Friday, Jul 20, 2007
House prices to grow by 7% in 2007
The Landlord Association: House prices to grow by 7% in 2007
The HBOS Economic forecast focuses on the prospects for the UK housing market in 2007. The forecast incorporates a range of official statistics as well as information from the Halifax House Price Index...
Posted by the landlord assocation @ 07:17 PM (226 views) Add Comment
20 Comments
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1. royston said...
Reminds me of the Morgan Stanley forecast for the technology, media and telecommunications sector........at the end of 1999!
2. Fm said...
Pack it in, Dean! It's over!
3. planning4acrash said...
Good, because property prices will have further to fall and overshoot the long term average to a greater extreme. Remember that this will fuel consumption with more money taken from re-mortgaging, therefore pushing up inflation and interest rates further. Full blown road crash 2008 as houses swerve into the central reservation at full speed. House prices were below 100k in the yr 2000. Exactly where they will be by 2010, putting the average house at where they should be, around 3.5x the average family income.
4. planning4acrash said...
Good, because property prices will have further to fall and overshoot the long term average to a greater extreme. Remember that this will fuel consumption with more money taken from re-mortgaging, therefore pushing up inflation and interest rates further. Full blown road crash 2008 as houses swerve into the central reservation at full speed. House prices were below 100k in the yr 2000. Exactly where they will be by 2010, putting the average house at where they should be, around 3.5x the average family income.
5. Davros said...
No-one can tell us how much houseprices will grow or drop in 2007. It's a guess, based on what appears, nothing more than extrapolating the previous couple of months. Truth is, no-one has got a clue, so their opinion is worth precisely nothing.
6. dobber said...
Dream on,
And Bear Stearns said there were no problems with CDO's?
7. denzil said...
The original article from firstrung has already been posted!
8. Ilejustwait said...
Ive just tried the single house brick test, and i can honestly say that it comes down alot quiker than i can keep it up high,
physics ses it all really
maths does to but you need the ( correct figures ) !!
9. planning4acrash said...
:trout:
Lets make sure every re-posted article is exposed, good work denzil.
10. planning4acrash said...
:trout:
Lets make sure every re-posted article is exposed, good work denzil.
11. planning4acrash said...
:trout:
Lets make sure every re-posted article is exposed, good work denzil.
12. planning4acrash said...
:trout:
Lets make sure every re-posted article is exposed, good work denzil.
13. enuii said...
Landlord: 7% must be a real disappointment when double digit growth was forecast for 2007 at the start of the tear, congratulations on linking to your own site again as it is getting quite boring.
14. wiltshire said...
There's loads of interesting News Blog items that never get any comments, can we PLEASE just ignore the rubbish this bloke posts??? It's the sub-prime equivalent of interesting and I for one will no longer bother to acknowledge his blatant claptrap.
15. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Landlord, allow me to link to this site, rather than my own, and recommend you read this:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/07/blog-therell-be-floods-of-tears-5466.php
Please read it and think carefully about your position and the influence you may have on others.
16. Randomkevlar said...
excellent work planning4acrash and denzil, :trout: any person who either posts an article not from an original source or more importantly if the article has already been posted on this site, p4acrash are you by chance a alternative reality gamer?
:trout:
17. planning4acrash said...
So, if you do get 7% house price growth, and interest rates go up to 6% soon, Interest rates (IR's) will only need to go up 0.5% and house price growth down by 0.5% for IR's to be neutral. Not sure if this is a consensus, but, could we state that the HPC begins for real once IR's get to be neutral and become negative? When IR's are neutral, house price growth only just covers IR repayments. Therefore, house price growth is negative for a borrower when IR's are larger than house price growth. In laymans terms, it means that the yields from capital appreciation start to go into reverse. IR's are fully negative once house price falls fall so far below the IR charges that house price falls in real terms couteract capital repayments, mortgage arrangement fees, etc. This point should be reached once house price growth is about 2% lower than IR's. In many ways then, you have two thresholds, (1) neutral IR's in terms of house price growth only (2) neutral IR's in terms of house price growth and capital repayments.
We could see this as soon as the autumn and it would be self reinforcing, because negative yields will do what is being observed in the FT, in the following post http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/07/blog-therell-be-floods-of-tears-5466.php where institutional investors flight from mortgage based investments, which have negative yields towards the safety of government bonds (yielding about 5+%) and gold, etc. Unexperienced investors will hang on too long, but be swept by a tide if overly high gearing that does not give them a buffer for shocks leaves them exposed. BTL's will try to put up rents to cover the losses, but it is unlikely, given that rents are negotiated once a year, that they will be able to react fast enough and, in anycase, it will be extremely difficult to increase rents in an environment of falling house prices, in real or nominal terms. Homeowners with spare rooms are less exposed because a single room renting at £80/wk will cover the costs of approx 4% increase in IR's on a 100k mortgage. BTL's will find it very hard to raise rents by £5-10/week/room, let alone anymore that may be required.
18. Bert said...
This guy reported on his website an equally 'unbiassed' assessment for housing outlook just the other day. I'm impressed that he's been able to keep up the high standard of impartial analysis and rigorous economic assessment that we've come to know and respect.....
19. Bert said...
......I'm going to start a new association....."The Rent Lords Association". Anyone wanna join?
20. semi-detached-from-reality said...
Hey, first time I visit for a week or so and now we are reduced to this:
>>>>>>>>>all this red triangle nonsense>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Seems someone has hijacked the site. It's bad enough already on slooow NZ dial-up trying to get my fix and continue learning something off a great site. One post had 83 replies. Wasn't impressed too much there by one person's arrogance and others I have a vast respect for attempting to back him off, make him repent and see the error of his ways.
Landlord, what do you want?
Why are you doing this? It costs you time, your time should be money. This doesn't gain you anything. No returns here, you don't even preach to the converted. We will never see it your way; we believe we are right - from the heart.
What is your hidden agenda?
What ulterior motives do you possess?
Who do you represent?
Who is pulling your strings?