Monday, Jul 16, 2007
House price crash looking unlikely, unfortunately guys!
The Landlord Association: House price crash? Not likely!
New figures from Halifax and Nationwide indicate house prices grew in June at an annual rate of more than 10 per cent...That's solid by any standard - and will reassure many of us the good times will continue to roll....
Posted by the landlord assocation @ 11:33 AM (196 views) Add Comment
63 Comments
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1. Scott said...
Figures from people with vested interests cannot be trusted. Your house only goes up in value because some other sucker will pay more for it, who in turn will flip it to some other sucker for more. The prices are now too high, the interest rates are creeping up and only 1 in 5 graduates will get a graduate-entry job and the average person is now 10k in debt, the country is 1.3bn in debt. In short, we are running out of suckers.
2. royston said...
These aggregate market figures create a false impression. They don't compare like with like. Banks and building societies have restricted lending to the bottom end of the market who buy the cheapest houses. This distorts the statistics. Compare top-end with top-end, mid-market with mid-market, and bottom-end with bottom-end. You will see a clear fall within each category - currently running at over 5% annualised.
3. Scott said...
I would like the views and backgrounds of everyone in this forum so I can write a book, "The Casualties of Capitalism".
4. confused76 said...
Landlord
Let us try to have a polite discussion today.
1. You are reporting well known Nationwide and Halifax information from last week, i guess. But can you please post the actual link, instead of the vague "telegraph.co.uk"
2. Do you know that the UK commercial property funds, Jupiter, New Stars, etc., all posted more than 18% annual returns over the last 3 years? How can you explain that these funds are now losing between 3% and 12% in value since January?
3. Are you aware that the FSA requires advisors to warn investors that "past results are not indication of future returns". Even if that does not apply to your organization, I am sure you will want to comply nonetheless
Best regards
5. converted lurker said...
Can I politely ask you to provide the correct link/source in future? correct me if I'm mistaken, but is this not simply a ripped off article from one of the Sundays?
6. the landlord assocation said...
Confused....
I am simply posting a news piece and have no opinions on this what-so-ever.
I can only tell you truthfully (and politely as I would rather have a sensible and polite debate with you) that I speak to investors all day, every day. The feeling is (and I ask everyone) that house prices will likely stabalise. It's easy for one news piece to paint a positive picture and another to paint a negative picture.
The truth is that both accounts are relevant. It simply depends on which way the pendulum swings which nobody can predict.
Our investors are comfortable that even though there could be another 2 or 3 interest rate rises (maybe more but not likely) the outlook is still promising. Our investors are not as prolific as they were say 6 months ago but that is not because of a house price crash fear. It is because there is no point buying at a peak if a peak will sustain for some time. Thats the general feeling from the front line anyway.
I believe that house prices will fluctuate between -10% - +10% from it's current point over the next 2 years. The Bank of England will likely maintain interest rates but if they are to help FTB's which the government seems keen on doing then I think they may even fall slightly.
What do you think on this assumption/forecast?
Besr regards
7. Davros said...
Well I for one have never heard of a boom and flat.
We keep being told it's different this time, but we were told that the last time.
What do we make of the fact that prices arn't stabalising, but falling, in several regions of the UK?
8. Pmaupoil said...
> ... that house prices will likely stabalise
A friend of mine is a civil engineer working closely with the big real estate developers and he told me they all believe that prices will stabilise as you are saying (even though most of them already lost 20% of their share price...). Fundamentally, you may come with such conclusion although I think there are too many current pessimistic indicators but technically this is just pure derision! I have never ever seen a more or less flat pattern especially in the property sector...
9. uncle chris said...
LA, My wife and I are off today to put in an application for a 3-bed 3-reception room detached house in a rural area not far from Wrexham (N. Wales). Similar properties in the area are for sale at well over £300,000. Assuming an interest only best-deal mortgage from Alliance & Leicester, the repayments on £300,000 would start at £1600 and rise to £1950 after 2 years. Yet the landlords of the house we are looking at are asking for £600 per month, which includes a gardener, buildings insurance and maintenance. I would therefore like to ask an opinion from you (go on jump off the fence) as to how BTL makes any form of sense these days?
