Thursday, Jul 26, 2007

She canna take any more, Captain!

Bloomberg: Yen Advances After Equity Declines Prompt Carry Trade Unwinding

The yen rose against all 16 of the most actively traded currencies as global equities fell and traders bought back yen used to finance investments in other countries.

Posted by royston @ 03:10 PM (174 views) Add Comment

19 Comments

1. sold 2 rent 1 said...

When gold and the USD fall together you know a liquidity crisis is evolving.
Everything that can be sold gets sold when the crisis hits full-blown.
Still a long way to go.
September/October for the main event.

Thursday, July 26, 2007 03:29PM Report Comment
 

2. dohousescrashinthewoods said...

I'm tempted to agree, Autumn still feels like the real hit-the-fan point but I don't know why.

Thursday, July 26, 2007 03:40PM Report Comment
 

3. planning4acrash said...

I think Autumn will be decidedly chillier, but reckon that the fan will be clean until about January, when it will suddenly Shudder to a halt caked in smelly stuff!

Thursday, July 26, 2007 03:42PM Report Comment
 

4. sold 2 rent 1 said...

Historically all the big crashes have happened in the Autumn. 1929, 1987.

The biggest single factor here is what happens to Japan's IR in August/September.
China is hiking rates quite frequently now.
The Swiss carry trade is pretty much over.

Japan is the last source of liquidity and when it starts raising IRs will finish this cycle off.

Thursday, July 26, 2007 03:57PM Report Comment
 

5. royston said...

Sorry to disagree - but I've got a very strong feeling that tomorrow is going to be a very, very Black Friday!

Thursday, July 26, 2007 04:21PM Report Comment
 

6. sara said...

I was inclined to agree with the Autumn consensus. I think it has a lot to do with the fact that much of Europe still disappears for a holiday at the beach during the summer months, but now I'm wondering what Royston knows?

Thursday, July 26, 2007 04:48PM Report Comment
 

7. tyrellcorporation said...

Show us your hunch Royston!

Thursday, July 26, 2007 04:50PM Report Comment
 

8. nopensionnohouse said...

What with this and the change in climate we should be starting our summer by about Autumn time both metaphorically and erm, sunscreen-aphorically!

Thursday, July 26, 2007 05:19PM Report Comment
 

9. robh said...

Oh Royston, don't be mean

tell us your hunch pleeeese :)

we can keep a secret

Thursday, July 26, 2007 05:55PM Report Comment
 

10. harold said...

It all going t*ts up: copper is down over 25% today!!!!

Thursday, July 26, 2007 05:58PM Report Comment
 

11. Scott said...

Royston, I doubt your long awaited 30 year depression/apocalypse is going to start tomorrow.

Thursday, July 26, 2007 06:02PM Report Comment
 

12. Canotwaitoleavengland said...

Clever Royston. This is how rumours start. How many people read views on this site?

Kickstart eh, set a date and it seems real. Then people trade.

Thursday, July 26, 2007 06:39PM Report Comment
 

13. denzil said...

The dow as not looking too bright so far.
Harold, 25%?? Are you sure.

Royston, there is a conviction in your words. Do you have a prediction for where the FTSE will end up by close Friday?

Thursday, July 26, 2007 07:29PM Report Comment
 

14. confused76 said...

Copper down 0.1% just now
Lead down 0.5%
crude up 2 - 3 $/bbl

All is fine out there, end of the world is postponed :))

I still think UK housing is crashing, but this is not world misery guys... there is a lot of growth in emerging markets, the world still spins with crude at $75/bbl.

Thursday, July 26, 2007 07:42PM Report Comment
 

15. tyrellcorporation said...

'The steep decline in stocks led the New York Stock Exchange to impose trading curbs which restrict large-block sales when a stock is falling.' Reuters

Could well see a continued rout tomorrow...

Has a stock trader suddenly spotted a naked man wearing a crown? ...watch this space!

Thursday, July 26, 2007 07:48PM Report Comment
 

16. harold said...

Denzil, quite right - serves me right for glancing at the nonsense that is the BBC commodities statistics, which earlier today showed copper down 26.5%. Currently copper is slightly down; lead is c. 4% down (allegedly).

Thursday, July 26, 2007 08:41PM Report Comment
 

17. sold 2 rent 1 said...

I only use BBC prices for stocks and currencies.
For commodities go to Bloomberg.

Gold is down $13 nicely.
It should be ready to be bought towards the end of the year after the BIG ONE.

Thursday, July 26, 2007 08:57PM Report Comment
 

18. harold said...

Thanks s2r1.

Thursday, July 26, 2007 09:22PM Report Comment
 

19. Ck One said...

Must admit I was pretty much sold on the idea of a Oct 07 heavy global stock correction 6 weeks ago, but with finance drying up in the credit markets at a pace that is even surprising to a bear like me, I think it's going to happen before we get to Oct... The Yen carry trade is also disappearing fast....

Unfortunately looks like I might lose some cash on the small holding of stocks that I have not yet cleared down, probably dump them tomorrow... but at least with my £500 betonmarkets.com cover positions I should get a pay out of £4,000 if we see 5,400 on FTSE, 11,500 on Dow and S&P at 1,250 by end of Dec 07. Do any of you guys think we'll see these indices levels before year end?

Thursday, July 26, 2007 09:57PM Report Comment
 

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