Wednesday, Aug 22, 2007
Beware of the pundits
FT: Housing boom will not end in a crash, says Harvard
This article from only a year ago claims that there will be 'stagnation' in the US housing market.
The justification for the soft landing are :
1) Immigration and house hold formation.
2) Low unemployment.
3) Historically low interest rates.
Where have we heard this before????
Posted by davros @ 09:07 AM (521 views) Add Comment
7 Comments
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1. Andrew S said...
Retsinas has been wrong about everything so far....why should anyone believe him now? he has been nothing but a cheerleader for the bubble. People look at the word "Harvard" after his name and think he must be preaching the gospel.
2. ontheotherhand said...
Great post Davros. Good effort
3. Soldintime said...
Even if the crash does not come, I am out. Too expensive here and no good services. Time for a change.
4. Loneranger said...
Brilliant! These justifications have been hammered at us by RICS, Halifax et al for the past 6 months and can easily be used as a barometer for the shape of things to come in the UK. Sub-prime meltdown over here will happen in my opinion, with interest only deals being taken up by this sector in droves. Once the credit crunch really kicks in, it will get very messy out there.....
5. uncle chris said...
Nice bit of research - this will prove useful in my arguments against 'blinkered' friends who insist this time will be different - more out of desperation I would imagine.
6. Dr. Keith Anderson said...
Excellent post. It's often amusing to look back on what so-called experts were saying just before everything changed. And not a mention of sub-prime mortgages anywhere in the article.
7. fahrenheit451 said...
Nice one, now we add in the effects of increasing interest rates ...
boom badda boom ... crash