10. Mark said...
to landlord assoc
what utter rubbish we sold 17 properties off last year, there are going to be hard times ahead and this BS is the only thing keeping money in the system, the party is over, get over it..
11. uncle chris said...
p.s. by the way, my current landlord is great, so we are not all anti-landlords. We rent a 2 bedroom barn conversion in North-East Wales for £500, including council tax, water, gardener, all the fruit and veg we want from his garden and maintenance of course. Again, an interest only mortgage on this would be at least twice the amount we currently pay, and our rent hasn't gone up for the past 3 years. Renting is definitely the way forward, so, LA, keep up the good work and keep those wannabe landlords subsidising our living expenses :-)
12. chilli said...
landlord association
So what these guys are suggesting is that BTL'rs are happy with the idea of having 250 grand sitting in an investement offering a rental yield of? 5-6%? Perhaps they have a 80% mortgage on that at 200 000. And their mortage repayments are sitting at 7.5%.
(I've obtained my figures from www.fool.co.uk, and rental yields from the telegraph for year 2006) I'm also taking into account that hte average equity for housholds in the uk is 48k. (obviously simplifying a lot here.)
So 5-6% of 250 000 = 15000 pounds.
Cost of mortgage - 7.5% of 200 000 (i picked the right numbers here obviously) = 15 000.
Profit = ZERO!!!
And an opportunity cost on their 50k that is not generating anything of 5000 pounds.
And all of this isn't taking into account maintenance, insurance, stamp duty (if they bought this year), and admin hassle of finding tenants and generally letting these issue cloud your life.
Are my figures off in any way?
Granted, the extreme luxury part of the uk martket doesn't follow these rules at all.
If you want my opinion, BTLs will try to raise rentals to meet interest rates. What happens next it determined by their ability to do so. They are just like stock traders. They hate to take losses, so they will absorb as much as possible, until there is no hope, and then there will be a rush for the door.
13. confused76 said...
Sir Landlord,
I will certainly continue our discussion thread, but please a bit later today.
Can I ask your opinion on the direction of rentals...
Just look at this example in St Albans:
http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.aspx?edid=00&salerent=1&pid=738967&agentid=03010
this property was on the market at 1500 pcm (gardener included?!?) please see note in the property description.
The price was reduced to 1300pcm even before the property became available (which will be at the end of July)
This is a typical Let-to-Buy example. I know the story behind it.
Isnt it possible that fellow Landlords are still a bit deluded on returns, and will want to downsize when they realize that easy money has been made already?
14. Andy said...
TLA : am confused in what your trying to say here -
"I am simply posting a news piece and have no opinions on this what-so-ever." - Then you give us your opinion -
Talking about investors, who are obviously going to give a positive edge else they wouldn't be investing in the first place - (do you speak to non investors to get a wider viewpoint?) - nothing much learned here.
"The truth is that both accounts are relevant. It simply depends on which way the pendulum swings which nobody can predict." - nothing much learned here - then you give us a prediction after the investor stuff again
"I believe that house prices will fluctuate between -10% - +10% from it's current point over the next 2 years." - Thats a bit like saying I bet the brown horse wins the next grand national.
Is there anything relevant in your communication? Have you ever thought of working with Russel Grant and Mystic Meg?
Can you be a bit braver, more assertive in your opinions. Your comments are appreciated but please try to solidify them so I can really get into the mechanics of your thoughts.
With respect,
Andy.
