Friday, Jun 08, 2007
UK house prices not overvalued - NHPAU
Firstrung: UK house prices not overvalued - NHPAU
Article from Bloomberg with quotes from Stephen Nickell, who is to chair The National Housing and Planning Advice Unit (NHPAU). It is disappointing to read direct quotes from Mr Nickell suggesting that he believes house prices are not currently over valued.
Posted by david20040_0 @ 01:12 PM (143 views) Add Comment
17 Comments
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1. The Capitalist said...
Does he own shares in Persimmon?
Can explain record low yields on property? Record PE ratios on houses?
Credit bubble is nearing its end, with global raising of IRs - then we'll see if prices remain high.
2. David20040_0 said...
They MUST be overvalued by now!
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7. Phil said...
I hate to say it but having looked at this website for the past year, cant you guys admit you were wrong, there is going to be no house price crash any time soon, and as it says on another article, even if they fall back 20% that is only taking us back to where we where 2 years ago and then they will almost certainly rocket up again, money is cheap, houses are not!
Phil (depressed by facing the truth ;-(
8. paul said...
NHPAU - No Houses Priced Above Usual
NHPAU - Now Helping People Acommodate Unclear
NHPAU - No Housing Problems Anywhere Upheld
9. dugmug said...
Department for Comunities and Local Government press release: "A National Housing and Planning Advice Unit has been established by the Government to provide independent advice on improving housing market affordability."
So if the Chair of that organisation says that the market is not overvalued, that means there'll be no crash so he'll keep his job then? Mmm, used to be on the MPC at the time they cut rates to deliberately stimulate the economy, including the housing market, to ward off a possible recession in the wake of 9/11 - now he's pretending thier actions actually had no effect?
"In most normal markets, if the price of the good rises because of an increase in demand there's a supply response,'' Nickell said, speaking from his office at Oxford University, where he is a professor. "In the U.K. housing market, if the price goes up, there's no supply response.''
In the years from 1990/91 to 2005/06, when were the most new dwellings built? 2nd highest = 2004/05 with 206,779 new dwellings. Highest = 2005/06 with 213,717 new dwellings. Number of newly completed dwellings has been rising every year, in fact, since 2001/02, mirroring the rising boom in prices. Maybe there needs to be more, maybe the response needs to be quicker, but to say the market does not respond at all is a flat lie (I don;t belive someone in his position is not aware of the figures). He's a toad.
This bloke is a very experienced economist with many years of experience working in high academic positions in world-renowned educational establishments.
10. dugmug said...
Sorry, didn't finish...
This bloke is a very experienced economist with many years of experience working in high academic positions in world-renowned educational establishments. So he must know better than this. Just shows that anyone will risk their professional reputation for a buck nowadays.
11. Davros said...
Well house prices are already dropping in most areas of the country. So much for that then.
12. taffee said...
did not all the banks pile into property just before the last crash.....did not equitable and standard life sell at the bottom of the stockmarket in 2003?
demand is clearly panic buying and investors who are expecting price increases.
13. Beaker said...
We should also point out that this government think tank is also currently recruiting boardmembers. It is open to members of the construction industry or people with a large amount of experience in the housing industry...
..and then they come up with the idea of 'you need to build more'? - no sh*t sherlock.
14. confused76 said...
Phil said...
"I hate to say it but having looked at this website for the past year, cant you guys admit you were wrong, there is going to be no house price crash any time soon, and as it says on another article, even if they fall back 20% that is only taking us back to where we where 2 years ago..."
Phil, I speak for myself here, I would be glad even if prices stagnate or go down 5% for a while. If prices fall back 20% is a CRASH. Latest entrants will go into negative equity and then there is no limit to the freefall. Economy has been on the fast lane for the past 2 years, so why would you expect a crash? Prices do not crash just if you check this web site and stare at the numbers. Prices will crash the next time the UK economy slows down, bonuses are cut and unemployment goes up... prices will crash because they have gotten so ahead of fundamentals, and because economic migrants will pack and leave when there is no money to be made here. Look at what is happening in R. of Ireland as we speak. When that happened last time here?... that was not a million years ago, it was in 2002 here in London... I can t believe how short a memory people have. I remember my colleagues who lost their jobs, they were in tears... "we have just bought our place, how can we cope with the mortgage now?" Of course I felt sorry for them.
There is a sense of financial irresponsibility in the air today, just as in 2000-01. And this latest pundit from the latest government agency that predicts prices will go up for the next 20 years is another disgrace!
Don t people f@***g know when to shut up!!! What is he trying to achieve? Keeping exhuberance in the market? is he happy house prices become 10x salaries? is that a sign of a healthy economy? is the government going to do anything about it? What is their target? 20x salaries?
15. enuii said...
Just been on the C&G's mortgage calculator, my it has changed since my last visit, the calculator is very rigid now asking more questions, boy their lending practises have tightened. Put the average UK salary in of £23K and chose their cheapest fixed rate deal (6.15%) which gave me a max mortgage total of £101K with a 5% deposit. This mere 4.5 x mortgage is the max that they will put their neck out for so where the hell is a 10x salary mortgage (as being bandied around by the press today) going to come from, by my rough reckoning interest rates would have to drop to about 3% to make a 10x salary mortgage even possible. Time for a drink!
16. Einstein said...
I'm confused, how many of these 'experts' in such influential decision making roles or media limelight have vested interests? How many of these players at the MPC, RICS, lenders or even estate agencies are:
- home owners;
- second home owners;
- BTL enthusiasts (amateur or professional);
- have children who are first time buyers;
or dare I say...
- renters?
In some industries these things are of interest with respect to neutrality, objectivity and the declaration of conflicts of interest... does this apply to the housing sector too?
17. Cww said...
Stephen Nickell was one of those MPC members who went against his boss and voted for that rate cut in 2005. I guess his reward for that is to chair this yet another useless NuLabour quango earning, or rather getting a fatcat salary and unlimited expenses...