Thursday, Jun 28, 2007
What goes up must ???
Thisismoney: Property prices surge again
Nationwide said today that property values increased by 1.1% during the month, more than double the rate of increase seen in May.
Posted by p. o. o. r @ 09:08 AM (156 views) Add Comment
28 Comments
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1. royston said...
Fools and their money are easily parted. The smart money left for the hills some time ago and is well dug in by now!
2. confused76 said...
but financial markets tell you a different, toxic story... no bouncing back of uk mortgage lenders stocks today, no positive reaction to nationwide price index... why?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NRK.L&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HBOS.L&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BB.L&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
3. inbreda said...
We've already established from the mortgage lending figures that there are fewer buyers, and those desperate few that remain are borrowing much larger amounts.
Not sure we've had a surge in prices, with such low FTB activity, a drop in buyers and an increase in buyers borrowing levels before.
Higher prices are exactly what you would expect as the market runs out of steam.
4. Geaton9000 said...
I think the only people who believe this kind of thing are those who are stretched to the limit with a 100% interest only mortgage on a wooden built flat - they would not want to believe anything else, would they? Also the lenders are desperately trying to keep the market pumped up by issuing these kind of comments - they are no doubt worried that the collateral backing their loans is not worth what they want it to be. As for fools and their money, the thing that puzzels me is how the two ever got together in the first place!
5. maddison said...
Err no! Lower prices is what you would expect if the market runs out of steam! Just face facts it is still motoring on and unless the bank raises interest rates significantly ie 0.5% or more and some people start losing their jobs will the market turn good and proper. However my prediction is that certain areas of the country will see falls but London will carry on and distort the figures
6. Davros said...
Surely this must be the top of the market??
7. El Papasito said...
Is it not that it the top end of the market is unaffected by rising rates or fears. It is the lower end of the market that is stagnating. So the median sale rises.
8. David20040_0 said...
An increase of 0.25% by the BoE will make no difference and house prices are still powering ahead.
They are not going to crash if they can be sustained at this level and are still rising.
9. royston said...
Low numbers of units sold make month-on-month comparisons unreliable. They could go up, down or stay the same. The point is that there isn't enough activity to get a reliable average. Without reliable averages, you can't get a reliable measure of change - i.e. garbage in, garbage out!
10. Orwell said...
Excellnt !
My toilet in Westminster is now worth 3 trillion trillion trillion pounds !
E J Thrib (written from the asylum)
11. David20040_0 said...
But until rates hit 6% house prices will continue to grow and that is if rates hit 6% at all.
12. Planning4acrash said...
Last crash prices went on a final mad dash rally before plummeting. We could see a few more months of meteroic inflation before a collapse late in the Autumn or early next year, possibly triggered by 6% interest rates.
13. Tommo said...
You'd be an idiot to think the market will keep on truckin.
14. Mike said...
it appears the banks who need the business are not being totally honest, most parts of the UK are seeing prices drop...
15. sovietuk said...
Headline statistics like this are meaningless unless you can be bothered to look in the detail and methodology of the calculations. As Maddison says "certain areas of the country will see falls but London will carry on and distort the figures". Other recent surveys suggest that many other regions are experiencing falls so the main conclusion to be drawn from the headlines is that Nationwide are blatantly trying to push up expectations with misleading averages and have now exposed their game for what it is.
16. george monsoon said...
What if, and just what if, the sales count is actually falling, but the only houses selling are at the top end of the market, these will continue to rise?
17. confused76 said...
George
you are right. look at price 13 of the Land Registry report
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/hpir0607.pdf
18. confused76 said...
... I meant look at "page 13" of the report, of course
19. George Monsoon said...
Interesting...
The only houses rising in value are over 250 grand. Who on here could afford a 250 grand mortgage, Even with a 10% deposit (25 K) you would still need to be earning in excess of 70 thousand a year... Nobody in the North west earns that kind of ludicrous money.
20. george monsoon said...
Interesting...
The only houses rising in value are over 250 grand. Who on here could afford a 250 grand mortgage, Even with a 10% deposit (25 K) you would still need to be earning in excess of 70 thousand a year... Nobody in the North west earns that kind of ludicrous money.
21. confused76 said...
David,
Like you can say that people predicting a crash have "always" been proven wrong... to date,
I can argue that newspaper economists have been proven wrong as well...
"we are in an environment of low inflation forever"
"interest rates will stay below 5% forever"
"the yield curve will always be inverted"
...
I would say both camps seem to have been off the mark... now you say "IR hit 6%... if"...
let's wait and see... I make no forecast
22. royston said...
GM,
"Who on here could afford a 250 grand mortgage"?
If you bought a £100k house 10 years ago - worth £200k today, you only need a £50k mortgage. That's who is buying! The banks will bend over backwards to lend to them because they have so much equity in their property, their is a huge cushion before any price drop impinges on the value of their collateral (i.e. the house). By comparison, the banks and building societies are probably now tightening up lending requirements at the lower end - first time buyers, small BTLers, cheap properties, etc.. Also, a lot of these middle to high end buyers sold last year, moved into rented, hoped to buy cheaply with cash and were shocked at the spike up in house prices in the meantime. They are now panicking and clambering to get back in, "before it's too late".
23. confused76 said...
David, again
"An increase of 0.25% by the BoE will make no difference and house prices are still powering ahead.
They are not going to crash if they can be sustained at this level and are still rising."
No this means you are looking at charts, ignoring fundamentals. Home sales are down 10% yoy. that is a hell of a change.
Drop of 20+% volumes for properties <150k
"They are not going to crash if they can be sustained at this level and are still rising."
yeah, the weather is good if the sun shines... so what
24. royston said...
This market is being propelled by the after-glow of the after-burners. Some of you are saying "it's still hot, I can feel it." That doesn't change the fact that all the fuel is gone! Those of us who know that will be better prepared for what's coming than those of you who don't.
25. David20040_0 said...
Face it they aren't going to crash they are now rising even faster than before, where is this supposed slowdown? It isn't happening!
26. paul said...
But what about volumes?
If there is only one house sold at 10% above the price last year, kerching! Nationwide publish a rise in prices.
Statistical sleight of hand at work here ...
27. Tom H said...
Ok, it all goes pear-shaped this Autumn. What do you invest in? Currencies are way to risky right now.
If a bank goes bust how safe is your cash? I thought by law you stand to lose a maximum of 10% in this case? Am I wrong?
Gold! Everyone tells me gold in times of trouble! Opinions on this please?
Apologies basic questions for you lot!
28. inbreda said...
You are right paul, but at the end of the day it is still a ponzi scheme and destined to collapse.
It only means that when the inevitable happens, it will be more difficult to conceal.