Friday, Jul 13, 2007
Home.co.uk latest house price survey
Firstrung: House prices surge by 2.3% in the South East of England in the past month - Home.co.uk
Asking Prices for homes in England and Wales are up 0.8% this month and are up 5.7% from a year ago. Scottish Asking Prices have soared by 21.2% year-on-year (YoY). Greater London Asking Prices have increased 12.8% YoY, but this month's rise of only 0.5% may now be signalling a slowdown in price growth...Asking Prices in the South East surged by 2.3% this month and 8.6% YoY. Asking Prices in the North suffered a fall of 2.0% this month but rose 1.8% YoY.
Posted by converted lurker @ 09:28 AM (185 views) Add Comment
21 Comments
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1. Scott said...
I think the victims in this forum should stop waiting for prices to get sensible in the south and just move north. The north is cheaper, safer, less ethnically mixed, cleaner, less congested, and more friendly.
2. paul said...
Asking prices?
Asking is not getting.
3. planning4acrash said...
One would expect a surge in asking prices during the first period of a crash. Its like the berievement process, you get denial first, etc, etc,.
4. uncle chris said...
I'm not sure what's happening here, but I have seen a huge surge in large £400,000+ houses in my region of North-East Wales, and I mean huge. Whereas last year there may have been 5 or 6 in the particular area I've been monitoring, today Rightmove lists around 30. Given that the average wage in the area is around £16,000, I do wonder who is going to be able to buy these big house and why so many people have suddenly decided to sell. However, they will appear in the 'Asking Price' statistics and may well contribute to the rises seen.
5. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
"Asking Prices in the North suffered a fall of 2.0% this month but rose 1.8% YoY"
Woah there - so (admittedly these are asking prices) there has been neither revenue nor capital appreciation on all those BTL/BTS properties in the north? Not only are landlords now subsidising the morgages but inflation has been beating up their capital over the last 12 months too?
6. Dstars said...
I do not believe those Scottish prices for a second. What is more likely is that more houses are going to 'fixed price' rather than 'offers over'. ('Fixed' is the last resort of the insatiably greedy).
When a seller goes from O/O to fixed they usually bung 40% onto the price and hope for 35% and get (or used to get) 20-30%. I expext this stealth amount to deflate very quyickly indeed. Thus Scottish p[rices will look much more robust tghen their English counterparts; but real prices will deflate by around 30% without us even noticing.
Asking prices have simply not risen by more than 20% this year. I study prices in Scotland quite closely and I am not delusional (although some asking prices may be).
'Asking prices'? I just love the way when they go down it's only ever by miniscule amounts. How on earth do they arrive at decimal points on these calculations?
How I would love to write a piece on the way house prices are 'analysed'. (But I'd have to kidnap an analyst.) My strong suspicion is that they are not. Prices are 'picked' in order to apply the correct amount of spin.
Houses are not so easily quoted in single prices. As I keep barking about: If we could price houses appropriately we could build synthetic indexes with spreads narrower than the English channel.
7. Dandare500 said...
In my opinion, asking prices are bound to go up as people want to get "the market price". So what do they do? They put the house up a bit more so they can haggle to what they wanted in the first place. Of course this depends where you are in the country. I did this last year to sell my house in East Mids. Here now everything goes for under the asking price as it has for well over a year now. Perhaps they are further down the line? On the other hand these people might lose out if they are too greedy with the asking price. It is a fine line. I would not want to leave it so late that is for sure, Especially with the media turning in on itself!
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9. george monsoon said...
SURGE>>> almost like a tidalwave of increase..
This is what I expected, Southeast where all the money is, and at the very top of the market 440k +
Its the rich getting richer ... . . .
The real story for the other 98% of society is now in reverse, because people are waking up to the fact that they have been diddled and somehow nobody saw it coming..
10. realist75 said...
Asking prices are well up on our street, but no one is even coming to view. The enthusiasm to sell resulted in a huge glut of properties on the market, that thought they were avoiding HIPS and/or the HPC. Just at the point when interest rates WERE rising. Sellers on our road are in shock that potential buyers have completely run a mile. 'But, but it's supply and demand and demand is.....'
