Friday, Jul 13, 2007
More falls in the North as London out of step
Acadametrics: FT HOUSE PRICE INDEX
The latest FT House Price Index shows that house prices rose by 0.7% in June and by 9.0% over the past 12 months. The Regional Data Table highlights a sharp reduction in monthly house price inflation in the North; a gain of 1.1% in January has been followed by consecutive falls in the average price during March, April and May and we have seen falls for two consecutive months in the East Midlands and Wales. The West Midlands, by contrast, after two successive months of decline recorded a modest increase in May (0.6%). At the other end of the scale, Greater London prices have risen by at least 1% in seven of the last twelve months.
Posted by uncle chris @ 11:17 AM (154 views) Add Comment
1 Comment
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1. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Hmm, graphing the headline increase figures, there was a dip but it does seem to be trending up, which doesn't support the consesnus here.
The two arguments to counter this most cited on this site are:
1. an uptrend is to be expected before things fall over
2. credit is tightening so less people at the bottom of the market can trade, skewing the average upwards.
Given the gushes of bad news, the CDO / US sub-prime contagion, the fact that the number of missed mortgage payments has almost doubled, etc. etc. I would say the bigger picture looks shaky.
This index doesn't seem to fit that broader picture, but we should note it as it is too easy to get lost in your own paradigm and ignore evidence to the contrary - after all, we'd be the first to chime that banks, sheeple, BTLs and the rest have their fingers in their ears, singing la-la-la-la-al-la-la in the face of mounting evidence.
Keep watching. If we're wrong, so be it. Overall I'm tempted to believe this is a natural oscillation and could well be an artefact of increased activity - people selling up, BTL clearing portfolios, but I'd rather be realistic than make the data fit my view.