Thursday, Jul 12, 2007
Falling leaves this Autumn
Telegraph: Borrowers 'at breaking point over debts'
Ian Perry, spokesman for Rics said: "House prices have finally started to cool significantly for the first time since the recent mini boom in the housing market got under way in 2006. "Interest rates hikes have begun to affect the psychology of the market with potential new buyers starting to think twice before buying a home. "The July rate increase may not mark the peak of the current interest rate cycle and earlier rate rises have yet to fully filter through. "A softer landing for the housing market is in store as we move into the Autumn." RICS is basically saying we ll have a crash in the Autumn... in their book "softer" means harder
Posted by confused76 @ 10:20 AM (160 views) Add Comment
16 Comments
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1. Orwell said...
I wonder if there is any possibility that Gordon Brown scrapped this casino plan, because he wished to encourage people or be seen to encourage people not to go into debt? If this is the case it is very cynical or manipulative move on his part because he has been the greatest author of debt in the last 10 years. We shall see.
2. paul said...
Say after me "THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A SOFT LANDING".
3. wage slave said...
"cool significantly"
So first it was 'cool' and now it's 'cool significantly'. What's next ?
4. Scott said...
What I hate about the UK and Europe in particular is that we promote free speech until an issue becomes too sensitive. In light of recent events in London, the EU are suggesting we stop using the "m" word (muslim). How long until they oppose the "c" word (crash/correction). Maybe this site and propertysnake will be shut down.
5. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
freeze, stop and drop?
6. japanese uncle said...
Cooling Britania!!
7. talking rot said...
It's alright. Mrs Flange knows that there can't be any cooling because of Global Warming. So this is all none-sense then. It's now time for her spray on tan to be topped up.
8. Orwell said...
Where is Mrs Flange these days anyway?
9. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Vince Cable, the Lib Dem treasury spokesman, said last night: "Personal debt as a proportion of income has risen from 105 per cent in 1997 to 164 per cent last year - the highest ever recorded and the highest in the developed world.
Anyone know what TOTA UK debt as a % of GDP is?
10. confused76 said...
So let me get this right... is it cooling because the housing demand is declining or because the supply is increasing?
I think neither... and never there was a "housing" supply/demand demand issue, the demand was artificially propped up by speculators who wanted to flip properties in one year for hefty cash gains and naive BTLers that are now left in a mess. That was it, period.
Immigration and non-doms are red herrings, used by the property press to keep momentum for a few more days. Their talk makes no sense. So why are house prices in Warsaw skyrocketing? people are EMIGRATING from Poland and the Polish tax code is not friendly
11. confused76 said...
Oh yes... and why are prices skyrocketing in BELFAST, there is no, zero, nada, zip immigration into Ulster, and no Russian tycoons... yet house prices have reached London average
Just relax, there is no supply demand issue here, it's a pure fantasy
12. planning4acrash said...
The market always knows best? Huh?! Not whilst its driven by greedy and naieve individuals who don't know understand the market they operate!
13. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
14. Jonathan said...
And why are prices skyrocketing in Scotland, where there is a declining population.
15. harold said...
"The market always knows best? "
Well, yes it does - or put it this way, it knows a lot better than a government bureaucrat. The problem is that free markets only work effectively if you have 'sound' money, not the Mick mouse money / cheap fiat credit we currently operate with, which creates all sorts of malinvestments.
16. David@mycbi. Co. Uk said...
Crash of '89 - All the signs are here, have been for sometime now.
Nigela's dad had rates falsely low in the 80's, old handbag created the share craze and released RTB - so, now, falesly low interest rates, BBR 3.5% and the idjits can't remember base rates of 6% 7% 8% and they forget that traditionally, and to make a profit, mortgage rates are most always 1.5% to 2% over BBR - hence the hefty fee's now charged to get a decent low, fixed rate!
Credit cards have replaced shares and even the rate tart interest free switchers fall in to some trouble paying off thier cards so even they take first a personal loan to consolidate, then a secured loan for a better rate or longer term and so lower monthly payments before remortgae of the whole lot just to start again.
RTB house came on to the market but have been replaced (by a different type of people) by BTL sheep.
Now, rates won't stop at 6% - the next rise being in September and will surely hit 7% by this time next year, latest.
The crash proper starts August Bank Holiday 2007 (just as it did same time 1989) but agents (the lepers) and pundits (other strain of idjit) won't call it the crash of 2007 but of 2008 or 2009.
Repossessions will sail away again and the poor sods who were sold IVA's will very quickly realise they are personally no better off than bankrupt, not enough money for the kids to go on school trips even - still thier IP will have had a fat fee to begin and will be collecting cash every month so they'll be okay, might even buy BMV's with thier fee's!
Supply and demand? Pah! Where do they think the demand lives at present, in a superloo in Hampstead? Sorry but they are only 2 berth bijou bunks, the demand will, as it always has, will, stay where it is now - with family friends or squalor by comparison to what they dream of - and they'll be moving out of private rented as much as possible, or to smaller or cheaper rents to the BTL's get stuffed again, somemore!
Crash? It's here, (at last) make no bone about it!
Gotta go now, arrange a remortgage for someone consoldiating defaulted credit cards et al - and one of the couple is a teacher, the other works for ............................... Nat West!