15. Bert said...
The LA article only seems to look at supply and demand issues and is nowhere near a complete picture. However, lets forgive them and put the overwhelming majority of economic variables to one side for the moment and examine the last post. This puts this position quite neatly: If there weren't enough houses, then why are rents so low compared to monthly mortgage repayments? There is clearly no housing crisis because there are clearly enough houses to go round. Whether we agree with BTLers or not is irrelevent. They (and the other rental sectors) appear to supply an adequate number of dwellings to meet market demands - rents have not been forever been accelerating upwards for the past 10-years - unlike prices. However, this point is not understood by the London obsessed, metropolitan-left mafia running the country at the moment. They think (wrongly in my view) that there is a crisis and therefore that it should be managed / brought under control / nationalised / whatever. (They also assume that they are competent to manage, nationalise, etc, etc - an assumption which I don't necessarily agree with). If things wern't bad enough already, the prospect of Government interference in the issue of housing supply can mean only one thing - disaster and I draw no comfort from this whatsoever. Personally, I believe it's easier to manage climate change than the housing market - but that's probably just me.
16. the landlord assocation said...
Guys,
You are now opening up a huge can of worms which I was trying to avoid - lol.
A good deal of landlords are paying a shortfall between mortgage repayments and rental yield. Property values are still expected to rise 10% over the next 12 months (not by your HPC bloggers of course) and so a shortfall is a long term gain. Even so, most landlords have made such a massive profit thy can afford take stock or loss (albeit a loss on profit, not a loss on investment).
I, for one, am in no rush to 'sell-up'. I own my properties and every 7 years or so have witnessed some form of property boom or another. The booms have always outnumbered the crashes and so I am happy to stick it out for the long term as my investment will almost certainly pay off.
Regards
17. Andy said...
p.s. theres two eyes in vision - and theres two i's in Landlord Association.
18. speculatorone said...
Not relevant, but I wonder how much money this website is costing our employers? I for one am spending considerable time each day reading and tracking the blog's.............
19. maddison said...
Not everyone on this forum are doom mongers, myself included. It is my view that a small correction is on the way 5-10% but I doubt a full blown crash. The only thing that will precipitate that are lots of forced sales. Forced sales are usually caused by unemployment and unless the whole economy is in trouble of which there is little evidence then I cant see it happening. High interest rates in the late eighties and early nineties caused unemployment and that is what killed the housing market.
20. paul said...
Who or what exactly is "The Landlord Association"?
I mean, we see this person coming over here at what is quite frankly the eleventh hour in the whole debate, proclaiming "I AM THE DIRECTOR OF THE LANDLORD ASSOCIATION", but what differentiates you from a lone, rather desperate little frustrated Buy To Let Bandwagoner that sees his fortune dissolving away, and is desperate to counter the growing tsunami waves of bad news in this sector, with half truths and naiively optimistic misinformation.
What exactly is your organization again? Is it recognised by ANY body other than well ... you?
21. Planning4acrash said...
Erm, did anybody notice that mr landlord admitted the possibility of a 10% fall? A 10% fall is a crash! A 10% fall over a couple of years is the equivalent of about 20-30% fall in real terms, if wages rise by about 4% a yr and inflation is taken into account. The property market needs a rise of 4% annually to tread water, and even that is on the edge, because capital appreciation will not pay for arrangment fees and other costs at that rate for a BTL'r! Let me remind him that 10% is a severe crash, 20% is a slump, etc. etc. I find this all very amusing! A 10% fall would wipe out the initial deposit, resulting in a 100% loss on investment in properties recently brought, And, take into account the foreclosure fees, paying mortgage company for early repayment, recovering arrangement fees, voids during the sale period, etc. and you are looking at a 150 to 200% loss on that investment!! Compare that with a guaranteed (risk free) 5-6% return on government bonds, and rising, I think that institutional investors will head to the hills (they already are, that is why the share prices of house builders and commercial investment funds are plummeting), tho some of your novice BTL investors may buffer losses for the initial period, when their short-term investment becomes a long term investment (just a change in terminology, but the lullaby will make them fell nice and safe).
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
22. planning4acrash said...
