Thursday, Jun 21, 2007
This surely must be a record low?
Firstrung: First time buyers now at alarming low of 8.9% - NAEA
"I am alarmed that month after month the percentage of first time buyers in the market is dropping and we are now faced with the worrying figure of just 8.9% of first time buyers in the marketplace" - NAEA President, Stewart Lilly
Posted by converted lurker @ 04:13 PM (152 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
QED RIP HPI. HPC ASAP ;)
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
CL,
Will your website firstrung be finished when the figure hits near zero?
Hope you are nmaking backup plans?
3. confused76 said...
"The number of sales reported per agent remained level with 13 houses being sold per NAEA agent, the same as the previous month. This indicates that the market remains stable despite the uncertainty surrounding new legislation and continuing interest rate changes. However, the figure is still lower then the same time last year, when on average 15 sales per agent were made."
we will smell estate-agent roast at BBQs this summer!
4. sovietuk said...
Just been looking on the propertysnake website, the % reductions seem to have been getting much larger in the last couple of weeks. Outside of London, it doesn't look to me that there is any house price inflation at all, infact quite the opposite with marked decreases in prices. Roll on negative equity.
5. speculatorone said...
You know what agents are like, they will be inflating house prices right up to the end. Good news in my area, one particularly bad agent has disspeared off the radar, the first of many I hope.
6. paul said...
I'm quite sure converted lurker's site will be kept busy for some time. First Time Buyers will be gone, but not forgotten.
Seriously though, this figure must be as low as it can get before a crash. It will never be zero, because there will always be some activity, but 8% is astonishing. And that's not a cyclical trend wither.
Statistcially, this should be one of the busiest periods there is for selling activity.
7. Alan said...
The percentage will not drop much lower because there will always be loving parents who want to help their (FTB) kids.
There isn't a performance indicator for showing love and solidarity with your nearest and dearest. By the time politicians get to cabinet minister rank they've erased love and solidarity from their conciousness - hence no statistics exist!
8. Planning4acrash said...
Yes Paul, this should be the busy period. I've always thought that this part of the year would hide a crash, expect more news during the quiet months for the market!
9. converted lurker said...
TBH, I reckon Firstrung's always been way way ahead of the curve =;¬) It's also an honest straightforward proposition that is ideally suited for execution on the web IMHO. Being a simple idealist I hope for a correction that FTBs can take advantage of and we see prices return to 2002 levels - when we started trading off line
10. george monsoon said...
Not wanting to sound too optimistic, but things are looking good for a correction.
I may yet be able to afford a home of my own before I retire.
11. wage slave said...
Things are looking good for a correction. In a couple of years you'll hear people saying 'can you believe they paid £xxx for that place ?'
12. Benedict said...
How low can the first time buyer percentage go though? In terms of the supply demand imbalance the FTB percentage isn't that useful on its own. The number of new FTBs (plus foreign people who aren't really FTB's buying places here? not sure how it's calculated) plus any expansion of buy to let or second homes or splitting of households gives the new entrants. The number of probate sales, people leaving the country / moving in with someone else / contracting BTL etc gives the exits. Demand's only going to slacken if entrants - exits - new homes < 0 surely? The FTB figure's historically low, but the demographic shifts to additional households and foreign entrants are historically high combined with a historically low house building rate (and a historically low death rate maybe, let's blame the elderly for living too long and tying up far too much good real estate) so the low FTB figure might not be slowing demand in the slightest.