Thursday, Jun 14, 2007
Market activity down
Times: House price inflation slows
The number of new properties coming onto on the market increased at the fastest pace in the survey’s history.After falling for five consecutive months, buyer numbers stabilized in May. Confidence fell for the seventh consecutive month to the lowest level since August 2005 - well below the survey’s long run average. Capital Economics said that the RICS report signalled the early stages of a marked weakening in activity, if not yet prices.
Posted by confused76 @ 11:39 AM (153 views) Add Comment
10 Comments
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1. David20040_0 said...
In total contrast to the Telegraph article posted below.
2. confused76 said...
There is a lot of spin in the RICS report
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/06/13/afx3819581.html
"the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said a balance of +24 pct of its members reported house prices rising in May, lower than the 29 pct in April and below the +26 pct predicted."
Therefore 66% of RICS members reported prices static or falling. Note that 61% of "static" RICS prices in April grew to 66%... not small change in just one month!!
3. confused76 said...
OOPS.... I made a mistake... it was not intentional spin!!
Therefore 76% of RICS members reported prices static or falling. Note that 71% of "static" RICS prices in April grew to 76% in May... not small change in just one month!!
4. confused76 said...
Sorry again, now I get it...
"In its monthly survey of the sector, RICS said a balance of plus 24 pct of its members reported house prices rising in May, lower than the 29 pct in April and below the plus 26 pct predicted."
The number of surveyors reporting rising (and maybe also stable... who knows?) prices is 24% greater than the number reporting a fall.
Therefore that means that of the total number of surveyors...
1.24 / (1.24 + 1.00) = 55.4% are reporting price rises
and 44.6% are reporting falls
5. george monsoon said...
Confused by name....... . . . .. .
That aside, its looking good for FTB's
6. bidin'matime said...
Confused - I dont think they are clever enough to work out percentages of percentages - I think they mean 62% reported rises and 38% reported falls, so they conclude that 24% more reported rises than reported falls.
7. Wage Slave said...
They probably cut and paste these figures in from a previous report anyway.
8. royston said...
Did any of you see my posting last week, where I showed a link to a house that Foxtons had on the market? The house was a wreck and was not selling, so Foxtons jacked up the price by 27% in two separate steps over a 12 month period. I believe EAs have some non-sale properties on their books that they use to pump up the average house price. If this was a regulated market, that practice would be called 'market manipulation'! But, of course, the residential property market is not regulated, so these cowboys can do whatever they want. There are no laws or regulations to break.
9. confused76 said...
I stand by my calculation (the last one)
" they are clever enough to work out percentages of percentages"
I think they are clever enough to calculate % of % and so they can make a 10.7% (= 55.35% - 44.65%) spread into a 24% difference!! what a spin!
10. Benedict said...
http://www.rics.org/NR/rdonlyres/EA918ACD-DE5E-4FC1-B008-26FFD26F9EA8/0/RICSHousingMarketSurveyMay2007Public.pdf has the full report if anyone's interested. 40% say a rise, 7% say a fall, seasonally adjusted there's a balance of 24%.
Seasonally adjusted balance of +58% in London though.