Erm, did anybody notice that mr landlord admitted the possibility of a 10% fall? A 10% fall is a crash! A 10% fall over a couple of years is the equivalent of about 20-30% fall in real terms, if wages rise by about 4% a yr and inflation is taken into account. The property market needs a rise of 4% annually to tread water, and even that is on the edge, because capital appreciation will not pay for arrangment fees and other costs at that rate for a BTL'r! Let me remind him that 10% is a severe crash, 20% is a slump, etc. etc. I find this all very amusing! A 10% fall would wipe out the initial deposit, resulting in a 100% loss on investment in properties recently brought, And, take into account the foreclosure fees, paying mortgage company for early repayment, recovering arrangement fees, voids during the sale period, etc. and you are looking at a 150 to 200% loss on that investment!! Compare that with a guaranteed (risk free) 5-6% return on government bonds, and rising, I think that institutional investors will head to the hills (they already are, that is why the share prices of house builders and commercial investment funds are plummeting), tho some of your novice BTL investors may buffer losses for the initial period, when their short-term investment becomes a long term investment (just a change in terminology, but the lullaby will make them fell nice and safe).
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
23. the landlord assocation said...
Bert and all,
I agree that a house price crash is a possibility - it's always a posibility. We thought it was going to happen 2 years ago and 2 years before that but it has not happened.
What I believe is in 'cooling'. I know this word is being used a lot but is the best description I believe. A crash normally happens suddenly without a warning or slow 'cooling'. We can alomst certainly say for certain when onw is coming - the last 2 'crashes' were obvious and instant.
This time around is def different. Some economic variables are very very different and many aspects do not mirror past crashes in the slightest. For me to enter into the economics would take me all day but so I will not start this debate.
A house price crash is widely predicted to happen AND not to happen. What will see I believe is the end of the boom although this could sustain itself. THe peak of the last boom is not a bad place to be. And, it doesn't mean we are about to head into a trough either.
I predict that over the nect 5 years we will see the housing market sustain itself before another growth spurt in 2012 around the time of the olympics. I may of course be wrong (I am not super-human or Mervyn King so have no control over this what-so-ever and will be humble to accept either path).
Regards
24. maddison said...
Cripes! Paul if you are insulting then you are not going to be taken seriously. Remember landlords fortunes are not "dissolving away" at the moment. They might but not at the moment.
25. planning4acrash said...
Maddison, what's wrong with a little banter, the landlord association bite the bait and get all puffed up, so it can be fun to have a little bit of ribbing and light relief.
26. Bert said...
While I'm still on my soap-box...
I've read literally hundreds of articles (no, I'm not obsessed about house-prices, etc!) saying that "experts", "economists", whatever, cannot, and I quote.."...see a house price crash coming". Don't be silly! Of course they can't!!
Talk about a statement of the "bleedin' obvious"!
The whole point of a "crash" in any asset class is that no-one could or did see it coming. If anyone "saw" (and I mean believed their better judgement) any type of downturn coming, what would they do? Sit there and let it happen? No, of course not. As economically rational beings, they would take their gains from BTL or whatever, and in an orderly and calm manner, liquidate the asset for the best possible price and put the proceeds into bonds or something else altogether more agreeable from an investment point of view (where returns would be many times that of the average BTLer). There wouldn't be a house price crash because the market would be liquid (which, in reality, it isn't) and any transitions would happen over months and years as sentiment concerning fundamentals gradually alter. The Government wouldn't intervene, because prices would moderate themselves, first timers can get on that lovely "ladder" and nearly everyone would be happy with real gains of 4 - 5% p.a. However......
My point is that a crash is a sign of past irrational behaviour. Learned and experienced authors on the subject of housing market must be rational, mustn't they, otherwise we wouldn't have read them with such relish, would we? So, they are hardly the ones to blow the whistle on the housing boom they've profited from, are they? These signals must come from the outside.
On the investor front, many (though clearly not all) such investors wouldn't notice changing fundamentals and many are not rational, or even that sophisticated. There are certainly more than a few who can't be bothered to get out of a market that has given them a way to make easy money. Don't forget, all one had to do was go the bank and get their hands on cheap funds to buy an undervalued asset class (which they probably were at the beginning), so who can blame them? Don't you just wish that this could go on forever??
Instead, most investors in this asset class are now more than happy to read benign headlines to re-enforce their beliefs about how clever they've been from the same people who have been blowing the baloon.
