting because arguably this is the way our empire ended , over deployment of troops and over spending that trounced the economy.
Deja Vous?
8. Darrude said...
Do Iran have vast amounts of Oil?
If so they are a target.
As for blowing up microwave's, Eurofighter is due a good challenge, and if it's war in 2010, JSF can blow up some combination ovens while the pilot's shout whooo ooooh!
Rant over!
9. Tickock said...
Rot,
I recommend that you read the report before assuming what it says and 'rubbishing' it ;)
Makes our 'withdrawal' from Basra seem rather urgent indeed.
10. harold said...
" I recommend all articles suggesting a US attack on Iran are discounted."
I think that would be a mistake, "well-respected British scholar and arms expert" (no scoffing at the back, please) Dr. Dan Plesch et al are deliberately trying to create a political climate in which attacking Iran is somehow acceptable, i.e., they are peddling the notion that pre-emptive war against a country that has done no harm to us directly is viable and morally acceptable. We must vehemently reject these people for what they are: extremists.
11. uncle tom said...
If Dubya goes any further down this road he will be hopelessly on his own - he might even face a mutiny..
..but he's not a clever guy....
12. lvmreader said...
Great post @Sold2Rent1
Good to see people linking the greater GeoPolitical situation with the Economy.
Not even a month ago, certain folk would ridicule anyone talking about anythig except the specific specious reports on what the Daily Mail said House Prices would do/were doing.
One must understand where this all comes from.