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12. dbnazz1 said...
There is lots of MIS-INFORMATION about. The key phrase in the above article is 'year on year'. For example, in Scotland, the year on year percentage change may be high, but the average house prices in scotland have been falling over recent months! the high YOY change is only high because of high growth arround about a year ago.
13. converted lurker said...
stands to reason that in a desperate rush to sell prices will increase as the more expensive property owners look to 'top out'. Its those in the S.E. with the 300K mortgages on 500K houses that are bricking it IMHO
14. dbnazz1 said...
Converted lurker.
I am new to this site and was just a little unsure about your comments above.
Why do you feel that asking prices will increase because more expensive property coming onto the market. I was thinking that if more properties come onto the market wouldn't this competition between sellers cause prices to fall?
15. Dbnazz1 said...
Converted lurker.
I am new to this site and was just a little unsure about your comments above.
Why do you feel that asking prices will increase because more expensive property coming onto the market. I was thinking that if more properties come onto the market wouldn't this competition between sellers cause prices to fall?
16. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
17. Hotairmail said...
I've been trawling through Home.co.uk's website looking at house price trends over the last year town by town.
More interesting than the (somewhat erratic) house price trends is the volume information at the bottom of each page.
Starting in West Yorkshire where prices are said to have slowed I looked at a number of towns and cities including Leeds, Bradford, York, Harrogate and all show a marked decline in volumes year on year of as much as 40%
Leeds is typical:
http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=leeds&lastyear=1
They do say that house price declines have historically been largely by volume adjustments whilst general inflation does its work and that this takes typically about 5 years. The current house price inflation figures may be being distorted by the mix of properties being sold.
I then looked at a variety of places in the South: Croydon, Epsom, Sutton, Redhill, Banstead, Woking, Crystal Palace, Wimbledon, Richmond, Fulham and Clapham. They have all had marked reductions in volumes year on year. Indeed I have not found a place where volumes have risen!
Can it be declared that a period of adjustment has now started?
18. inbreda said...
dbnazz1 - it will, but it will take a bit of time.
Property owners looking to sell at the top will be putting their properties on the market at the maximum feasible price. In a few months time when they realise that no-one is interested in buying, they will start to lower prices.
Remember we are talking about average ASKING price here. I could put my bedsit (if I owned one!) on the market for a trillion pounds. That would increase the average asking price for the whole country, but it doesn't mean anyone is going to buy my bedsit. When i realise this I will reduce it to, say, half a trillion. That is the point in time you'll see the average coming down. This is the first phase as planning4acrash says above - denial.
propertysnake.com is going to be an interesting site to watch over the next few months.
19. sold 2 rent 1 said...
This reminds me of Dublin last summer/Autumn.
Prices were rocketing up until June/July. Within the space of 6-8 weeks the market completely turned as every EA told us.
We eventually sold in Jan 2007 for 370K EUR down from an expected price of 420K EUR.
That was down a whopping 12% from the expected price.
Prices are officially down 2% in Ireland in Q1 2007.
The real story is hidden and much worse.
We are very close to this point in the UK and IMHO by November sentiment in housing would have turned.
The real UK HP figures won't show falls until Q1/Q2 2008
20. Cornish Pirate said...
I agree with post #3.
Where I live the average wage is £14000, today there are 58 houses for over £1000000 for sale. There are 120 for more than £500000, which is 36 times the local average salary.
People that can afford these properties have a fair degree of financial acumen and know when the going is good. When the trophy home owning financiers run for the hills, its time to get the jogging shoes on.
21. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
dbnazz1, for asking prices when things first hit the market:
5,6,7 - average=6
5,6,7,9 - average=6.75
If this is indeed the case, as you say, we would expect to see them drop soon.
On the other hand, if people in less expensive houses can't now get credit, we may be seeing:
6,7,8 - average=7
Because only the higher end can make a move.
i.e. we may be averaging across a different slice of the housing stock.