Oh dear, take cover!
PS I own a nice house.
27. doomwatch said...
One question. If property is such a big seller right now, then why has my friend (who is renting) been cold called by Foxtons this morning, asking him
if he is going to "buy in St Johns Wood the next 6 months". If we were to believe the hype, surely EAs don't have to do such thinks, as there's 50 odd buyers
chasing some 1 bed box in Scummers Hill ?
28. Bert said...
Landlord. The fact that a crash hasn't happened yet, does not of course, mean that a crash won't happen.
As the IRA said in the '80's and '90's when referring to the success of the police and security forces in foiling attempts at perpetrating atrocities, they said:
"You need to be lucky all the time, we only need to be lucky once".
I think the same logic applies here also. You can be lucky for another year.
29. paul said...
Who or what exactly is "The Landlord Association"?
I mean, we see this person coming over here at what is quite frankly the eleventh hour in the whole debate, proclaiming "I AM THE DIRECTOR OF THE LANDLORD ASSOCIATION", but what differentiates you from a lone, rather desperate little frustrated Buy To Let Bandwagoner that sees his fortune dissolving away, and is desperate to counter the growing tsunami waves of bad news in this sector, with half truths and naiively optimistic misinformation.
What exactly is your organization again? Is it recognised by ANY body other than well ... you?
30. planning4acrash said...
I've had loads of unsolicited marketing from agents recently, including texts, for the first time, from Foxtons.
31. royston said...
Landlord Association,
"I am simply posting a news piece and have no opinions on this what-so-ever."? - I don't think so, mate! With headlines like "House price crash looking unlikely, unfortunately guys!" and from the general tenor of your contributions, you are here to stir sh!t.
32. the landlord assocation said...
Dear Paul,
Who is The Landlord Association? Just because you don not know who we are is a little arrogant wouldn't you say.
Our website is www.landlordexpert.co.uk
And yes, we are recognised by come pretty big names - not that this matters!!
Perhaps you may wish to have a look at our website and the 'about us' links.
You will notice that we are approved by FindaProperty, PrimeLocation and the like. In addition, we are number one landlord news related supplier to Google News.
Please refrain from making wild accusations as to the stature of a large organisation.
Oh, if you want further proof paul please visit Alexa.com who will quickly show you that we are the 15,000 largest website in the UK. This is so because of a very good reason.
Good day to you......PAUL?
Regards,
The Landlord Association Director (just bacause I am and have no reason to lie....??? very odd)
33. planning4acrash said...
Oh, for goodness sake mr landlord, you sound more like a whingey kid the more you post. If you want to be percieved as professional, try acting professional ! Its all getting a bit boring listening to your sanctamonious twaddle.
34. paul said...
No, no - not good enough.
My company website has more hits than that, but it doesn't make my company authoritative to speak for the whole industry, oh and getting sponsored links on other sites wouldn't either.
Let me rephrase the question:
Which PUBLIC bodies is your organization registered with and recognised by? Please list them - ALL OF THEM.
35. the landlord assocation said...
Royston,
Are you a total pratt - I post news for debate and have no feelings one way or another towards the particular news piece as I did not write it.
I have expressed my views but I supply news saying that there will be a crash and that there will not.
Forgive me but the only person stirring s**t is you......sorry!
Regards
36. paul said...
Dear Mr Dean Evans (a.k.a. "The Director of The Landlord Expert")
I have noticed that you recently bought the domain www.landlordexpert.co.uk in late June and have now set up a website with a net domain from those well known providers theice.co.uk (forget the fact that the domain provider is a site that is not even running correctly, and hardly professional-looking).
Dean, you are a fake. An astroturfer. A huckster. You have been exposed as a rather desperate BTL landlord, vainly trying to put on airs and graces to stem the rising tide of bad news to protect your portfolio of liabilities.
Thanks for coming along, Dean.
You can run along now.
37. The Landlord Assocation said...
Paul,
What on earth do I need to prove to you!!!!!
We are an association of landlords - 15,000 of them!!!! What is there to be approved for and why should I waste my time proving something to YOU!
We are the leading association in the UK - I repeat my statement, look at the 'about us' section on our website. It has all the answers for you there.
You don't seem to know very much about this industry and guessing by your spelling are American which comes as no great suprises as a nation you are extremely aggressive and more often than not arrogant. Tell me, what 'public bodies' would the leading body for landlords be a member of??????
I look forward to your response - oh, one more thing - 70 of the 73 Government Associations promote us and are members - I assume this is not good enough for you either???
I suppose evidence will probably result in you saying 'not good enough'.
Well, let me tell you, your argument is not good enough. Finished and point proven. Please now just shush!!!!
38. planning4acrash said...
Landlord, who now is being rude, very professional, I hear business men call people pratts all the time, rising up to the cuss fest challenge (not!). You admitted there could be a crash by suggesting that prices could fall by 10% over the space of a few years. A soft landing is -2 fall to +2% rise, or thereabouts. A 10% rise is like a 5% rise in real terms, whilst a 10% fall is like a 15-20% fall in real terms. Your head is so far up your own arse that you don't understand house market terminology, probably a kiddie during the last crash, you forgot what a crash is and the words fail you!
39. paul said...
Your domain is registered to an individual too. THERE IS NO SUCH RECOGNISED ORGANIZATION AS "THE LANDLORD ASSOCIATION".
Sorry Dean - the whois service never lies.
40. planning4acrash said...
And don't think that a 10% fall would be the end of it, with housing over 20% over valued, the falls would be self reinforcing and, like all cyclical markets, there would be an overshoot. I'd have a look in the dusty cuboard for your P45 mate!
41. Alan said...
Replying to Scott, some evidence.
My mates have just been kicked out of their house in Essex because the landlord defaulted on the mortgage. I thought landlords were a pretty bright bunch but this guy was really dim. The council rehousing people in Grays said that they were often "clearing up after novice landlords" wanting to "get rich quick". My mates are in council accommodation, now.
I therefore submit that there are a lot of suckers still coming out of the woodwork... and doing damage too.
42. planning4acrash said...
Looks like we have a traitor on our hands, bet he works for Nationwide or Foxton's marketing department, tee hee!
43. the landlord assocation said...
Paul,
You have proven nothing......
Our website is new and replaced an old website.
My organisation and my company are not for your approval. We are who we are weather or not you say so.
Thank you for showing your interest in us though you very angry person!!!!
As I have said, look at the about us section of our website and you will see the facts for yourself. Your opinions do not count sorry!
Paul, please do show me your credentials to comment on my business.......As far as I can see you are someone with a lot to say and not much proof.
I have given proof of my credentials as a Director of The Landlord Association with links proving our considerable upstanding within the market. And we have 15,000 members weather you believe it or not.
Please do show me why we should listen to you....I am all ears!!!!
44. planning4acrash said...
Please show me why we should listen to your boring boring yawn rants about how you have no opinions, credentials to your eyeballs and clients coming out of your arse? Say it once and move on, learn to agree to disagree, have some personal social skills, and then maybe, oneday, you may work up to have your first real job, maybe you could become a paper boy? At least then you wonld'nt need to apply your fantastic magerial quality people skills..
45. the landlord assocation said...
Look, I shall in future continue to provide news for your discussion - which, if you are more intelligent than Paul the Fool, will notice relicates the news on my website....the one rated highly and used by 50,000 landlords each month.
I shall now run along - I have real work to do and have money I wish to smell.
This is my last reply, you kids have spoilt it for yourselves. A debate has yet again turned into an angry session of abuse. I'm glad I have helped you release some of your considerable anger that seems to be rife in most of you.
If anyone would like to recieve daily support as a landlord for free than please bare us in mind - we are real honestly!!! lol
Regards
46. Andy said...
Yes TLA - youve been here from 11AM - 2PM, thats 4 hours - am sure someone as important as you will understand that you've let your time management skills fail you today, and what did you accomplish? Keep running and I hope you catch up with your busy life.
47. wage slave said...
'We are who we are weather or not you say so.'
In this contect it is spelt 'whether'.
48. Fedupwithhouseprices said...
Director of the Landlord Association when trying to sound professional please be careful about your spelling. 'Whether or not' is spelt as I just have and not 'weather'. That is of the rainy/sunny/windy kind. I know this isn't relevent to property crashes etc. but when you're trying to come across as a somebody it lets you down rather.
49. dbnazz1 said...
I am new to the forum and have been looking at the comments with some interest.
The LA opinion is interesting, but it just shows that there are so many opinions on the possibility of a HPC. There is also a lot of DIS-INFORMATION, usually by people with a vested interest in talking up the market. Well lets look at the plain old FACTS.
DOMESTIC FACTS first.Residential house prices are actually already falling in the UK at present in several parts of the UK, and in other parts of the country the rate of growth is greatly reducing (this is before the full effect of the interest rate rises has filtered through). Money is already becoming very tight in the economy, with disposable income very low. This is evident by individuals savings being at very low figures (recently reported). What will disposable income be like when the hundreds of thousands of low starter mortgage deals come to an end later this year with the reulting mortgage holders seeing there interest repayments change to a much higher rate. Also the feedback i am getting is that we are starting to see the early stages of BTL owners selling up. This hasn't, then they will sell. Also it seems that the government are looking at increasing the checks and expenses that BTL have to action, this i believe is a way of making BTL less viable, as opposed outlawing BTL.. All of this points towards a big crash IMHO. Recent reports of house prices to rise so that peopkle will need mortgages 10 times their income is just a part of fantasy land. If you think for a moment, if people are struggling at the moment to pay 5 times income mortgage, HOW WILL THEY BE ABLE TO PAY A MORTGAGE THAT IS 10 TIMES INCOME?
INTERNATIONAL. The world economy is looking less rosy by the day. The situation in USA is deteriorating. Spain is looking in a bad way.
Ireland is on a knife edge. All the high asset prices have been caused by a huge expansion in money supply from the banks. We are now entering a period where banks are going to tighten there lending criteria. This will stop rapid house price growth in its tracks. Also, people have borrowed record sums at a period of unrealistic low interest rates. This has largely been due to a general picture of low inflation throughout major economies of the world. This low inflation has been largely due to the emergence of India and china as major exporters and thus supplying goods at deflated prices thus keeping inflation under control. well, wages are rising at a fast rate in places like China, which is pushing prices up. What effect do you think this will have on inflation. thats before you even start to consider the price of oil and other commodities, that are on an upward trend.
Overall the picture is really starting to look far from rosy. I don't think something is going to happen overnight, but the bad times are coming from an economic point of view. Also I think that Gordon Brown is going to realyy mess things up, BIG TIME.
I would be interested to hear other peoples opinions.
50. tyrellcorporation said...
...phew, he's gone! ;)
51. paul said...
"will notice relicates the news on my website"
relicates is not a word.
"please bare us in mind"
BEAR us in mind
"and have money I wish to smell"
Eww. Yeah you run along then.
BYEEEE!
52. the landlord assocation said...
Many apologies fo the spelling mistake.
You are a very petty person. I cannot fathom what you are getting out of this. We have posted some interesting news to aide investors to keep abreast of all information, whether it be good or bad. We haven't done this to offend anyone and yet you are sat at your desk abusing people rather than working.
p.s if you insist on pulling people up on their grammar.....at least get yours correct!!!! What is a contect?! Context I believe you were after.
Anyway I now have some real work to do, so I bid you farewell.
53. Algenon said...
New figures from Halifax and Nationwide indicate house prices grew in June at an annual rate of more than 10 per cent...That's solid by any standard - and will reassure many of us the good times will continue to roll....
Lets see, the very figures that were quoted indicate that the rate of hose price growth slowed.
I for one would not see this as an encouraging sign.
54. talking rot said...
I'm currently working abroad and so can only check the Blog infrequently.
Well done Paul and Planning4acrash. Good points. Nice trick looking up the domain registration. Shame Denzil isn't around either.
I hope The Landlord Association continues to post here. It is only through an intellectually rigorous debate will we be able to show what nonse-sense The Landlord Association spouts.
55. talking rot said...
Planning4acrash
Thanks for your reply to my post this morning, (about Roger Bootle's points on Land Supply and Planning Regs). I can see where you are coming from but I don't think you'll ever cause me to change my mind. So let's agree to disagree. I would like a debate on the role of planning within local authorities because it is not an area which is widely understood; only perceived through a series poor decisions (from the layman's point of view). It is the only way that we, the plebs of Britain, will be able to shake off the vile repressors of the planning authorities and build some really exciting and architecturally challenging homes.
56. uncle chris said...
My goodness - do you lot not have jobs - or are you all part-time like me. If nothing else, LA has spurred us towards a record number of replies to a posting, which may even top some of Glorious Sunshine's antics - remember him?
57. Algenon said...
I too do not fully understand the role of planning.
Our village is just starting a Parish Plan - part of which we would like to docment how we would like the looks of our village to be preserved - based on the input of all the villagers.
Well, at the last meeting, the District Coucil turned up and told us not to bother to document this as then already have a district plan and will ignore any input from the village - whats all that about!!!
58. planning4acrash said...
"it is not an area which is widely understood" Correction, you don't understand it. I have an MSc, PGDip and a few years experience in it, there are countless research articles, dissertations, etc on the subject, but it encompasses the entire built environment and all the social environmental impacts that involves, and interacts with all types of professionals that have anything to do with the environment as a whole. A major planning application can require awareness and assessment of a case in relation to tens, even hundreds of disciplines, from social housing, economics, design, historic conservation, trasport, highways, flood risk, planning for climate change, resource sustainability, amenity, daylight/sunlight, joe blogg's concerns, councillors, politics, job creation, industry, loss of countryside/open space, trees, biodiversity, you name it, planners deal with it.
So it takes a lot to understand planning, as with any other complex science/art/discipline. So I understand that you as a lay person may not understand it, this is to be expected, but to assume that, because you don't understand a subject, that it isn't understood, is slightly self centred. Its like me saying that I don't understand social work, and coming to the conclusion that it is not understood and that social workers aren't required. Apply the same logic to teaching, infact everything else that I don't understand and you get the picture. At least you admit that you don't understand it, so, in that context, a healthy dose of self doubt wouldn't go a miss. I'm not aware of what you do, but I wouldn't dismiss your profession out of hand without a full understanding of it.
59. planning4acrash said...
Apologies TR, I didn't mean to come accross badly, you put up a nice post just then, I just reacted a bit badly when you suggested that planning is not understood. I hope you understand!
60. Orwell said...
L.A.,
You sound quite reasonable in this. I too think that prices are about 10-20% overvalued best case scenarion and up to 65% overvalued worst case scenario. These will come down and all the financial institutions now price in IR's at 6.3% 2 yars hence (I think possibly 7.5%).
It is simply a question of many people getting involved when they do not have the means.
I am a solicitor and will always advise you if you have a problem (E Mail address wil be required) and give you kind regards.
61. Crash Bang Wallop said...
just doen a little research, basically, the market is slowing in parts, falling in others. Enquiries have seriously dropped and the real effect of the rate rises and the dodgey economy Brown is about to drop us in is yet to be truely felt!. So Mr Landlord assoc, i have read some of your waffle and all i can say is keep deluding yourself! it has started......... hahahahahahahaha! evil laugh!
If my spelling is bad - you can get out your red pen again and point out my errors if it makes you feel better!
62. talking rot said...
No worries P4C - no offence taken. I think there is a tendency towards apathy unless an issues has a direct effect. Alas, macro-level decisions may not be well understood at the micro-level.
63. waitingfor hpc said...
my mate has just been told he must move flats . His landlord has gone BUST. His fixed mortage on the property has gone from £700 to £1100.
Perhaps you should post that on the landlord website!